Here is my stock market outlook for the week of March 25, 2024. As a swing trader, each week I do a stock market outlook to determine if I’ll be placing new trades during the week or not. The stock market outlook gives me a sense of market health, and thus how much or little of my capital I want to deploy.
It is a holiday on March 29 for Good Friday. Canadian and US stock markets are closed.
Heading into the week of March 25, market conditions are ok but we have a yellow flag that has been persisting for a while. I am deploying my capital on long trades but being a bit more cautious (not fully deployed, quicker to take profits).
I look at 4 different US indices because they each tell a different story about overall stock market health. The stock market is healthiest—and swing trading stocks on the long side is most profitable—when all these indexes are in uptrends. Here’s what each of the 4 indices represents:
The Canadian index tracks large-cap Canadian stocks.
From aprice action perspective, NYSE Composite, S&P 500, TSX Composite (Canada) are holding up pretty well. Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 are experiencing more choppyness. Still in uptrends though.
Bitcoin continues to act strongly, bouncing quickly from sell-offs in an overall uptrend. It reached a new all-time recently eclipsing $69k. Recoveries to all-time highs following a severe bear market (the 2024 scenario) often witness whipsaws for a month or more near the prior all-time high.
Gold has broken out of a long-term cup and handle going back to 2013. As well as completing a rounded bottom/inverse head and shoulders pattern over the last four years. This indicates a potential long-term uptrend in gold is underway. Gold miner stocks are still weak in comparison. Here’s a video looking at the current situation in Gold and GDX.
They tell me the condition of the stock market overall, and whether it’s a good time to swing trade individual stocks.
The Complete Method Stock Swing Trading Course covers my entire method of swing trading stocks.Now is a great time to review the material and prepare for the opportunities that are unfolding.
I don’t typically focus on Utility or Consumer Defensive stocks because they don’t move as much in good market conditions as the other sectors. In poor market conditions, these sectors hold up a bit better but are often still dropping.
Main sectors to watch: Energy, Basic Materials, Financials, Industrials, Technology, Communication Services
The article, How to Scan for the Strongest Stocks in the Strongest Sectors covers how to find high-momentum stocks by looking at sector performance in Finviz, StockRover, StockFetcher, or StockCharts. It also shows you how to determine when money is flowing into or out of a sector.
I am willing to deploy capital on long trades, but still a bit cautious. Things are still good, but not ideal.
I also day trade stocks and the EURUSD. What I like about day trading is that I can trade every day. Swing trading has periods of action and inaction.
Don’t want to have to analyze market conditions and pick individual stocks to trade? You can also passively invest. In my “long-term account,” I buy the same ETFs every month, regardless of market conditions. Buy and hold. Simple. It doesn’t make as much as swing trading or day trading, but it is much less work.
Disclaimer: Nothing in this article is personal investment advice, or advice to buy or sell anything. Trading is risky and can result in substantial losses, even more than deposited if using leverage.
| Week Of: | Indices: | Conditions | Watchlist/Trade Performance | What I’m Doing: | Top Sectors (Excluding Utilities & Consumer Defensive) |
| March 18, 2024 | Good, a bit choppier recently | Ok, still divergence on stocks above 50-day MA | Good | Deploying, cautiously | Energy, Basic Materials, Financials, Industrials |
| March 11 | Good | Good. Still have the divergence on stocks above 50-day MA | Good | Deploying capital | Basic Materials, Real Estate, Financial, Industrials, Technology. |
| March 4. | Good | Good | Good | Deploying Capital | Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Healthcare, and Financial. |
| Feb. 26, 2024 | Good | Good | Good | Deploying Capital | Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Healthcare, and Financial. |
| Feb. 20 | Good | Good | Good | Deploying Capital | Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Healthcare, and Financial. |
| Feb. 12 | Good | Good | Good | Deploying Capital | Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Healthcare, Financial |
| Feb. 5, 2024 | Good | Good (stocks above 50-day diverging with price, but not below 50%) | Good | Deploying Capital | Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare, Financial. |
| Jan. 29 | Good | Good | Good | Deploying capital | Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare, Financial, Real Estate |
| Jan. 22 | Good | Good | Good | Deploying capital | Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare, Financial, Real Estate |
| Jan. 16 | Good | Good | Good, but few setups | Deploying capital (if I can find anything) | Tech and Communication Services hot recently. Healthcare and Real Estate solid overall. |
| Jan. 8 2024 | Good | Good | Good – Few setups, but past signals working well | Deploying capital (if I can find anything) | Healthcare moving up. Financial, Basic Materials, Industrials, Real estate but all pulling back last week. |
| Jan. 2, 2024 | Good | Good | Good – Few setups, but past signals working well | Deploying capital (if I can find anything) | Main sectors to watch: Real Estate, Industrials, Basic Materials, Financial. Technology still pretty good overall, and Healthcare moving up. |
| Dec. 26, 2023 | Good | Good | Good -Few setups, but past signals working well | Deploying Capital (If I can find anything) | Technology, Financials, Industrials, Consumer Cyclical, Real Estate, and Basic Metals. |
| Dec. 18, 2023 | Good | Good | Good | Deploying Capital | Technology, Financials, Industrials, Consumer Cyclical, Real Estate, and Basic Metals. |
| Dec. 11, 2023 | Good | Good | Good | Deploying capital | Technology, Financials, and Industrials are the main ones. Consumer Cyclical, Real Estate and Basic Metals also good over last month. |
| Dec. 4, 2023 | Good | Good | Lots of setups, mostly working. Good | Deploying capital | Nearly everything is performing well over the last month since the rally began. Real estate really strong recently. Basic material rallying as gold is running. Industrials also a solid performer. Technology, Consumer Cyclicals, Financials remain strong overall |
| Nov 27 | Good | Good | Lots of setups, mostly working. Good | Deploying capital | Technology, Financial, Consumer Cyclical. |
| Nov. 20 | All in at least short-term uptrends | Good | Lots of setups, mostly working. Good | Deploying capital | Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Financial, Real Estate…pretty much everything but Energy and Healthcare |
| Nov. 13, 2023 | Nas and S&P turning, others popping but still in downtrends currently | All pretty good. MMFI right near 50 | Lots of setups | Deploying part of capital | Technology, Consumer Cyclical, and Financial |
| Nov. 6, 2023 | S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are nearing turning points | Improving, most health indicators positive (except (MMFI) | Lots of setups | Starting to Buy | Real Estate, Consumer Cyclical, Financial, Technology. |
| Oct. 30, 2023 | Declining/ Pullback | Poor | No watchlist | Awaiting better conditions | None |
| Oct 23 | Declining/ Pullback | Poor | No watchlist | Awaiting better conditions | Energy, and Communication Services holding up ok…but nothing is great! |
| Oct 16 2023 | Declining/ Pullback | Poor | No watchlist | Awaiting better conditions | Energy, and Communication Services |
| Oct 9 | Declining/ Pullback | Poor | No watchlist | Awaiting better conditions | Energy, Communication Services, Technology, and Healthcare |
| Oct 2, 2023 | Declining/ Pullback | Poor | No watchlist | Awaiting better conditions | Energy |
| Sept 25 | Declining/ Pullback | Poor | No watchlist | Awaiting better conditions | Energy and Financials |
| Sept 18 | Declining/ Pullback | Poor | Few holding up, most stocks dropping | Awaiting better conditions | Energy, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Financials, Basic Materials |
| Sept 11, 2023 | Trying to recover | Poor | Ok | Awaiting better conditions | Energy, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Financials, and Technology |
| Sept 5 | Pulling back | Poor (right on the cusp of turning good) | Nothing | Awaiting better conditions before buying | Energy, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, and Technology |
| Aug 29 | Pulling back | Poor | Nothing | Not buying | Energy, Consumer Cyclical, Technology, and Industrials |
| Aug 22, 2023 | Pulling back | Mixed/poor | Nothing | Not buying | Energy, Consumer Cyclical, Technology, and Industrials |
| Aug 14 | Uptrends (in pullback) | Good (approaching key levels though) | Good | Deploying Capital | Energy. Healthcare stronger recently. Consumer Cyclical, Technology, and Industrials took a hit recently, but strong over the longer term. |
| Aug 7 | Uptrends (in pullback) | Good | Good | Deploying Capital | Consumer Cyclicals/Discretionary, also Basic Materials, Financials, and Energy moving up. |
| July 31, 2023 | Uptrends | Good | Good | Deploying Capital | Consumer Cyclicals/Discretionary, Technology, and Industrials. Basic Materials, Financials, and Communication Services moving up. |
| July 24 | Uptrends | Good | Good | Deploying Capital | Consumer Cyclicals/Discretionary, Technology, and Industrials. Basic Materials, Financials, and Real Estate moving up |
| July 17 | Uptrends | Good | Good | Deploying Capital | Consumer Cyclicals/Discretionary, Technology, and Industrials. Basic Materials and Real Estate moving up. |
| July 10 | Uptrends | Good | Good | Deploying Capital | Consumer Cyclicals/Discretionary, Technology, and Industrials. |
| July 3, 2023 | Uptrends | Good | Good | Deploying capital | Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclicals/Discretionary, and Industrials. Most sectors performing pretty well. |
| June 26 | All US indices in at least short-term uptrends | OK | Ok | Deploying Capital | Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Cyclicals/Discretionary, and Industrials. |
| June 19 | All US indices in at least short-term uptrends | Ok | Ok | Deploying Capital | Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclicals, and Industrials |
| June 12, 2023 | Mixed trends, but all moving. Nasdaq & S&P 500 strong. | Ok | Ok | Deploying capital | Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Cyclicals |
| June 5 | Mixed trends, but all moving up | Ok | Ok | Deploying some capital | Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclicals |
| May 30 | Nasdaq uptrend, rest mixed | On cusp | Improving | Deploying some capital | Technology and Communication Services |
| May 22 | Nasdaq uptrend, rest mixed | On cusp | Flat | Deploying some capital (if I see very high-quality setups) | Technology and Communication Services |
| May 15, 2023 | Nasdaq uptrend, rest mixed | On cusp | Flat | Deploying some capital (if I see very high-quality setups) | Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare |
| May 8 | Nasdaq uptrend, rest are mixed | On Cusp | Flat | Deploying some capital (if I see very high-quality setups) | Technology and Healthcare |
| May 1 | Nasdaq uptrend, rest are mixed | Improving/On the Cusp | Flat | Deploying some capital (if I see very high-quality setups) | Healthcare, communication services, and technology |
| April 24 | Nasdaq uptrend, rest are mixed | Improving/On the Cusp | Flat | Deploying some capital (if I see very high-quality setups) | Pretty much everything doing well in the last month. Healthcare doing well on all time frames. |
| April 17, 2023 | Nasdaq upternd, rest are mixed | Improving/On the Cusp | Good | Deploying some capital if I see quality setups. Very selective. | Basic materials, Energy strong recently. Healthcare decent on all time frames. Technology and Communication Services still worth watching. |
| April 10. | Nasdaq uptrend. Other indices are neutral to weak. | Poor | No trades. Not much on watchlist. | Nothing | Technology, consumer cyclical, and communications services |
| April 3. | Pullbacks or downtrends, except Nasdaq in uptrend | Poor | No trades | Nothing | Technology, consumer cyclical, and communications services |
| March 27 | In pullback, several near prior lows, SP 500 mid-range, Nasdaq100 at swing high | Poor | No trade | Nothing | Technology and communications services |
| March 20, 2023 | Pullback, possible reversal | Poor | No trade | Nothing | Technology and communications services |
| March 13 | Pullback | Poor | No trade | Nothing | Technology, industrials, and energy holding up the best |
| March 6 | Pullback | Cusp | Good (but few triggering) | Buying (very cautious | Basic Materials, Consumer Cyclicals, Communication Services, Technology, Industrials, and Financials |
| Feb. 27 | Pullback | Cusp | Good (but few triggering) | Buying (cautious) | Consumer Cyclicals, Communication Services, Technology, Real Estate, Industrials, and Financials |
| Feb 20 | Flat the last week | Good | Good (but few if any setups) | Buying | Consumer Cyclicals, Communication Services, Technology, Real Estate, Industrials, and Financials |
| Feb. 13, 2023 | Moving Up | Good | Good | Buying | Consumer Cyclicals, Communication Services, Technology, Real Estate, and Financials |
| Feb 6 | Moving up | Good | Good | Buying | Consumer Cyclicals, Communication Services, Technology, Real Estate, and Financials |
| Jan 30, 2023 | Moving up | Good | Good | Buying | Basic materials, Consumer Cyclicals, Communication Services, Technology, Real Estate, and Financials |
| Jan 23 | Moving up | Good | Good | Buying | Basic material, everything else doing pretty well |
| Jan 16 | Moving up | Good | Good | Buying | Basic materials, Industrials, Financials, and healthcare |
| January 9 | Moving up after a sideways period | OK | OK | Buying | Basic materials, Industrials, Financials, and Healthcare |
| January 1, 2023 | Short-term downtrends | Poor | OK | No new purchases | Energy, basic materials, Industrials, and Healthcare |
| Dec. 19, 2022 | Short-term downtrends | Poor | OK | No new purchases | Basic materials, Industrials, and Healthcare |
| Dec. 12 | Right on the cusp of a downtrend. Could go either way. | Still ok, but right on the cusp. | Ok, not great. | Conservatively buying. Limited capital. If indices drop, not buying. | basic materials, Industrials, healthcare, and financials |
| Dec. 5 | short-term uptrends | Good | Good | Buying if setups occur | basic materials, Industrials, healthcare, and financials |
| Nov. 28, 2022 | short-term uptrends | Good | Good | Buying if setups occur | basic materials, Industrials, and Financials |
| Nov. 21 | short-term uptrends | Good | Good | Buying if setups occur | basic materials, Industrials, and Financials |
| Nov. 14 | short-term uptrends | Good | Ok | Buying if setups occur | basic materials, Industrials, Financials, and Energy |
| Nov. 7, 2022 | short-term uptrend, except Nasdaq 100 | Mediocre. Everything good except recent >2% daily drop in S&P 500 | Doing Ok, nothing great. | Holding current positions. Not taking new positions this week. | energy, industrials, financials, and basic materials |
| Oct. 31 | Short-term uptrend | Ok | Doing ok, nothing amazing | starting to take some positions | energy, industrials, financials, and healthcare |
| Oct 24 | Downtrend, but pushing up at prior swing highs | FTD + Lowry upside day | Not published publically, But I did scan – LLY, plus a few others. All did very well in the past week | Started taking some positions. | energy, basic materials, healthcare, financials, and industries |
| Oct 17, 2022 | Downtrend: ST, LT | Poor, All | N/A – no trades, stocks performing poorly | No long swing trades | energy, healthcare, financials, and industries |
| Oct 10 | Downtrend: ST, LT | Poor, All | N/A – no trades, stocks performing poorly | No long swing trades | Energy, ind, basic mat, finc, holding up best over all all the time frames |
| Oct 3 | Downtrend: ST, LT | Poor, All | N/A – no trades, stocks performing poorly | No long swing trades | Industrials, Con Cyc, and Fin holding up better than most, but still down. Energy Up on the week. |
| Sept. 26, 2022 | Downtrend: ST, LT | Poor, All | N/A – no trades, stocks performing poorly | No long swing trades | 3&1 month – all negative. Fin, Ind, Con Cyc holding up the best. |
