Bitcoin’s Price Was Artificially Inflated, Fueling Skyrocketing Value, Researchers Say (Published 2018) (2024)

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Baffled by Bitcoin? How Cryptocurrency Works

From Bitcoin to Litecoin to Ethereum, we explain how cryptocurrency transactions work.

There’s Bitcoin. There’s Litecoin. There’s Ethereum. So just what is cryptocurrency, and how does it work? Essentially, it’s digital money that’s bought and sold online. There’s no bills or coins. It’s not based on another asset like gold. And it doesn’t go through traditional financial institutions like banks. Instead, these currencies operate in a completely decentralized system that uses so-called blockchain technology to track transactions. To see how this works, let’s look at how you’d buy something with cryptocurrency. Say that Alice wants to buy a bike from Dan using Bitcoin, her cryptocurrency of choice. Alice begins by logging into her Bitcoin wallet with a private key, a unique combination of letters and numbers. With a traditional financial transaction, the exchanges get sent to banks on each side who record the money being subtracted from one account and added to another. But remember, in this scenario, there are no banks or middlemen. Instead, Alice’s transaction is shared with everyone in the Bitcoin network. These networked computers add Alice’s transaction to a shared list of recent transactions, known as a block. Every 10 minutes, the newest block of transactions is added on, or chained, to all the previous blocks. That’s how you get a blockchain. To ensure that each block of transactions on the chain is verified, a subset of Bitcoin’s network joins a race to solve a difficult math puzzle. And if they solve it first, their record of the block of transactions becomes the official record. They’re rewarded with Bitcoins of their own, and the network gets a new block on the chain. This entire process is known as mining. But instead of chipping away at rock, you’re solving complex puzzles. The fact that many computers are competing to verify a block ensures that no single computer can monopolize the Bitcoin market. To ensure the competition stays fair and evenly timed, the puzzle becomes harder when more computers join in. The Bitcoin protocol says mining will continue until there are 21 million Bitcoins in existence. That’s set to happen around 2140 — if Bitcoin lasts that long.

Bitcoin’s Price Was Artificially Inflated, Fueling Skyrocketing Value, Researchers Say (Published 2018) (1)

By Nathaniel Popper

SAN FRANCISCO — A concentrated campaign of price manipulation may have accounted for at least half of the increase in the price of Bitcoin and other big cryptocurrencies last year, according to a paper released on Wednesday by an academic with a history of spotting fraud in financial markets.

The paper by John Griffin, a finance professor at the University of Texas, and Amin Shams, a graduate student, is likely to stoke a debate about how much of Bitcoin’s skyrocketing gain last year was caused by the covert actions of a few big players, rather than real demand from investors.

Many industry players expressed concern at the time that the prices were being pushed up at least partly by activity at Bitfinex, one of the largest and least regulated exchanges in the industry. The exchange, which is registered in the Caribbean with offices in Asia, was subpoenaed by American regulators shortly after articles about the concerns appeared in The New York Times and other publications.

Mr. Griffin looked at the flow of digital tokens going in and out of Bitfinex and identified several distinct patterns that suggest that someone or some people at the exchange successfully worked to push up prices when they sagged at other exchanges. To do that, the person or people used a secondary virtual currency, known as Tether, which was created and sold by the owners of Bitfinex, to buy up those other cryptocurrencies.

“There were obviously tremendous price increases last year, and this paper indicates that manipulation played a large part in those price increases,” Mr. Griffin said.

[Steve Bannon has a “good stake” in Bitcoin and floated the idea of creating a “deplorables coin.”]

Bitfinex executives have denied in the past that the exchange was involved in any manipulation. The company said on Wednesday that it had never engaged in “any sort” of market or price manipulation. “Tether issuances cannot be used to prop up the price of Bitcoin or any other coin/token on Bitfinex,” Jan Ludovicus van der Velde, Bitfinex’s chief executive, said in a statement.

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Bitcoin’s Price Was Artificially Inflated, Fueling Skyrocketing Value, Researchers Say (Published 2018) (2024)

FAQs

Why did Bitcoin suddenly skyrocket? ›

Cryptocurrency watchers say bitcoin is soaring in part because demand is rising on so-called spot bitcoin exchange traded funds. The ETFs, which allow investors to dabble in crypto in a less riskier way than ever before, has attracted a huge influx of cash this year, experts said.

Why did bitcoin become so expensive? ›

Scarcity: As the supply of unrewarded coins diminishes, demand increases. There will only ever be 21 million bitcoins in existence. Divisibility: Bitcoin is much more divisible than fiat currencies. One bitcoin can be divided into up to eight decimal places, with constituent units called satoshis.

What has caused Bitcoin to rise so quickly is price? ›

Bitcoin's price changes because of its supply, the market's demand, media and news, and regulatory changes. Some research suggests that the cost of producing a bitcoin also influences its prices, but most reports used assumed data rather than facts.

Is the price of Bitcoin skyrocketing? ›

Despite facing significant downturns in 2022 and 2023, Bitcoin experienced a resurgence in 2024. Following substantial jumps on March 8 and March 14, Bitcoin surged to all-new highs. This surge reflects renewed confidence and interest in the cryptocurrency market, attracting attention from investors worldwide.

What was the price of bitcoin in 2018? ›

It spent much of the year bouncing between $6,000 and $8,000 before closing 2018 at $3,709 – down 73 percent for the year. The year 2019 kicked off with more of the same, as Bitcoin looked for direction. It tried to burst through $4,000 for the first few months, but finally hit it in April and then rose to $5,000.

How much will 1 bitcoin be worth in 2030? ›

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2030
YearPrice
2025$ 72,362.16
2026$ 75,980.27
2027$ 79,779.28
2030$ 92,354.49
1 more row

What is bitcoin backed by? ›

Backing a currency is done by the currency's issuer to ensure its value. Bitcoin, gold, and fiat currencies are not backed by any other asset. Bitcoin has value despite no backing because it has properties of sound money.

Who is behind Bitcoin? ›

Satoshi Nakamoto – the creator of Bitcoin and the author of the original Bitcoin whitepaper and code.

Who owns the most bitcoin? ›

According to the Bitcoin research and analysis firm River Intelligence, Satoshi Nakamoto, the anonymous creator behind Bitcoin, is listed as the top BTC holder as of 2024. The company notes that Satoshi Nakamoto holds about 1.1m BTC tokens in about 22,000 different addresses.

What happens when all bitcoins are mined? ›

After all 21 million bitcoin are mined, which is estimated to occur around the year 2140, the network will no longer produce new bitcoin. The block subsidy will go to zero but miners will continue to receive transaction fees, which will make up an ever greater portion of the block reward.

Why is crypto crashing and will it recover? ›

The crypto crash can be attributed to a complex interplay of factors, including regulatory crackdowns, market volatility, and environmental concerns. Regulatory uncertainty undermines investor confidence, while market manipulation and speculation exacerbate price swings.

Should I invest in Bitcoin right now? ›

Bitcoin is more stable than it's been in years, and the next halving is fast approaching. Taking current market conditions into account, now might well be the perfect time to invest, so long as you remain cognizant of the risks.

Can bitcoin prices go down? ›

The price of Bitcoin is down 10% from its record high, and many analysts say BTC could drop lower as part of its routine consolidation phases.

Why did bitcoin price skyrocket? ›

The pandemic shutdown and subsequent government policies fed investors' fears about the global economy and accelerated Bitcoin's rise. At the close on Nov. 23, Bitcoin was trading for $18,383. Bitcoin's price closed at $28,993 on Dec. 31, 2020, increasing 416% from the start of that year.

Is bitcoin expected to skyrocket? ›

Our real-time BTC to USD price update shows the current Bitcoin price as $68,183 USD. Our most recent Bitcoin price forecast indicates that its value will increase by 11.6% and reach $76,091 by June 04, 2024.

How much will $50 of bitcoin be worth in 5 years? ›

After five years, the $50 investment might be worth around $67.20. If the price of Bitcoin were to climb at a rate of 25% each year, the initial investment of $50 might be worth around $129.70.

What will BTC be worth in 2024? ›

BTC Price Prediction 2024-2030
YearMinimum Price / Maximum Price
2024$82,000 to $85,000
2024$98,000 to $105,000

How much was 1 bitcoin in 2009? ›

What Price Did Bitcoin Start At? Bitcoin was originally worth next to nothing. The transaction that first gave Bitcoin monetary value was in October 2009, when Finnish computer science student Martti Malmi, known online as Sirius, sold 5,050 coins for $5.02, giving each Bitcoin a value of $0.0009 each.

Which coin will reach $1 in 2024? ›

Which coin will reach US$1 in 2024? Dogecoin (DOGE) is the most likely cryptocurrency to reach $1 in 2024.

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