Stock market watch: What to expect from the week ending September 10, 2021 (2024)

FAQs

What return should I expect from the stock market? ›

The average stock market return is about 10% per year, as measured by the S&P 500 index, but that 10% average rate is reduced by inflation. Investors can expect to lose purchasing power of 2% to 3% every year due to inflation.

Timing the stock market is difficult, but understanding when to trade stocks can help your portfolio. The best time of day to buy stocks is usually in the morning, shortly after the market opens. Mondays and Fridays tend to be good days to trade stocks, while the middle of the week is less volatile.

YTD return is the amount of profit (or loss) realized by an investment since the first trading day of the current calendar year. YTD calculations are commonly used by investors and analysts to assess the performance of a portfolio or to compare the recent performance of a number of stocks.

A stock portfolio focused on dividends can generate $1,000 per month or more in perpetual passive income, Mircea Iosif wrote on Medium. “For example, at a 4% dividend yield, you would need a portfolio worth $300,000.

The expected market return is usually calculated as the weighted average of the returns on each asset in the portfolio. So, for example, if an investor wanted to look at the expected market return of the S&P 500, they would use the weighted return of the 500 stocks in the index.

Traders that follow the 10 a.m. rule think a stock's price trajectory is relatively set for the day by the end of that half-hour. For example, if a stock closed at $40 the previous day, opened at $42 the next, and reached $43 by 10 a.m., this would indicate that the stock is likely to remain above $42 by market close.

It is not a hard and fast rule, but rather a guideline that has been observed by many traders over the years. The logic behind this rule is that if the market has not reversed by 11 am EST, it is less likely to experience a significant trend reversal during the remainder of the trading day.

The month of September has been, on average, the worst month for the stock market going back more than a century.

What is the average return on the stock market last 3 years? ›

S&P 500 3 Year Return (I:SP5003YR)

S&P 500 3 Year Return is at 20.44%, compared to 32.26% last month and 43.16% last year. This is lower than the long term average of 23.24%. The S&P 500 3 Year Return is the investment return received for a 3 year period, excluding dividends, when holding the S&P 500 index.

Year to Date (YTD) refers to the period from the beginning of the current year to a specified date before the year's end.

If you'd invested in an S&P 500-tracking fund in in March 2020 -- immediately before the market crashed as a result of COVID-19 fears -- you'd still have earned total returns of nearly 74% by today. In other words, as long as you stay in the market for the long haul, there's never necessarily a bad time to invest.

Check Market Conditions

Since most stocks move in the same direction as the overall market, make new buys only during an uptrend(See Stock Market Direction). That's when your trades stand the best chance of success. Don't dive into stocks without first checking the market conditions.

Expectations for return from the stock market

Most investors would view an average annual rate of return of 10% or more as a good ROI for long-term investments in the stock market. However, keep in mind that this is an average. Some years will deliver lower returns -- perhaps even negative returns.

U.S. stock returns: 2023 optimism carries forward

This heightened optimism is on par with the positive outlook in December 2021, when investors anticipated a 6% stock market return for 2022. Investor expectations for stock returns over the long run (defined as the next 10 years) rose slightly to 7.2%.

Stock Market Average Yearly Return for the Last 10 Years

The historical average yearly return of the S&P 500 is 12.68% over the last 10 years, as of the end of February 2024. This assumes dividends are reinvested. Adjusted for inflation, the 10-year average stock market return (including dividends) is 9.56%.

A 20% return is possible, but it's a pretty significant return, so you either need to take risks on volatile investments or spend more time invested in safer investments.