Weekly Forex Technical Outlook – 1st March (2024)

EURUSD (1.086): The single currency has posted a steady decline over the past few days breaking below the 1.11 support. Further declines could see the Euro fall to 1.081 – 1.075 level, where the next support is established. Below 1.075, EURUSD could be looking to test the previous lows established near 1.056 region. However, in the near term, following the break of the trend line, EURUSD could look for a bounce back to retest the broken trend line near 1.095 – 1.10 handle. Establishing resistance on the pullback could pave the way for further downside, to as low as 1.056 levels. The Stochastics on the daily chart is strongly in the oversold level, highlighting the risk of a short-term bounce in prices.

  • Bias (D1): Down
  • Support: 1.081 – 1.075
  • Resistance: 1.095 – 1.10
  • Technical Forecast: If the bounces are capped near 1.10, EURUSD could risk breaking the support at 1.081 – 1.075 for a move lower to 1.056. Alternatively, a break above 1.10 and establishing support could see a test to 1.11.

USDJPY (113.2): USDJPY remains consolidated above the 112.5 – 112 support with two tests below this level to 111.5 – 111.0 being strongly rejected. An eventual move to 117.0 remains in place but we expect to see a short-term dip to see prices close near the 111.5 – 111.0 support. In the near term, the downside risks for USDJPY looks to be easing, but the overall bias remains to the downside, with a rally to 117 indicating a pullback to the longer term downtrend. The Stochastics oscillator is has printed a higher low on the lower low in prices, indicating bullish divergence and validating the anticipated move to 117.0.

  • Bias (D1): Up
  • Support: 111.5 – 111.0
  • Resistance: 117.0 – 117.5
  • Technical Forecast: Downside looks limited near 111.0 – 111.5 as a longer-term pullback to 117 – 117.5 will mark a correction to the longer term downtrend.

GBPUSD (1.395): Following the strong declines off 1.4635 resistance, GBPUSD broke below the 1.4 2- 1.41 support level. Price action is currently pointing to a potential descending triangle pattern being formed with the current upside likely to stall near 1.41. Another minor leg lower with a potential higher low above the recent lows of 1.3836 could mark a possible breakout higher. GBPUSD remained biased to the downside and the view will change only on a break above 1.42 resistance. In such a case, GBPUSD could potentially target the older resistance near 1.4631.

  • Bias (D1): Correction
  • Support: 1.3836 – 1.385
  • Resistance: 1.42 – 1.41
  • Technical Forecast: Expect GBPUSD to consolidate into a descending triangle which could point to a breakout to the upside to 1.41 – 1.42. Only a close above 1.42 will indicate a move to 1.4635

USDCAD (1.351): USDCAD remains in the steady downtrend but is nearing support at 1.346 – 1.3387. The support level is likely to hold on the initial contact as this would mark the first test of support to a previously broken resistance level. The minor median line shows a possible move higher if the support holds. Minor resistance is at 1.3670 – 1.364 and USDCAD could stay flat within these levels. Above 1.367, a test to the previously broken support level near 1.414 could be tested for resistance, marking a pullback to the declines. Below 1.3387 support, 1.3136 comes in as the next support level. The Stochastics oscillator is currently oversold adding to the view that a test to the 1.346 – 1.3387 support could hold the declines.

  • Bias (D1): Down
  • Support: 1.346 – 1.3387
  • Resistance: 1.367 – 1.364
  • Technical Forecast: 1.346 – 1.3387 support could see USDCAD test the minor resistance. USDCAD could stay flat with the potential to break out from the support or resistance levels. 1.414 resistance to the upside and 1.3136 is the support to the downside on a breakout

USDCHF (0.99): USDCHF is nearing the identified breakout level from the earlier median line near 1.0045. Prices are trading near the outer median line plotted and a reversal here could see a dip to 0.9928 – 0.9848 support. If this key support breaks, USDCHF could be looking at steeper declines for a test to 0.954. Alternately, a breakout from the outer median line could see a test of resistance near 0.9928 and potentially test the upper resistance near 1.015. The Stochastics oscillator is in the overbought level currently, indicating USDCHF could potentially decline to test the support at 0.9928.

  • Bias (D1): Flat
  • Support: 0.9928 – 0.9848
  • Resistance: 1.015 – 1.0045
  • Technical Forecast: USDCHF could remain range bound within the specified support and resistance levels. 0.9928 – 0.9848 support will be critical in holding further declines.
Weekly Forex Technical Outlook – 1st March (2024)

FAQs

Is March good for forex trading? ›

There are five good months for forex trading. For instance, January, February, March, April, and May. Whereas autumn months (September to December) offer the best days of the year for trading forex.

What is the best week of the month to trade forex? ›

In short, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday are widely considered to be the three best days of the week to trade. Forex trading is best at the busiest times. This often means the best return on your investment, as well as the most profitable trades.

What is the outlook of the forex market? ›

Global forex trading platform market was valued at US$ 11.3 billion in 2023 and is projected to surpass valuation of US$ 24.2 billion by 2032 at a CAGR of 8.86% during the forecast period 2024–2032.

What is the hardest month to trade forex? ›

The forex calendar is divided into three periods of volatility. Out of these three periods, only two offer the best trading conditions. In June, July and August, volatility slows down due to the summer season, making it the worst time to trade forex.

What days are forex most volatile? ›

All in all, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday are the best days for Forex trading due to higher volatility. During the middle of the week, the currency market sees the most trading action. As for the rest of the week, Mondays are static, and Fridays can be unpredictable.

What is the 10 am rule in stock trading? ›

Traders that follow the 10 a.m. rule think a stock's price trajectory is relatively set for the day by the end of that half-hour. For example, if a stock closed at $40 the previous day, opened at $42 the next, and reached $43 by 10 a.m., this would indicate that the stock is likely to remain above $42 by market close.

Is Friday the worst day to trade forex? ›

The final reason is that the risk of rapid moves in one direction reduces due to the many active traders from Tuesday to Thursday. However, on Monday and Friday, forex prices can move very quickly in one direction, making it more challenging to manage your risk.

What time frame do most forex traders use? ›

As a general rule, traders use a ratio of 1:4 or 1:6 when performing multiple timeframe analysis, where a four- or six-hour chart is used as the longer timeframe, and a one-hour chart is used as the lower timeframe.

What is the most profitable time to trade forex? ›

The London - New York Overlap (2:30 pm - 4:30 pm GMT) The European - US overlap is often considered to be one of the best times for trading forex. Trading in all the European currencies is heaviest during this period and offers the most liquidity for currency pairs involving the euro, pound sterling and Swiss franc.

Do most people lose money trading forex? ›

Using official data from 30 ESMA regulated brokers, my research shows that an average of 74.9% of Forex traders lose money. Most new traders lose because they trade way too big. Their first loss or string of losses takes them out of the game.

Why am I losing so much money in forex trading? ›

The reason many forex traders fail is that they are undercapitalized in relation to the size of the trades they make. It is either greed or the prospect of controlling vast amounts of money with only a small amount of capital that coerces forex traders to take on such huge and fragile financial risk.

Is Forex the hardest market to trade? ›

Often perceived as an easy moneymaking career, forex trading is actually quite difficult, though highly engaging. The foreign exchange market is the largest and most liquid market in the world, but trading currencies is very different from trading stocks or commodities.

When should I stop trading forex? ›

There are two reasons to stop trading: an ineffective trading plan and an ineffective trader. An ineffective trading plan shows greater losses than anticipated in historical testing. That happens. Markets may have changed, or volatility may have lessened.

What is the hardest forex pair to trade? ›

The 10 most volatile forex pairs (USD)
  1. USD/ZAR - ​Volatility: 12.9% ...
  2. AUD/USD - Volatility: 9.6% ...
  3. NZD/USD - Volatility: 9.5% ...
  4. USD/MXN - Volatility: 9.2% ...
  5. GBP/USD - Volatility: 7.7% ...
  6. USD/JPY - Volatility: 7.6% ...
  7. USD/CHF - Volatility: 6.7% ...
  8. EUR/USD - Volatility: 6.6%

How often do forex traders lose money? ›

According to research, the consensus in the forex market is that around 70% to 80% of all beginner forex traders lose money, get disappointed, and quit. Generally, 80% of all-day traders tend to quit within the first two years.

Which month is best for trading? ›

S&P 500 best and worst months over the last 10 years (2014-2023)
  • Best Months: March, April, May, June, July, August, October, November, December.
  • Worst Months: January, September.
Apr 30, 2024

What are the seasons of forex trading? ›

There are generally four main trading sessions: the Sydney session, Tokyo session, London Session, and the New York session. Both the Sydney and Tokyo sessions are customarily referred to as Asian sessions. This is why Forex is usually referred to as the 3-session market: Asian, London, and New York.

What day of the week is best to exchange currency? ›

Saturday: The Day of Rest

Saturday, similar to Sunday, sees the financial markets at rest. Currency exchanges made on Saturdays will likely use Friday's rates, as it's extremely rare for rates to change over the weekend.

What time of day is best to buy forex? ›

Typically, the US forex market is most active just after the open of the New York session at 8am (EST). At this time, liquidity and volatility will likely be high as traders begin opening and closing their positions according to the market news for that morning.

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