S&P 500 - Talking Points
- breaks above 4,000 mark to start Q2 after ISM print impresses investors
- President Joe Biden’s Thursday infrastructure announcement helps lift sentiment
- Asia-Pacific markets set for quiet open with Australia, New Zealand markets closed
The Quiz Discover what kind of forex trader you areStart Quiz The S&P 500 put in a fresh record-high close on Thursday after a stronger-than-expected manufacturing report from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) injected bullish energy into equity markets. US manufacturers, according to the report, are being overrun with heavy demand, indicated by a sharp swing higher in new orders. The benchmark S&P 500 index closed just shy of 4,020 after rising 1.18% on the day.
Technology stocks also rose strongly into the extended US holiday weekend, with the Nasdaq 100 index recording a 1.82% rally. Elsewhere, the small-cap Russell 2000 index gained 1.50%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) climbed 0.52%. The US Dollar weakened against most major G10 peer currencies.
Thursday marked the end of the trading week for the United States, with stock markets set to reopen on Monday following the Easter holiday. Bond markets, however, will see a shortened trading day on Friday. Speaking of bond markets, Treasuries saw buying across most tenures except the 2-year. The benchmark 10-year yield fell 4.15%.
The US government bond market recorded its worst loss in years, particularly in long-dated Treasuries. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF – composed of bonds with a maturity over 20 years – saw a violent 14.83% decline in the first quarter. The roiled Treasury market will likely remain in focus going forward as investors remain doubtful that the Fed won’t prematurely raise rates amid a stimulus-fueled domestic economy that continues to heat up.
S&P 500, US Dollar (DXY), 10-Year Treasury Yield – 30 Minute Chart
Chart created with TradingView
Recommended by Thomas Westwater Learn how to become a more consistent forex traderGet My GuideFriday’s Asia-Pacific Outlook
The Asia-Pacific session is set to be a bit quieter than usual with closed markets in Australia and New Zealand for the Good Friday holiday. Australia’s ASX 200 gained 0.56% on Thursday to kick off the second quarter. Equity markets across the rest of the APAC region also gained. Market sentiment received a boost after US President Joe Biden outlined his infrastructure plan early Thursday when the US leader called for a $2.25 trillion investment in roads, bridges, airports, and green energy infrastructure.
The Australian Dollar is moving higher on broader Greenback weakness. AUD/USD initially was moving lower on Thursday, threatening to break below a key support level from a Head and Shoulders pattern, but subsequently shifted higher later in the session. The move higher comes despite a worse-than-expected trade report out of Australia that showed weakness in exports.
Friday’s economic event calendar is void of high- and medium-impact events, according to the DailyFX Economic Calendar. Thailand will see business confidence and unemployment data cross the wires, while India will release its foreign exchange reserves for the week ending March 26. While US markets are closed tomorrow, traders will have a close eye on the highly-anticipated non-farm payrolls report, with the consensus estimate slated to print at 647k, which would nearly double the prior month’s figure.
Recommended by Thomas Westwater Improve your trading with IG Client Sentiment DataGet My GuideS&P 500 Technical Outlook
The S&P 500’s break above the 4,000 level saw prices rise above the upper trendline of a Rising Wedge pattern. While technically a bearish pattern, the break above resistance highlights the underlying strength in US markets. And now, with a full retracement of the last leg lower, the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement shifts into view at the 4,064 level.
Alternatively, a move back into the wedge could be viewed as a bearish development. However, given the broader trend higher, any pullback will likely be transitory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing some bearish divergence, although the MACD oscillator is trending higher, pointing to healthy momentum.
S&P 500 Daily Chart
Chart created with TradingView
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--- Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com
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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
FAQs
Price index
| Category | All-time highs |
|---|
| Closing | 5,254.35 | Thursday, March 28, 2024 |
| Intraday | 5,264.85 | Thursday, March 28, 2024 |
As a whole, analysts are optimistic about the outlook for stock prices in 2024. The consensus analyst price target for the S&P 500 is 5,090, suggesting roughly 8.5% upside from current levels.
What is the SP 500 prediction for 2024? ›
The estimates from strategists put the median target for the S&P 500 at 5,200 by the end of 2024, implying a decline of less than 1% from Friday's level, according to MarketWatch calculations. Heading into 2024, the median target was around 5,000 (see table below).
How much will the S&P 500 be worth in 2025? ›
Meanwhile, the median streak of positive returns can extend to 17 months with a gain of 14%, based on historical data. That suggests the S&P 500 could trade to 6,000 by August 2025, and to as high as 6,150 by November 2025.
How much will the S&P 500 grow in the next 10 years? ›
Returns in the S&P 500 over the coming decade are more likely to be in the 3%-6% range, as multiples and margins are unlikely to expand, leaving sales growth, buybacks, and dividends as the main drivers of appreciation.
What is the most spy has moved in one day? ›
How does SPY usually behave after a large single-day down move in the stock price? Using the 12 largest single-day down moves over the last 3 years in SPY stock, the average move was -3.4% with the single largest daily move of -4.3% occurring on 13-Sep-2022.
How much will the S&P 500 be worth in 2030? ›
Stock market forecast for the next decade
| Year | Price |
|---|
| 2027 | 6200 |
| 2028 | 6725 |
| 2029 | 7300 |
| 2030 | 8900 |
5 more rowsApr 26, 2024
While stock prices are up significantly compared to a year or two ago, the good news is that with the right strategy, there's never necessarily a bad time to invest. Building wealth in the stock market is a long-term strategy.
What is the expected return of the stock market in the next 10 years? ›
U.S. stock returns: 2023 optimism carries forward
This heightened optimism is on par with the positive outlook in December 2021, when investors anticipated a 6% stock market return for 2022. Investor expectations for stock returns over the long run (defined as the next 10 years) rose slightly to 7.2%.
Is the stock market expected to go up in 2024? ›
Anthony Denier, CEO of the trading platform Webull, says he believes the stock market will ultimately post a positive return in 2024 as investors anticipate interest rate cuts by the Fed. However, he adds, we probably won't see as big of a rally as we did in 2023.
"While we maintain a positive view on the U.S. stock market in 2024, there are a range of risk factors that could derail the current bull market," Dilley says.
Is the S&P 500 overvalued? ›
The average S&P 500 stock — not just the 'Magnificent Seven' — is overvalued, Goldman says. The average S&P 500 stock has joined the "Magnificent Seven" in overvalued territory, according to Goldman Sachs Group.
What is the sp500 prediction for 2026? ›
Ed Yardeni, the renowned economist and market expert, has made a bold prediction for the future of the stock market. He believes that the S&P 500 could surge by a whopping 26% by 2026 to 6,500.
Does the S&P 500 double every 5 years? ›
How long has it historically taken a stock investment to double? NYU business professor Aswath Damodaran has done the math. According to his math, since 1949 S&P 500 investments have doubled ten times, or an average of about seven years each time.
How high will the Nasdaq go in 2024? ›
Here's the Growth Stock to Buy Right Now. The Nasdaq-100 technology index plunged into a bear market in 2022 on the back of a 33% loss for the year.
What is the 20 year return of the S&P 500? ›
The historical average yearly return of the S&P 500 is 9.74% over the last 20 years, as of the end of February 2024. This assumes dividends are reinvested. Adjusted for inflation, the 20-year average stock market return (including dividends) is 6.96%.
What's the highest stock price ever? ›
Berkshire Hathaway is the most expensive stock listed on U.S. exchanges. At the time of this writing, Berkshire Hathaway stock was trading at $623,000 a share — but that price is for its Class A stock (BRK. A). Retail investors can buy its Class B stock (BRK.
What is the growth rate of the S&P 500 in the last 20 years? ›
5-year, 10-year, 20-year and 30-year S&P 500 returns
| Period (start-of-year to end-of-2023) | Average annual S&P 500 return |
|---|
| 15 years (2009-2023) | 12.63% |
| 20 years (2004-2023) | 9.00% |
| 25 years (1999-2023) | 7.18% |
| 30 years (1994-2023) | 9.67% |
2 more rowsMay 3, 2024
S&P 500 3 Year Return is at 20.44%, compared to 32.26% last month and 43.16% last year.
