The J-Curve in Private Equity and How To Beat It (2024)

Private Equity (PE) is an asset class with various unique benefits. It can offer a safe haven during market volatility and give exposure to growth opportunities during recessions.

One important difference - compared with regular investments - is the trajectory of returns.

In a publicly-traded security, one can expect to achieve returns from the beginning (i.e. through price appreciation or dividends). In private equity, returns are often delayed for some years, a phenomenon known as the J-curve.

What is the J-curve?

When one invests money in a PE fund, the fund will start to conduct due diligence on the most promising opportunities (deal sourcing). It normally takes some years to acquire a portfolio of companies.

Furthermore, when a company is acquired, this is followed by a period of transformation (value creation).

The bulk of the returns will arrive when a company is sold, 5-8 years after the initial acquisition.

What does all this mean for one’s returns? The answer is contained in the diagram below.

The J-Curve in Private Equity and How To Beat It (1)

The “J” refers to the slope of returns, which decline initially and then trend gradually upward.

Initial returns are negative because investors are contributing capital and paying management fees. Meanwhile, the sale of the company is still years away.

This is why PE uses multi-year metrics (e.g., IRR, MOIC) to describe returns. instead of the more familiar annualized rates of return (e.g., Return on Equity).

How can we mitigate the J-curve?

Strategy 1: Building a portfolio of funds

If one invests in multiple funds, the returns from more mature funds may offset the negative returns from newer funds. An alternative could be to take over positions in mature funds from investors who wish to sell their stake via secondary markets.

The minimum investment requirements for investing in a fund are normally high. As a result, this strategy may not be feasible for most investors. Furthermore, the time needed to accumulate multiple positions may defeat the initial purpose.

Strategy 2: Co-investing

Co-investing is when you invest alongside (not through) a PE fund. Co-investing takes place for a specific investment. As a co-investor, you can scrutinize the deal, and maintain visibility and influence throughout the deal’s lifetime.

This change in the relationship helps to address the J-curve problem in various ways:

Faster returns: because 100% of an investor’s capital is used up-front, there is no lag time. BlackRock estimates that a modest allocation to co-investments can decrease the J-curve by 12-18 months.[1] Since the investor has control, it is also possible to focus on deals with a faster turnaround time.

Lower fees: Standard PE fees consist of a 2.0% management fee and a 20% share of the profits (“carried interest”). Co-investors enjoy lower fees, which mitigates negative returns and maximizes eventual profits.[2] Some funds will even waive fees entirely for co-investors.

Co-investing also allows investors to get a closer look at the processes of the PE funds they work with. The choice of acquisition also allows them to be precise in diversifying their broader portfolio.

What can be done

Co-investing is an effective strategy, but it carries heavier obligations.

The fees are lower for a good reason. By allowing one to co-invest, the PE fund is shifting some of the risk onto his shoulders.

To mitigate this risk, one must be prepared to do his share of due diligence. This requires time, expertise, and additional support (e.g., one’s own legal team). Certain obligations will also be ongoing (e.g., board meetings) as well as a need to interact with fellow investors on a regular basis.

At Petiole, we believe that top-tier strategies and opportunities should be open to all qualified investors. That’s why we don’t simply provide our clients with access to co-investing opportunities. We also support them through the process, using technology to remove friction and improve transparency.

Get in touch with one of our associates to find out what we can do for you.

[1] BlackRock

[2] BlackRock

Disclaimer:

The statements and data in this publication have been compiled by Petiole Asset Management AG to the best of its knowledge for informational and marketing purposes only. This publication constitutes neither a solicitation nor an offer or recommendation to buy or sell any investment instruments or to engage in any other transactions. It also does not constitute advice on legal, tax or other matters. The information contained in this publication should not be considered as a personal recommendation and does not consider the investment objectives or strategies or the financial situation or needs of any particular person. It is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions may lead to materially different results. All information and opinions contained in this publication have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and credible. Petiole Asset Management AG and its employees disclaim any liability for incorrect or incomplete information as well as losses or lost profits that may arise from the use of information and the consideration of opinions.

A performance or positive return on an investment is no guarantee for performances and a positive return in the future. Likewise, exchange rate fluctuations may have a negative impact on the performance, value or return of financial instruments. All information and opinions as well as stated forecasts, assessments and market prices are current only at the time of preparation of this publication and may change at any time without notice.

Duplication or reproduction of this publication, in whole or in part, is not permitted without the prior written consent of Petiole Asset Management AG is not permitted. Unless otherwise agreed in writing, any distribution and transmission of this publication material to third parties is prohibited. Petiole Asset Management AG accepts no liability for claims or actions by third parties arising from the use or distribution of this publication. The distribution of this publication may only take place within the framework of the legislation applicable to it. It is not intended for individuals abroad who are not permitted access to such publications due to the legal system of their country of domicile.

The J-Curve in Private Equity and How To Beat It (2024)

FAQs

How can we mitigate the J-curve? ›

Building a self-funding portfolio can help investors mitigate the J-Curve effect and smooth out their cash flow needs. Borrowing to meet capital calls when deemed more cost-effective than pulling from other investments.

What causes the J-curve in private equity? ›

J-curve in private equity

This can be dependent on different factors but it typically is down to management costs, investment costs and operational fees as well as a portfolio that hasn't yet matured. Once matured, however, the returns can rise well beyond their starting point — forming the J-curve.

How do secondaries mitigate the J-curve? ›

In other words, by shortening the length and/or lowering the depth of the outflows and hastening inflows, secondary funds can diminish the initial J-curve of a private markets portfolio and offer cash back more quickly to the private markets investor.

How long does the J-curve last? ›

J-Curve Effect: Private Equity Fund Life Cycle Stages

In the early stages of the fund's lifespan – which typically lasts approximately 5 to 8+ years – the graphical representation of the cash inflows / (outflows) from the perspective of the LPs is a steep, downward slope.

What are the 5 stages of the J-curve of change? ›

Understanding Change: The J Curve
  • Stage 1: Plateau. This is where your team is at the beginning. ...
  • Stage 2: The Cliff. Here we go: people take the plunge into change. ...
  • Stage 3: The Valley. Your team begins to understand the new procedures and processes. ...
  • Stage 4: The Ascent. ...
  • Stage Five: The Mountaintop.

What is the J-curve for dummies? ›

A J-curve depicts a trend that starts with a sharp drop and is followed by a dramatic rise. The trendline ends in an improvement from the starting point. In economics, the J-curve shows how a currency depreciation causes a severe worsening of a trade imbalance followed by a substantial improvement.

What is the J curve in secondaries? ›

Within private markets, the term “J-curve” refers to the typical pattern of returns for private equity investments –named because it resembles the letter “J.” This pattern shows initial negative returns followed by positive returns in later years, reflecting the process of investing capital and creating value.

What is an example of the J curve? ›

The perfect J Curve example was Japan in 2013. Japan provides a real-world example of how the J curve applies to economics. In 2013, Japan experienced a sudden depreciation in the value of the yen, which led to a deterioration in the country's trade balance.

What are the effects of the J curve? ›

The J-curve effect refers to the phenomenon in which a country's balance of trade initially worsens after it devalues its currency or otherwise reduces its trade barriers. This occurs because the lower exchange rate makes imports more expensive, while exports become cheaper and more competitive in the global market.

What are the benefits of secondaries in private equity? ›

Secondary funds reduce “blind pool” risk by investing in pre-identified, underlying assets. In contrast to primary funds, in which investors commit capital to a “to-be-assembled” portfolio, secondary funds invest in existing assets by purchasing mature underlying fund interests.

Why are secondaries attractive? ›

The secondary market provides sellers with an avenue for liquidity in an inherently illiquid asset class, and buyers have the opportunity to acquire quality, more mature assets at an attractive entry point.

What is the J shaped economic recovery? ›

L-shaped recovery: The growth after falling, stagnates at low levels and does not recover for a long, long time. J-shaped recovery: The growth rises sharply from the lows much higher than the trend-line and stays there.

What causes the J-curve? ›

The J Curve operates under the theory that the trading volumes of imports and exports first only experience microeconomic changes as prices adjust before quantities. Then, as time progresses, export volumes begin to dramatically increase, due to their more attractive prices to foreign buyers.

What is the difference between the S and J-curve? ›

Answer and Explanation:

A S-shaped population growth curve represents logistic growth, whereas a J-shaped curve represents exponential growth. In logistic growth, a population grows exponentially at first, but levels off as it reaches its carrying capacity.

What is the difference between S curve and J-curve? ›

In logistic growth, a population's per capita growth rate gets smaller and smaller as population size approaches a maximum imposed by limited resources in the environment, known as the carrying capacity ( ‍ ). Exponential growth produces a J-shaped curve, while logistic growth produces an S-shaped curve.

What causes the J-curve effect? ›

The J Curve is an economic theory that says the trade deficit will initially worsen after currency depreciation. The nominal trade deficit initially grows after a devaluation, as prices of exports rise before quantities can adjust.

What is responsible for the J shaped growth curve of the human population? ›

Answer and Explanation: A J-shaped population growth curve represents exponential growth. The population begins growing slowly, and the rate of growth becomes more rapid (and the curve becomes steeper) as the population size grows.

What causes J-curve population growth? ›

The j curve effect will be observed in an ideal environment with unlimited resources and zero competition among the organisms. Due to the absence of competition, there is no limit on the geometric growth rate. The lag phase of the j shape occurs due to a shortage of reproducing organisms.

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