Traders Expectations Ahead of Key U.S. CPI Data (2024)

As traders across the globe monitor market movements, the Forex arena remains particularly dynamic amid a plethora of economic data releases set to sway the valuations of major currency pairs. From the EUR/USD’s range-bound dance beneath the 1.0800 mark to the ongoing saga of GBP/USD and AUD/USD shedding pounds and pennies, it’s clear that the currency markets are anything but static.

Today’s trading session is brimming with anticipation, as eyes turn towards the forthcoming German ZEW Economic Sentiment figures, Britain’s Claimant Count Change and the all-important US Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers that promise to shake up the otherwise steady march of currency values.

EUR/USD Analysis: Capped by 1.0800 with CPI in Focus

Today’s European session sees the Euro under pressure, losing 20-30 pips against the US Dollar. The current intraday recommendation is to sell, with an entry price set at 1.0785. Traders are advised to target and take profit levels at 1.0750 and 1.0740 respectively. It’s worth noting that this trading strategy carries a risk of 2% per trade, making it a significant consideration in the spot market. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key technical indicator, also shows downside momentum, suggesting a potential bearish trend for the EUR/USD pair.

Traders Expectations Ahead of Key U.S. CPI Data (1)

GBP/USD: Modest Lift Faces Economic Data Test

Metro across the channel, the British Pound climbs cautiously against the Dollar, eyeing the 1.2650 in the European morning. The latest economic dispatch from the UK enumerates unemployment dipping to 3.8% in December, while wage inflation decelerates from 6.7% to 6.2%.

Despite this ostensibly positive news which normally might bolster the Pound, wage inflation remaining robust enough means the Bank of England might be loath to cut rates ahead of schedule.

Trade Recommendations for GBP/USD

In the current trading session, the British Pound is experiencing downward pressure against the US Dollar, dropping by 25-35 pips. The intraday recommendation for GBP/USD is a sell, with a pivot entry price set at 1.2640. The suggested target and profit-taking levels are 1.2595 and 1.2580 respectively. This approach carries a risk of 2% per trade, making it a notable factor in the spot market for today. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key technical indicator, is currently showing a lack of upward momentum, indicating a potential bearish trend for the GBP/USD pair.

GBPUSD Daily Chart

Traders Expectations Ahead of Key U.S. CPI Data (2)

AUD/USD: Diminishing on Aussie Reserve Cautions

The Australian Dollar retreats from its prior gains, regardless of improved consumer confidence statistics pointing to a surge from 81 to an impressive 86 in February. Challenges lie ahead as inflation moderation suggests the Reserve Bank of Australia may halt its monetary tightening, putting downward pressure on the AUD/USD.

Trade Recommendations for AUD/USD

The Australian Dollar is facing downward pressure against the US Dollar in today’s trading session, with a decrease of 20-35 pips. The intraday recommendation for AUD/USD is to sell, with an entry price at the pivot point of 0.6540. Traders are advised to set their target and take profit levels at 0.6500 and 0.6485, respectively. This trading strategy carries a risk level of 2% per trade, which is crucial to consider in the spot market. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently indicating downside momentum, suggesting a potential bearish trend for the AUD/USD pair.

AUDUSD Daily Chart

Traders Expectations Ahead of Key U.S. CPI Data (3)

USD/JPY: Steady Ascent In Anticipation Of Policy Shifts

Finally, the USD/JPY sees an uptrend, shadowing the 149.50 level. Lingering anxieties over rate hikes resurface in light of the Bank of Japan’s policy stance shift, though Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida’s comments imply a gradualist approach, potentially offering the Yen cover under its safe-haven mantle due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Trade Recommendations for USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is experiencing an upward trend, gaining between 20 to 40 pips. The intraday recommendation for USD/JPY is a buy, with an entry price at the pivot point of 149.20. Target and take profit levels are advised at 149.75 and 150.00 respectively. This trading strategy involves a risk of 2% per trade, an important factor to be considered in the spot market. According to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the outlook is mixed to bullish, indicating a potential uptrend for the USD/JPY pair.

USDJPY Daily Chart

Traders Expectations Ahead of Key U.S. CPI Data (4)

WTI Crude Oil: Surging Amid Geopolitical Strife

In energy news, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices press on towards $77.00 per barrel, fueled by the escalating tensions in the Middle East, garnering further attention amidst tumultuous commodity market shifts.

Traders Expectations Ahead of Key U.S. CPI Data (5)

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  • Traders Expectations Ahead of Key U.S. CPI Data (6)

    Zahari Rangelov

    Zahari Rangelov is an experienced professional Forex trader and trading mentor with knowledge in technical and fundamental analysis, medium-term trading strategies, risk management and diversification. He has been involved in the foreign exchange markets since 2005, when he opened his first live account in 2007.Currently, Zahari is the Head of Sales & Business Development at TraderFactor's London branch. He provides lectures during webinars and seminars for traders on topics such as;Psychology of market participants’ moods,Investments & speculation with different financial instruments andAutomated Expert Advisors & signal providers.Zahari’s success lies in his application of research-backed techniques and practices that have helped him become a successful forex trader, a mentor to many traders, and a respected authority figure within the trading community.

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Traders Expectations Ahead of Key U.S. CPI Data (2024)

FAQs

What are the expectations for CPI in April 2024? ›

Key takeaways. The April 2024 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report rose by a softer-than-expected 0.3% month-over-month (MoM) and 3.4% year-over-year (YOY). Inflation eased as smaller gains in services (e.g., food services) costs offset the continued strong rises in rent and gasoline prices.

What is the CPI in trading? ›

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a critical indicator of pricing pressures in an economy and provides a gauge of inflation. Forex traders monitor the CPI, as it can lead to changes in monetary policy by the central bank that will either strengthen or weaken the currency against rivals in the markets.

How does CPI affect the stock market? ›

Stock markets typically aren't moved as much by CPI data, but can be since higher interest rates can cause business activity to slow. In general stock markets prefer a lower CPI that allows consumers to keep spending, and business to continue investing. What is the CPI reading used for?

What was April CPI? ›

The April Consumer Price Index was in line with expectations, showing inflation increased 3.4 percent from a year ago, rising 0.3 month-over-month. Yahoo Finance takes a look at some of the key information from the report.

What are the expectations for the next CPI? ›

United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY
Release DateActualForecast
Mar 12, 2024 (Feb)3.2%3.1%
Feb 13, 2024 (Jan)3.1%2.9%
Jan 11, 2024 (Dec)3.4%3.2%
Dec 12, 2023 (Nov)3.1%3.1%
2 more rows

What is the forecast for CPI rates? ›

Our central forecast sees CPI inflation at 2.2 per cent in 2024, 1.4 percentage points below the November 2023 profile. External factors drive most of the downward revision, particularly lower energy prices, alongside the announced freeze in fuel duty.

Is high CPI bullish or bearish? ›

It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Is CPI a good indicator? ›

The "best" measure of inflation depends on the intended use of the data. The CPI is generally the best measure for adjusting payments to consumers when the intent is to allow consumers to purchase at today's prices, a market basket of goods and services equivalent to one that they could purchase in an earlier period.

What is CPI in Tradingview? ›

Introducing "US CPI" Indicator The "US CPI" indicator, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the United States, is a valuable tool for analyzing inflation trends in the U.S. economy.

Why does the CPI matter to investors? ›

How Is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Used? The CPI is widely used by financial market participants to gauge inflation and by the Federal Reserve to calibrate its monetary policy. Businesses and consumers also use the CPI to make informed economic decisions.

When inflation goes up, what happens to the stock market? ›

Analysts suggest that the short-term dynamic is less favourable, and that the relationship between equity prices and inflation is (quite frequently) an inverse correlation – ie as inflation rises, stock prices fall, or as inflation falls, stock prices rise.

Which stocks go up with inflation? ›

Rising inflation can be costly for consumers, stocks and the economy. Value stocks perform better in high inflation periods and growth stocks perform better when inflation is low. Stocks tend to be more volatile when inflation is elevated.

What is the CPI forecast for 2024? ›

On the basis of these inflation forecasts, average consumer price inflation should be 3.1% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025, compared to 4.06% in 2023 and 9.59% in 2022.

When was last CPI reported? ›

Updated May 15, 2024, to add the most recent CPI figures. Current index: The consumer price index, or CPI, rose 0.3% in April after rising 0.4% in March, according to the most recent report released May 15. The year-over-year increase was 3.4%.

How much did CPI increase this year? ›

Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 3.5 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 312.332 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.6 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

What is the CPI rate for 2024? ›

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.0 per cent in the March 2024 quarter and 3.6 per cent annually, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

What is the current inflation rate for 2024? ›

On the basis of these inflation forecasts, average consumer price inflation should be 3.1% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025, compared to 4.06% in 2023 and 9.59% in 2022.

What is the CPI rate year to date? ›

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.2% in the 12 months to March 2024, down from 3.4% to February and well below its recent peak of 11.1% in October 2022.

What is the current year to date CPI? ›

US Consumer Price Index is at a current level of 313.21, up from 312.23 last month and up from 303.03 one year ago. This is a change of 0.31% from last month and 3.36% from one year ago.

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