The S&P 500 Sector Quilt - A Wealth of Common Sense (2024)

Posted by Ben Carlson

“Rule number one: most things will prove to be cyclical. Rule number two: some of the greatest opportunities for gain and loss come when people forget rule number one.” – Howard Mark

Here’s a breakdown of the S&P 500 sector ETFs ranked from best to worst performance by year over the past decade along with the first four months of 2014 (click to enlarge):

Some observations on this data:

  • As with any asset allocation quilt, this data makes you realize how fleeting leadership can be in the financial markets. There seems to be little rhyme or reason from one year to the next.
  • There have been 7 different sectors with the best returns over the past 7 full calendar years.
  • For those that dislike the banks, here’s something to hang your hat on – the financials had by far the worst returns of any sector from 2004-2014 with a total return of -3% versus the S&P 500’s gain of 108%.
  • One of the best performers over this period was the consumer discretionary sector. One of the narratives following the financial crisis was that the consumer was tapped out from the debt overhang. From 2009-14, consumer discretionary stocks were up nearly 222% versus the S&P’s gain of roughly 130% (Although that trend has finally reversed this year).
  • Another story investors should have ignored? Remember when Obamacare was going to crush health care stocks under a cloud of uncertainty? This sector is up roughly 100% in the last three years and change despite the uncertainty surrounding the health care bill.
  • The performance of these two sectors shows how often following the story on the news can be detrimental to investment decisions. Expectations matter in the financial markets. It’s not just absolute growth or a single news item that moves stocks. It’s the relative growth in relation to expectations and how much of that good or bad news is already priced into the stocks that matters.
  • It’s interesting to note that the energy sector outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 7% per year with nearly the same standard deviation. That’s the kind of risk-adjusted (and absolute) performance hedge fund managers would kill for.
  • Many active managers have been complaining about increased correlations and low dispersion in stocks for the past few years as a reason for underperformance. The claim has been that it hasn’t been a “stock picker’s market.” Well, the range between the top and bottom performing sectors has been huge:

That’s an average difference of 35% between top and bottom performing sectors. Just pick the right sectors and you don’t really have to worry about stock picking (obviously easier said than done).

The takeaway here is that most active managers track too closely to benchmark sector weights, making it much harder for them to outperform the market. To outperform you must be willing to make investments that are far different than the make-up of the benchmark you are trying to beat.

This is no easy task as career risk and the possibility of years of underperformance can be difficult to stomach, for both portfolio managers and investors.

Now go talk about it.

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  1. Hot Links: No Nonsense | The Reformed Broker commented on May 05

    […] “This data makes you realize how fleeting leadership can be in the financial markets. There seems to be little rhyme or reason from one year to the next.” (WealthOfCommonSense) […]

  2. commented on Jul 15

    […] few months ago I wrote a post about the S&P 500 sector quilt which you can see here updated through June 30, 2014 (click to […]

  3. commented on Sep 09

    […] Further reading: The S&P 500 Sector Quilt […]

  4. Why Sector Rotation Causes So Many Problems For Portfolio Managers - A Wealth of Common SenseA Wealth of Common Sense commented on Dec 04

    […] Further Reading: The S&P 500 Sector Quilt […]

  5. Diversifiable Risk in Sector ETFs - A Wealth of Common SenseA Wealth of Common Sense commented on Dec 11

    […] average range of returns in the S&P 500 between the top and bottom performing sectors since 2004 is 35%. That’s a huge gap within a broad market index. That means higher rewards if you’re […]

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The S&P 500 Sector Quilt - A Wealth of Common Sense (2024)

FAQs

Is the S&P 500 a good investment? ›

Over time, the S&P 500 has been good to investors. As of April 22, 2024, it generated a one-year return of 21.2%, a five-year annualized return of 11.5% and a 10-year annualized return of 10.3%.

What are the 11 sectors in the S&P 500? ›

The eleven sectors of the S&P 500 are information technology, financials, health care, consumer discretionary, communication services, industrials, consumer staples, energy, real estate, materials, and utilities.

Should I put all my money in the S&P 500? ›

Investing in an S&P 500 fund can instantly diversify your portfolio and is generally considered less risky. S&P 500 index funds or ETFs will track the performance of the S&P 500, which means when the S&P 500 does well, your investment will, too. (The opposite is also true, of course.)

What is the average return of the S&P 500 in the last 10 years? ›

Stock Market Average Yearly Return for the Last 10 Years

The historical average yearly return of the S&P 500 is 12.58% over the last 10 years, as of the end of April 2024. This assumes dividends are reinvested. Adjusted for inflation, the 10-year average stock market return (including dividends) is 9.52%.

What if I invested $1000 in S&P 500 10 years ago? ›

Over the past decade, you would have done even better, as the S&P 500 posted an average annual return of a whopping 12.68%. Here's how much your account balance would be now if you were invested over the past 10 years: $1,000 would grow to $3,300. $5,000 would grow to $16,498.

How much was $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 in 2000? ›

$10,000 invested in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 2000 would have grown to $32,527 over 20 years — an average return of 6.07% per year.

What sector is best to invest in right now? ›

List of the Top Sectors in India that are Most Likely to Provide Excellent Returns
  • Healthcare and Insurance Sector. ...
  • Renewable Energy Sector. ...
  • IT Sector. ...
  • Real Estate Sector. ...
  • Fast-Moving Consumer-Goods Sector (FMCG) ...
  • Automobile Sector.
May 20, 2024

What is the best ETF for S&P 500? ›

Investing in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO 0.19%) is a smart way to guarantee your fair share of the stock market's return. The exchange-traded fund's (ETF's) low expense ratio, strong record of closely tracking the S&P 500 index, and simplicity make it appealing to new investors and seasoned veterans alike.

What is the best performing sector sp500? ›

The best performing Sector in the last 10 years is Information Technology, that granded a +20.31% annualized return. The worst is Energy, with a +3.81% annualized return in the last 10 years. The main S&P 500 Sectors can be easily replicated by ETFs.

How to double 10K quickly? ›

How To Double 10K Quickly
  1. Flip Stuff For Money. One of the more entreprenurial ways to flip 10k into 20k is to buy and resell stuff for profit. ...
  2. Invest In Real Estate. ...
  3. Start An Online Business. ...
  4. Start A Side Hustle. ...
  5. Invest In Stocks & ETFs. ...
  6. Fixed-Income Investing. ...
  7. Alternative Assets. ...
  8. Invest In Debt.
May 24, 2024

How should a beginner invest in the S&P 500? ›

You can't directly invest in the index itself, but you can buy individual stocks of S&P 500 companies, or buy a S&P 500 index fund through a mutual fund or ETF. The latter is ideal for beginner investors since they provide broad market exposure and diversification at a low cost.

Should I invest $10,000 in S&P 500? ›

Assuming an average annual return rate of about 10% (a typical historical average), a $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 could potentially grow to approximately $25,937 over 10 years.

How long does it take to double money at 7 percent? ›

What Is the Rule of 72?
Annual Rate of ReturnYears to Double
6%12
7%10.3
8%9
9%8
6 more rows
Feb 14, 2024

Does SP500 pay dividends? ›

The S&P 500 is an index, so it does not pay dividends; however, there are mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track the index, which you can invest in. If the companies in these funds pay dividends, you'll receive yours based on how many shares of the funds you hold.

What is a good return on investment over 5 years? ›

General ROI: A positive ROI is generally considered good, with a normal ROI of 5-7% often seen as a reasonable expectation. However, a strong general ROI is something greater than 10%. Return on Stocks: On average, a ROI of 7% after inflation is often considered good, based on the historical returns of the market.

How much will S&P be worth in 10 years? ›

Stock market forecast for the next decade
YearPrice
20276200
20286725
20297300
20308900
5 more rows

Will S&P 500 hit $10,000? ›

It's conceptually hard to imagine the S&P 500 smashing through 10,000, but it could still happen within the next five years or not too long after.

What is the 20 year return of the S&P 500? ›

Average returns
PeriodAverage annualised returnTotal return
Last year26.2%26.2%
Last 5 years16.4%114.0%
Last 10 years15.3%314.1%
Last 20 years10.8%684.6%

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