Sovereign Debt Relief and Its Aftermath (2024)

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Carmen M. Reinhart

1Harvard University, Kennedy School

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Christoph Trebesch

2University of Munich

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Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 14, Issue 1, 1 February 2016, Pages 215–251, https://doi.org/10.1111/jeea.12166

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01 February 2016

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    Carmen M. Reinhart, Christoph Trebesch, Sovereign Debt Relief and Its Aftermath, Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 14, Issue 1, 1 February 2016, Pages 215–251, https://doi.org/10.1111/jeea.12166

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Abstract

This paper studies sovereign debt relief in a long-term perspective. We quantify the relief achieved through default and restructuring in two distinct samples: 1920–1939, focusing on the defaults on official (government to government) debt in advanced economies after World War I; and 1978–2010, focusing on emerging market debt crises with private external creditors. Debt relief was substantial in both eras, averaging 21% of GDP in the 1930s and 16% of GDP in recent decades. We then analyze the aftermath of debt relief and conduct a difference-in-differences analysis around the synchronous war debt defaults of 1934 and the Baker and Brady initiatives of the 1980s/1990s. The economic landscape of debtor countries improves significantly after debt relief operations, but only if these involve debt write-offs. Softer forms of debt relief, such as maturity extensions and interest rate reductions, are not generally followed by higher economic growth or improved credit ratings.

© 2016 by the European Economic Association

JEL

E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook F3 - International Finance H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt N0 - General

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Sovereign Debt Relief and Its Aftermath (2024)

FAQs

What is the downside to debt relief? ›

Cons of debt settlement

Creditors are not legally required to settle for less than you owe. Stopping payments on your bills (as most debt relief companies suggest) will damage your credit score. Debt settlement companies can charge fees. If over $600 is settled, the IRS will view this debt as a taxable income.

How many times has Argentina defaulted? ›

Argentina has defaulted on its international sovereign debt nine times, including three times during the past two decades.

Is the sovereign debt safe? ›

Types of Sovereign Debt

Bonds issued by developed economies, such as Germany, Switzerland, or Canada, usually carry very high credit ratings. 12 They are considered extremely safe and offer relatively low yields.

Has any country ever defaulted on its debt? ›

The prospect of sovereign default is scary for investors, but many countries have never defaulted on their debts. Ecuador has defaulted 10 times in modern history, and Venezuela has defaulted 11 times.

Is it a good idea to go with a debt relief program? ›

Debt relief will also often give you a fixed payment plan and a set payoff date, which can also make it worth considering — as streamlining your payments can make it easier to manage while helping you save money on interest. "One of the biggest advantages of going through a debt relief program is the savings.

Is debt relief settlement a good idea? ›

The bottom line. Debt settlement can be a viable option for those struggling with overwhelming debt, offering the potential for significant debt reduction and financial relief.

How did Argentina get so deeply in debt? ›

The Argentine government entered a “debt trap” by mid 2001.

The changes in monetary policy reduced confidence in the peso. Even interest rates in dollars within Argentina rose substantially, because of concern that loans and deposits in dollars were also at risk from government policies.

What caused Argentina's debt? ›

When many countries increased production of the same product at the same time prices plummeted. The increase in interest rates and fall in revenue from commodities led to a debt crisis for many countries including Argentina.

What happens if Argentina defaults again? ›

A default now by the federal government would cut off provincial governments' access to fresh, dollar-based bonds, Caicedo noted. Devaluation: With reserves dwindling, Argentina would face added pressure to undergo another round of devaluing its peso.

Which country has no debt? ›

1) Switzerland

Switzerland is a country that, in practically all economic and social metrics, is an example to follow. With a population of almost 9 million people, Switzerland has no natural resources of its own, no access to the sea, and virtually no public debt.

Who owns the most US sovereign debt? ›

Top Foreign Owners of US National Debt
  • Japan. $1,153.1. 14.37%
  • China. $797.7. 9.94%
  • United Kingdom. $753.5. 9.39%
  • Luxembourg. $376.5. 4.69%
  • Canada. $339.8. 4.23%

Is a sovereign debt crisis coming? ›

The coronavirus pandemic is a game-changer for the global economy. The years 2020 and 2021 will be lost years for growth. The Economist Intelligence Unit only expects global GDP to recover to pre-coronavirus levels in 2022.

Who does the US owe money to? ›

Nearly half of all US foreign-owned debt comes from five countries.
Country/territoryUS foreign-owned debt (January 2023)
China$859,400,000,000
United Kingdom$668,300,000,000
Belgium$331,100,000,000
Luxembourg$318,200,000,000
6 more rows

What is the largest debt default in history? ›

The biggest private default in history is Lehman Brothers, with over $600 billion when it filed for bankruptcy in 2008 (equivalent to over $830 billion in 2023). The biggest sovereign default is Greece, with $138 billion in March 2012 (equivalent to $192 billion in 2023).

Has Mexico ever defaulted on its debt? ›

Under President Salinas, Mexico signed the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with the United States and Canada, which went into effect in January 1994. The second was to regain access to international financial markets, which Mexico had lost after defaulting on its debt in 1982.

Does debt forgiveness hurt your credit? ›

Credit card debt forgiveness could hurt your credit

You stop making payments to your creditors as you save for your settlement. Creditors typically report the debt as "settled" rather than "paid as agreed" on your credit report once it's paid off. This shows that the creditor wasn't able to collect on the full debt.

Do it yourself debt relief pros and cons? ›

Understanding the Process of Debt Settlement
Pros of DIY Debt SettlementCons of DIY Debt Settlement
Total control of the processTotal responsibility for the process
Potential faster repayment of debtRequires more time, patience, effort, and negotiating skill than you may have at hand
2 more rows

What are the pros and cons of debt solutions? ›

It's possible to streamline your monthly debt payments into a single payment, lower your interest rate, improve your credit health and pay down credit cards faster. Still, you may also have to pay fees for a consolidation loan, and there is no guarantee that you'll get a lower rate than you currently have.

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