The impact of inflation over the long term can be devastating to our finances as shown recently –Inflation has reduced Rs. One Lakh to just Rs. 5741 in 41 years! The only way to beat inflation or at least keep pace with it is to invest right. But what does “investing right” mean?
Many investors are obsessed with returns. They assume getting higher returns will ensure we can beat inflation and take on more risk. This is an ill-informed strategy as we have recently shown:Equity may beat inflation but that doesn’t mean you will!
To beat inflation three factors are essential (ranked in order of importance)
- Time. Trying to beat inflation over the short term is both risky and unnecessary. Inflation dominates only over the long term and therefore beating inflation is essential only for long term goals (more than 10Y).
- Money. We need to invest the right amount otherwise even if the return is much higher than inflation, the corpus will not beat inflation (see examples below).You can beat inflation by investing in FD/RD or endowment policies by simply investing enough. See here for an example: Can I Plan My Retirement With Recurring Deposits and Fixed Deposits?
- Returns. Yes, returns matter (but of tertiary importance) but not returns from equity. Returns from the overall portfolio after-tax. It is enough if this overall return is as close as possible to the expected or anticipated inflation. Outperforming this is tough. See:Fee-only advisor Avinash Luthria warns real investment returns will be zero!
Returns from equity are completely out of control. We can however reasonable limit the fluctuations in the overall portfolio return by using a systematic de-risking strategy. Also see:Do not expect returns from mutual fund SIPs! Do this instead!
Let us now consider some examples. These images are slides I use in DIY investor meets to provide some context to the “investment return”.
Join over 32,000 readers and get free money management solutions delivered to your inbox! Subscribe to get posts via email!
🔥 🔥
Consider some product or a service or a fee that costs 10L today. For an inflation rate as shown below (8%), the cost will increase with time as shown by the blue line. The green line represents the growth of the monthly investment amount at the average annual interest rate as shown above.
After 19 years the value of the investment will overtake the cost. Meaning we would have to wait 19 years to make the purchase. The real return (approximately) in this scenario is 12% -8% = 4% Now, what if the inflation was 10% instead of 8%?
When inflation increases to 10%, it would take 30 years to make the purchase for the same investment. The return is still above inflation, but the does not help much. The purchase is significantly delayed. Why? Now consider this,
More than double the investment, with less than half the return, a real return of about -2% produces the same result as a real return of +4%: purchase after 19 years. What if we invest like we would expect a real return of -2% in an instrument that would give us a positive real return?
What if we invest 10200 each month in an instrument that has the potential to deliver double-digit returns? Unfortunately, many do the opposite. They invest less than the required amount (10,200) in instruments that offer negative real returns.
Loss of capital: Loss does not always mean a negative balance or an actual decrease in value.
The result: permanent loss of capital (notice the gap between the curves at 19 years). I use the word permanent because these are the people who are scared of notional short-term losses. They may never be able to make the purchase.
Not investing enough is an ailment that can affect those who hope to earn a realreturn too!
A real return of +2% means nothing if one does not invest enough. There is yet another side to this story. Those who can only invest little (say 1500 pm) cannot take excessive risk in the hope of getting a higher real return. This scenario can be produced in an excel sheet but is unlikely in real life. At least it is quite uncommon.
When an expense crops up (planned or unplanned) the only thing that matters is the money available to us. At that point in time, the return we have got, and how much it is above or below existing inflation rates is irrelevant.
The goal behind investing is to obtain a big fat corpus. The goal is not to beat inflation. The goal is not to obtain a real return. The goal is to recognise the importance of inflation.
To summarize, we can beat inflation by
1) investing in aggressive assets – that is in assets with the potential to earn a positive real return (return higher than inflation) – provided there is enough time to do so and there are enough fixed-income assets in the portfolio to balance out the risk.
2) investing enough capital. This could even be in assets with a guaranteed post-tax return lower than inflation.
If we combine the two, we can change our social station in life for the better. For an example see:Why increasing investments each year is crucial for financial freedom.
Do share this article with your friends using the buttons below.
🔥Enjoy massive discounts on our courses, robo-advisory tool and exclusive investor circle! 🔥& join our community of 5000+ users!
Use our Robo-advisory Tool for a start-to-finish financial plan! ⇐ More than 1,000 investors and advisors use this!
New Tool!=> Track your mutual funds and stock investments with this Google Sheet!
Podcast: Let's Get RICH With PATTU! Every single Indian CAN grow their wealth!
You can watch podcast episodes on the OfSpin Media Friends YouTube Channel.
- Do you have a comment about the above article? Reach out to us on Twitter: @freefincal or @pattufreefincal
- Have a question? Subscribe to our newsletter with the form below.
- Hit 'reply' to any email from us! We do not offer personalized investment advice. We can write a detailed article without mentioning your name if you have a generic question.
Join over 32,000 readers and get free money management solutions delivered to your inbox! Subscribe to get posts via email!
Explore the site! Search among our 2000+ articles for information and insight!
About The Author
Dr. M. Pattabiraman(PhD) is the founder, managing editor and primary author of freefincal. He is an associate professor at the Indian Institute of Technology, Madras. He has over ten years of experience publishing news analysis, research and financial product development. Connect with him via Twitter, Linkedin, or YouTube. Pattabiraman has co-authored three print books: (1) You can be rich too with goal-based investing (CNBC TV18) for DIY investors. (2) Gamechanger for young earners. (3) Chinchu Gets a Superpower! for kids. He has also written seven other free e-books on various money management topics. He is a patron and co-founder of “Fee-only India,” an organisation promoting unbiased, commission-free investment advice.
Our flagship course! Learn to manage your portfolio like a pro to achieve your goals regardless of market conditions! ⇐ More than 3,000 investors and advisors are part of our exclusive community! Get clarity on how to plan for your goals and achieve the necessary corpus no matter what the market condition is!! Watch the first lecture for free! One-time payment! No recurring fees! Life-long access to videos! Reduce fear, uncertainty and doubt while investing! Learn how to plan for your goals before and after retirement with confidence.
Our new course! Increase your income by getting people to pay for your skills! ⇐ More than 700 salaried employees, entrepreneurs and financial advisors are part of our exclusive community! Learn how to get people to pay for your skills! Whether you are a professional or small business owner who wants more clients via online visibility or a salaried person wanting a side income or passive income, we will show you how to achieve this by showcasing your skills and building a community that trusts you and pays you! (watch 1st lecture for free). One-time payment! No recurring fees! Life-long access to videos!
Our new book for kids: “Chinchu gets a superpower!” is now available!
Most investor problems can be traced to a lack of informed decision-making. Wehave all made bad decisions and money mistakes when we started earning and spent years undoing these mistakes. Why should our children go through the same pain? What is this book about?As parents, what would it be if we had to groom one ability in our children that is key not only to money management and investing but to any aspect of life? My answer: Sound Decision Making. So in this book, we meet Chinchu, who is about to turn 10. What he wants for his birthday and how his parents plan for it and teach him several key ideas of decision-making and money management is the narrative. What readers say!
Must-read book even for adults! This is something that every parent should teach their kids right from their young age. The importance of money management and decision making based on their wants and needs. Very nicely written in simple terms. - Arun.
Buy the book: Chinchu gets a superpower for your child!
How to profit from content writing: Our new ebook is for those interested in getting side income via content writing. It is available at a 50% discount for Rs. 500 only!
Want to check if the market is overvalued or undervalued? Use our market valuation tool (it will work with any index!), or get the Tactical Buy/Sell timing tool!
We publish monthly mutual fund screeners and momentum, low-volatility stock screeners.
About freefincal & it's content policy. Freefincal is a News Media Organization dedicated to providing original analysis, reports, reviews and insights on mutual funds, stocks, investing, retirement and personal finance developments. We do so without conflict of interest and bias. Follow us on Google News. Freefincal serves more than three million readers a year (5 million page views) with articles based only on factual information and detailed analysis by its authors. All statements made will be verified with credible and knowledgeable sources before publication. Freefincal does not publish paid articles, promotions, PR, satire or opinions without data. All opinions will be inferences backed by verifiable, reproducible evidence/data. Contact information: letters {at} freefincal {dot} com (sponsored posts or paid collaborations will not be entertained)
Connect with us on social media
- Twitter @freefincal
- Subscribe to our YouTube Videos
- Posts feed via Feedburner.
Our publications
You Can Be Rich Too with Goal-Based Investing
Published by CNBC TV18, this book is meant to help you ask the right questions and seek the correct answers, and since it comes with nine online calculators, you can also create custom solutions for your lifestyle! Get it now.
Gamechanger: Forget Startups, Join Corporate & Still Live the Rich Life You Want 
This book is meant for young earners to get their basics right from day one! It will also help you travel to exotic places at a low cost! Get it or gift it to a young earner.
Your Ultimate Guide to Travel
This is an in-depth dive analysis into vacation planning, finding cheap flights, budget accommodation, what to do when travelling, and how travelling slowly is better financially and psychologically, with links to the web pages and hand-holding at every step. Get the pdf for Rs 300 (instant download)
