2024 Banking Regulatory Outlook (2024)

After a tumultuous 2023, US banking regulators have set forth an ambitious agenda for 2024, including significant proposed changes to capital, resolution planning, consumer compliance, and supervision, among many others. For banks, these supervisory and regulatory changes will further necessitate building and maintaining effective governance, risk management, and control frameworks. At the same time, institutions should closely evaluate how new banking regulation will impact their business model and strategic planning. Explore our 2024 banking regulatory outlook to see what you should expect and ways to prepare for anticipated regulatory change.

Responding to increased regulatory scrutiny

Federal banking regulators have signaled that supervisory scrutiny of financial institutions is expected to increase materially in 2024, with particular heightened attention on untimely remediation of supervisory findings. While larger banks are traditionally the targets of regulatory attention, scrutiny is expanding across the banking industry. Midsize regional banks should prepare for new regulation—including liquidity, debt, and capital requirements—as well as increased governance and risk management expectations. Furthermore, nonbanks—including fintech, payment companies, and big tech firms that are increasingly offering financial products and services—should prepare for an expanded regulatory perimeter. As supervisory scrutiny intensifies throughout the banking sector, institutions will likely need to devote more resources toward addressing legacy issues and building out their governance and risk management frameworks.

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Safety and soundness at the forefront

A number of significant proposals designed to improve the safety and soundness of the banking sector are expected to be finalized in 2024. Among the most significant include the finalization of Basel III international standards, commonly called the “Endgame,” as well as new long-term debt requirements for large banking organizations. These regulatory changes will be among the most consequential for the industry in more than a decade, with many smaller banks expected to come under regulatory standards traditionally reserved for the largest, most systematically important institutions. Banks will need to devote significant effort to achieve compliance with these new regulations and understand the impact of these changes to their business model and ability to compete with non-regulated and foreign entities.

Intersection of innovation and consumer protection

Regulators are expected to emphasize consumer protection in 2024. In particular, regulators are likely to scrutinize the potential adverse effects that innovative products, services, and technologies deployed by banks may have on consumers. Aspects such as banks’ third-party risk management programs, fintech partnerships, and the deployment of emerging technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) and distributed ledger technology (DLT) are likely to come under increased regulatory scrutiny. Federal banking regulators are expected to finalize and modernize several consumer-related regulations in 2024, including fair lending practices and open banking. In response to these regulatory changes, banks of all sizes will need to conduct a thorough evaluation of their technological usage and partnerships and guard against consumer harm.

Get ahead of regulatory change

Proactive measures will be crucial to understanding the impact of banking regulatory changes in 2024. As regulatory priorities are defined and react to current external factors, banking leaders should analyze the impact of emerging trends, as well as proposed and final regulations on legal entity, business, and operational structures. The pace of potential change will stretch to board and senior management’s attention and prompt regulatory change processes to be strategic, not just process-driven. Strategic regulatory management is key.

Thefinancial services industry has much to prepare for in 2024. Discover howfinancial services organizations can integrate regulatory considerations intotheir strategy, keep pace with regulatory changes and enforcement priorities,and anticipate the regulatory impact on their current or future operatingmodel.

2024 Financial Services Regulatory Outlooks
If you are interested in learning more about the banking industry, check out our recently released 2024 banking and capital markets industry outlook here.

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2024 Banking Regulatory Outlook (2024)

FAQs

What is the banking outlook for 2024? ›

In 2024, banking leaders are tasked with growing deposits and increasing customer satisfaction, but how can they achieve this while balancing technology advancements and ensuring they retain top talent? End-to-end customer engagement is the cornerstone of this strategy, with 98% of...

What is the regulatory outlook for 2024? ›

Regulators are expected to continue ramping up supervisory activities through 2024 around liquidity, third-party risk, anti-money laundering (AML), cybersecurity, and operational resilience.

What are the greatest challenges the financial sector will face in the next 5 years? ›

The Top 5 Challenges Facing Financial Services Companies
  • Data Breaches.
  • Keeping up with Regulations and Governance.
  • Exceeding Consumer Expectations.
  • Surpassing the Competition.
  • Incorporating AI into Your Firm.

What's the biggest challenge in banking at the moment? ›

Here are some of the most highlighted banking industry challenges faced by the finance sector:
  • Increasing competition. ...
  • Fraud. ...
  • A cultural shift. ...
  • Regulatory compliance. ...
  • Changing business models. ...
  • Rising expectations. ...
  • Customer retention. ...
  • Outdated mobile experiences.

What are the risks of banks in 2024? ›

That trend is clearly continuing into 2024, with risks such as cybersecurity amplified by the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence and in particular generative AI technologies. The greatest worry expressed by bankers and experts, however, appears to be onslaught of regulatory changes.

What are the financial predictions for 2024? ›

Economic growth is projected to slow in 2024 amid increased unemployment and lower inflation. CBO expects the Federal Reserve to respond by reducing interest rates, starting in the middle of the year. In CBO's projections, economic growth rebounds in 2025 and then moderates in later years.

What is the consumer forecast for 2024? ›

NRF described consumers as resilient. National Retail Federation today forecast that retail sales will increase in 2024 between 2.5% and 3.5% to between $5.23 trillion and $5.28 trillion. And that massive figure doesn't even include cars, gas and restaurants.

What does regulatory mean? ›

adjective. of or relating to the control or direction of an activity by a set of rules, laws, etc.: The Coast Guard is to be commended for this current regulatory effort, as their proposed restriction addresses many concerns of the seafaring community.

What are some regulatory changes taking place in the financial markets? ›

These reforms aim at reducing global markets systemic risk by making them safer. Regulations involving restructuring banks, increasing tax transparency or strengthening capital requirements, are being drawn up and rolled out. These are complex and in many cases overlap products and regional jurisdictions.

What bank collapse in 2024? ›

The news: Last Friday, Pennsylvania financial regulators seized and shut down Philadelphia-based Republic First Bank in the first FDIC-insured bank failure of 2024.

What is the biggest threat facing the banking industry today? ›

5 of the biggest cyber threats facing banks in 2022-2023
  • Unencrypted information. In the event of a data breach, any data left unencrypted is immediately accessible to criminals. ...
  • Insecure third parties. ...
  • Insider vulnerabilities. ...
  • Spoofing and phishing. ...
  • Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS)
Jan 20, 2023

How many US banks are in danger? ›

Consulting firm Klaros Group analyzed about 4,000 U.S. banks and found 282 banks face the dual threat of commercial real estate loans and potential losses tied to higher interest rates. The majority of those banks are smaller lenders with less than $10 billion in assets.

What is the outlook for banks in 2024? ›

Key assumptions

While net interest income (NII) may decline in 2024, we expect banks to generate a return on common equity of 10%-11% and to build capital through earnings retention, particularly as they plan for more stringent capital regulation. Asset quality pressure will increase but remain manageable.

What are the upcoming regulatory changes in banking 2024? ›

Intersection of innovation and consumer protection. Regulators are expected to emphasize consumer protection in 2024. In particular, regulators are likely to scrutinize the potential adverse effects that innovative products, services, and technologies deployed by banks may have on consumers.

Which bank was too big to fail? ›

Companies Considered Too Big to Fail

Bank of America Corp. The Bank of New York Mellon Corp. Citigroup Inc. The Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Will the financial sector do well in 2024? ›

Positive fundamentals. The positive fundamentals for stock returns in 2024 include: Lower interest rates: Our model indicates there is little possibility of a recession in 2024, but there is a good chance of slowing economic activity. This slowing is expected to lead to rate cuts starting in the second half of 2024.

Will bank interest rates go up in 2024? ›

While the federal funds rate climbed steadily in 2022 and 2023, rates have flattened and are expected to fall at some point this year. The CME FedWatch Tool, which measures market expectations for federal funds rate changes, shows that most experts expect rates to sit between 4.50% and 5.25% by December 2024.

What is the interest prediction for 2024? ›

Mortgage rates are likely to trend down later in 2024. Depending on which forecast you look at for housing market predictions in 2024, 30-year mortgage rates could end up between 6.4% and 6.5% by the end of the year. Are interest rates going down in 2024?

What is the financial outlook for 2025? ›

By the end of 2025, inflation is expected to be back on central bank targets in most major economies. GDP growth in the United States is projected to be 2.6% in 2024, before slowing to 1.8% in 2025 as the economy adapts to high borrowing costs and moderating domestic demand.

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