Bitcoin’s price has risen stratospherically, a fact that leaves many minor players in the market with massive gains and many bigger players millionaires. But is this a bubble? Are the gains real? And are the bitcoin whales in for a sad Christmas?
First we must understand what drives bitcoin price and, in particular, this boom. The common understanding for current growth leads us back to institutional investors preparing for the forthcoming BTC futures exchanges.
The primary theory about the astonishing rally being put forward by investors on social media is that bitcoin will soon benefit from big institutional money injections via the introduction of the first BTC futures products. CBOE Global Markets and CME Group are launching new futures contracts on December 10 and December 17, allowing investors to go long or short on bitcoin. This ability makes bitcoin far more palatable to big investors who are currently flooding the market to make profits if and when the bitcoin price falls.
This move also legitimizes bitcoin in Wall Street’s eyes, an important point considering cryptocurrencies are still suspect.
Further growth comes from the “bitcoin as a store of value” crowd. This group of enthusiasts bought and held bitcoin and will not sell it at any current price. More and more bitcoin fans are entering into this group and they are driving up demand increases. In a world where people expect bitcoin to be worth $1 million soon this sort of activity – whether rational or irrational – is quite popular.
We see a common thread between these points: hype and news. All cryptocurrency movements are based on domain specific media and conversations between traders. Bitcoin traders, it can be said, are now akin to the jolly colonists selling stocks under buttonwood tree. This small but influential market is prone to panics based on a single tweet and users work together to atleast bolster themselves with cries of “HODL!” The market is so nascent that there are no dark pools, no popular algorithmic trading systems, and no real way to automate your buying and selling activities (although, without futures, there was never a need to). That is all coming and at that point the market will harden itself against panics and booms. Until then we enjoy rises and dips and volatility that puts most bitcoin dilettantes off their lunch.
Ultimately new and old users are testing the limits of a system that, for a decade, has been untested. The futures market will be a big driver in growth and bust over the next few months as institutional investors begin using the currency. CoinDesk writer Omkar Godbole notes that the price should remain stable but “a pullback to $11,000 cannot be ruled out, but dips below the upward sloping 10-day MA of $11,500 are likely to be short-lived.”
“As of now, a significant correction is unlikely and could be seen only on confirmation of a bearish price-RSI divergence and/or if RSI and stochastic move lower from the overbought territory,” he wrote.
Is this dangerous? Yes, to those who are betting big on BTC. Again, I cannot tell you whether to buy or sell but the common expectation is that bitcoin raises to a set point and then fluctuates between a high and a low until the next run up. Many expect foul play.
“The current price isn’t truly driven by demand. When CME Group went live with Bitcoin futures we saw a sharp increase in demand and an increased number of users in the network,” said Matthew Unger, CEO and Founder of iComplyICO. “Now, some institutional major players are flooding the network with new cash and creating what appears to be market manipulation. Now that Bitcoin futures are available it is easy to buy into futures market first and then create a massive number of buys or sells of Bitcoin to ensure the price swings in favour of your futures contract.”
“In many jurisdictions, Bitcoin has yet to become subject to regulations, leaving an investor with no recourse or protection from fraud or market manipulation,” said Unger.
Is this a bubble? Many are disappointed in the moves, believing the rise is happening because of market manipulation. But we must remember that the real value of a cryptocurrency is not driven by price but instead is driven by utility. While bitcoin may always be the proverbial hidden pot of gold for early buyers the future of all cryptocurrencies is still being written. Just as, in 1994, no one could have predicted the prevalence and value of open source projects like Linux and Apache, no one can currently predict what bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will do for us in the future. Until we know, it’s best to buckle up and enjoy the ride.
FAQs
Bitcoin's price is primarily driven by supply, demand, fear, and greed. Some people argue that its price is correlated to its cost of production, its utility as a store of value, or its intrinsic value—but if these were true, it would not be as volatile and reactive as it is.
Why are Bitcoin's so highly valued? ›
Unlike traditional currencies that can be endlessly printed by central banks, Bitcoin operates on a fixed supply schedule. The total number of BTC ever to be in existence is capped at 21 million. This scarcity creates a sense of value and exclusivity, similar to precious metals like gold.
Why did Bitcoin increase so much today? ›
The recent gains in the crypto market, including today's performance, are part of typical consolidation trends observed immediately after Bitcoin's halvings. Investors and market watchers anticipate a potential increase post-2024 halving based on past patterns.
Can Bitcoin go to zero? ›
It is theoretically possible. Bitcoin has been around for close to 15 years now, and although it has survived several dramatic crashes before making new highs, its extreme volatile nature puts investors at risk of losing all their money.
How much will 1 bitcoin be worth in 2030? ›
However, some experts have offered bold projections. Cathie Wood, the founder, chief executive officer, and chief investment officer of ARK Invest, believes that Bitcoin could be worth $1 million per coin before 2030, as adoption by institutional investors increases.
What is bitcoin backed by? ›
Backing a currency is done by the currency's issuer to ensure its value. Bitcoin, gold, and fiat currencies are not backed by any other asset. Bitcoin has value despite no backing because it has properties of sound money.
Does bitcoin have a future? ›
Bitcoin's Price History
Notably, Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, predicted that bitcoin could reach an astounding $1.48 million by 2030. Obviously, the world's oldest cryptocurrency has come a long way since its first recorded price of less than a cent.
Who owns the most bitcoin? ›
Who owns the most Bitcoin in the world? The top Bitcoin holder is still believed to be Satoshi Nakamoto, the anonymous creator of Bitcoin, who reportedly holds around 1.1 million BTC across many wallets. Despite this large holding, the top 10 holders collectively only possess about 5.5% of the total Bitcoin supply.
How much bitcoin is left to mine? ›
Who sold everything to buy Bitcoin? ›
If someone truly believes in Bitcoin, it's Didi Taihuttu. Shortly after his father died, Taihuttu had an idea. First, he'd sell his 11-year old business along with everything he owned — from his house all the way down to his children's toys.
Sarathy concurs that there are risks involved with investing in these cryptocurrencies, including price volatility, cybersecurity concerns and a lack of regulations compared to traditional currency. Ultimately, it's up to each individual user how much risk they want to take.
Is it a good time to buy Bitcoin? ›
The most recent upswing comes alongside growing institutional demand for the cryptocurrency as an attractive asset class. Bitcoin's value has rallied over the last few quarters, increasing from about US$26,000 in mid-September 2023 to an all-time high of around US$73,000 in mid-March of this year.
How much will $100 Bitcoin be worth in 10 years? ›
A $100 investment in Bitcoin could purchase 0.00607 BTC today based on a price of $16,466.14 at the time of writing. If Bitcoin hits the $1 million price target by Wood in 2030, the $100 investment would turn into $6,070. This represents a gain of 5,970% from now until 2030.
Could Bitcoin crash in 2024? ›
Bitcoin, it found, is likely to hit an average peak price of $87,875 in 2024, with some experts predicting it will climb as high as $200,000. On the flip side, the average lowest price Bitcoin could hit by the end of 2024, is seen as $35,734, the report said, with some predicting it will fall as low as $20,000.
Is Bitcoin actually worth anything? ›
It has no intrinsic value and is not backed by anything. Bitcoin devotees will tell you that, like gold, its value comes from its scarcity—Bitcoin's computer algorithm mandates a fixed cap of 21 million digital coins (nearly 19 million have been created so far).
Is it worth buying Bitcoin? ›
Ultimately, investing in bitcoin is a personal decision, whether you're buying ETFs or actual digital coins. If you decide to invest, you should have an already diversified portfolio of assets like index funds. You typically don't want to invest money in speculative assets you can't afford to lose.
How high could Bitcoin go? ›
Bitcoin, it found, is likely to hit an average peak price of $87,875 in 2024, with some experts predicting it will climb as high as $200,000. On the flip side, the average lowest price Bitcoin could hit by the end of 2024, is seen as $35,734, the report said, with some predicting it will fall as low as $20,000.
Who owns the most Bitcoin? ›
Who owns the most Bitcoin in the world? The top Bitcoin holder is still believed to be Satoshi Nakamoto, the anonymous creator of Bitcoin, who reportedly holds around 1.1 million BTC across many wallets. Despite this large holding, the top 10 holders collectively only possess about 5.5% of the total Bitcoin supply.
What is the prediction for Bitcoin in 2025? ›
Bitcoin's price closed at $63,844 on that day. It's still hovering around that level as of this writing, but the historical data suggests it could easily climb above $100,000 by 2025.
