Will Buffett’s $10 Billion Bet On Natural Gas Go Bust? | OilPrice.com (2024)

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Will Buffett’s $10 Billion Bet On Natural Gas Go Bust? | OilPrice.com (1)

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews.

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By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jul 18, 2020, 6:00 PM CDT

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Will Buffett’s $10 Billion Bet On Natural Gas Go Bust? | OilPrice.com (2)

On the day on which Dominion Energy and Duke Energy canceled the Atlantic Coast natural gas pipeline, Dominion Energy said it would be selling substantially all of its gas transmission and storage assets to an affiliate of Berkshire Hathaway. For Dominion Energy, the nearly US$10-billion deal, including debt assumption, is part of the company’s push to zero-carbon electric generation by 2050.

For Warren Buffett’s conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway, it was the first major acquisition since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, and the biggest acquisition in four years.

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While there are growing calls from environmentalists that natural gas should follow coal’s fate and start being dumped from power generation because it’s not as clean as the ‘cleaner-than-coal bridge fuel toward renewables’ narrative would like us to think, Warren Buffett is unfazed.

Buffett is looking at the asset the way he has always done with his investments – buy cheap assets that very few others are willing to buy. And betting that these assets will deliver returns.

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Buffett’s bet on natural gas comes at a time when U.S. natural gas prices slumped to a 25-year-low, while natural gas is set to continue to dominate utility-scale electricity generation for years to come.

In 2019, natural gas accounted for 38 percent of utility-scale electricity generation in the United States, followed by coal with 23 percent, nuclear with 20 percent, and renewables including hydroelectric with 17 percent, according to EIA data.

Natural gas continues to displace coal-fired electricity generation, and so do wind and solar, but still, natural gas is expected to be the biggest source of power generation over the next few years.

Buffett’s US$10-billion bet on natural gas infrastructure shows that the billionaire investor believes that natural gas hasn’t run its course, regardless of what environmentalists and climate-conscious investors think.

Related: Oil Market Tightens, But Second Wave Looms

Berkshire Hathaway Energy is buying Dominion Energy’s assets that include over 7,700 miles of natural gas transmission lines, 900 billion cubic feet of operated natural gas storage with 364 billion cubic feet of company-owned working storage capacity, and 25 percent in the Cove Point LNG export, import, and storage facility in Maryland.

“We are very proud to be adding such a great portfolio of natural gas assets to our already strong energy business,” Buffett said in a statement.

Berkshire Hathaway Energy will thus own 18 percent of all interstate natural gas transmission in the United States, up from 8 percent now, according to CNBC.

The fact that this acquisition was the first one that Buffett saw as attractive after the pandemic sent markets into turmoil in March suggests that the Omaha investor believes in the future of natural gas.

That’s despite growing calls from environmentalists that the world should be moving away from it as it is just another fossil fuel and not a “bridge fuel” as natural gas producers and traders pitch it.

Buffett’s natural gas assets acquisition is “a bet that the future doesn’t come as fast as some people think,” Jim Shanahan, an analyst who covers Berkshire Hathaway at Edward Jones, told Bloomberg.

Warren Buffet’s fortune is the world’s third-biggest with links to significant levels of greenhouse gas emissions, after the Koch family in the U.S. and the House of Saud, the rulers of Saudi Arabia, according to Bloomberg Green estimates.

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Sierra Club’s Beyond Coal campaign, for its part, pointed out to Bloomberg that Berkshire Hathaway had made some bad calls on fossil fuel investments in the past.

Sierra Club, together with Earthjustice, published a report this month, saying that buildings account for nearly 40 percent of climate pollution in the United States, with much of that driven by the burning of gas for heating and hot water. The report refutes the idea that fossil gas alternatives are a viable alternative to building electrification.

Amid the increased environmental awareness toward natural gas, Warren Buffet looks at cheap assets with potential for good returns, and his first investment since the COVID-19 crisis suggests that he believes that natural gas will continue to be a dominant energy source in the United States.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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Will Buffett’s $10 Billion Bet On Natural Gas Go Bust? | OilPrice.com (2024)

FAQs

What is the future outlook for natural gas? ›

EIA Maintains 2024 Natural Gas Price Forecast, Sees Modest Production Decline Leading to 2025 Record. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is projecting a Henry Hub natural gas spot price average at $2.20/MMBtu for 2024, unchanged from the average price the agency modeled a month earlier.

What is the outlook for natural gas prices in 2024? ›

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is cutting its projected average Henry Hub natural gas spot price to $2.20/MMBtu for 2024, down 5.2% from the $2.30 average price the agency modeled a month earlier.

Why are natural gas futures going down? ›

In fact, the market hasn't been kind to natural gas, with the commodity trading considerably lower over the past 12 months due to growing worries about record output and concerns about an ongoing supply glut.

Who controls natural gas prices? ›

Natural gas prices are affected by market supply and demand

Increases in natural gas supply generally result in lower natural gas prices, and decreases in supply tend to lead to higher prices. Increases in demand generally lead to higher prices, and decreases in demand tend to lead to lower prices.

Will natural gas become obsolete? ›

California is on track to become the first state to phase out the use of natural gas-powered space and water heaters.

Is natural gas a long term investment? ›

Are natural gas stocks a good long-term investment? According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global demand for natural gas will continue to increase until a peak in 2030 and decline only slightly over the two decades after that.

Why is natural gas crashing? ›

Natural gas market in oversupply

The natural gas market has hit an oversupply, with US natural gas production reaching an unprecedented 125 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2023.

Why is natural gas price collapsing? ›

Natural gas prices (NG=F) are down nearly 40% year to date amid a glut in supply and a milder-than-expected winter. But analysts see an upside for the commodity going into the end of the year — in part due to growing electricity demand from artificial intelligence.

What is the natural gas forecast for 2025? ›

In the summer of 2025, we forecast natural gas consumed for electricity generation will again average about 41 Bcf/d, as trends toward growing electricity demand, less coal-fired generation, and more renewables generation continue.

Who owns most of the natural gas? ›

Based on data from EIA, at the start of 2021, proven gas reserves were dominated by three countries: Iran, Russia, and Qatar. There is some disagreement on which country has the largest proven gas reserves.

Does the president have control over natural gas prices? ›

Turns out that U.S. presidents have very little control over the price per gallon consumers pay at the pump. (Editor's note: This blog was originally published on February 3, 2021, and is regularly updated to reflect changes in the retail fueling market, including record gasoline prices.)

What states produce most of our natural gas? ›

The top five states that produce the most natural gas are Texas, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and New Mexico. The top five states that consume the most natural gas are Texas, California, Louisiana, Florida, and Illinois.

How many years can we expect natural gas to last? ›

Assuming the same annual rate of U.S. dry natural gas production in 2021 of about 34.52 Tcf, the United States has enough dry natural gas to last about 86 years.

What is the demand for natural gas in 2030? ›

Global gas demand growth between 2021 and 2030 is projected at some 400 bcm, equating to around 10 per cent in total or 1 per cent per annum.

What is a natural gas future? ›

Natural gas futures are standardized exchange-traded contracts that represent 10,000 MMBtu (million British thermal units) or 1,000 MMBtu of gold (Micro contract).

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