Risk/Reward Heat Map Methodology (2024)

Risk/Reward Heat Map Methodology
By, Simon Maierhofer
Wednesday February 05, 2020
Imagine having a simply graphic that visually illustrates when to expect the most stock market risk or the best reward. The Risk/Reward Heat Map is a sophisticated stock market ‘pros and cons’ list that visually expresses risk and reward.

The Risk/Reward Heat Map (RRHM) is essentially a sophisticated 'pros and cons' list that visually expresses whether risk or reward will dominate over a specific time frame.

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Process of Compiling RRHM

  • The calculation starts with identifying a unique event, such as: The S&P 500 broke to a new all-time high for the first time in 1 year (more examples of events below are listed below).

  • Once the event is identified, we look for past events (or occasions) that fit the same criteria.

  • Once past events are identified, we calculate the forward performance (for each individual event) for the next 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 12 month.

  • Once the forward returns are calculated, weconsider the result anindicator, study or signal (ISS).

  • If 80% or more of a particular ISS show a positive return for a certain timeframe, it is added to the bullish column for that time period. One ISS can be bullish or bearish for multiple time frames (I.e. ISS is bearish for the next 2 and 3 month, but bullish for the next 6 and 12 month)

  • If 50% or less of a particular ISS show a negative return for a certain period of time, it is added to the bearish column for that time period.

Here is an actual example of an event and corresponding ISS published in the December 15, 2019 Profit Radar Report:

Event:For the first time since January 26, 2018 (474 days ago), the NY Composite set a new all-time high.

ISS:The NYC reached a new high for the first time in more than 400 days 8 other times since 1970.

2 weeks later, the NYC was up 4 times (50%), 1 month later up 6 times (75%), 2 month later up 7 times (88%), 3 month later up 8 times (100%), 6 month later up 7 times (88%), 1 year later up 8 times (100%).”

Below is a sampling of events that have been considered in the past. The examples are listed to show the depth and variety of events used to compile the risk/reward heat map. “X” and “[]” indicate variables.

  • [index]may refer to S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, NY Composite

  • [high or low]may refer to all-time high, 52-week high, highest or lowest level in X days/weeks/month, X above or below a moving average, bollinger band, or other indicator.

  • [indicator]may refer to RSI, MACD, CBOE put/call ratio, hedgers’ exposure, NY Composite a/d line, unemployment claims, yield curve, analyst estimates, sentiment polls, Hindenburg Omen signals, technical breakout or breakdown, period of time above/below certain threshold, or other sentiment, economic, breadth, liquidity indicator

Examples of Events

  • [Index] registered a new [high or low]

  • [Index] registered a new [high or low] for the first time in [X] days

  • [Index] registered a new [high or low] for the first time in [X] days, while [indicator] set new [high or low]

  • [Index] came within [X] percent of a new [high or low] while [indicator] stayed [X] above or below [high or low].

  • [Index] registered a new [high or low] while [x] percent of [indicator] set new [high or low]

  • [Index A] outperformed [index B] for [X]

  • [Index A] outperformed [index B] for [X] while [indicator] set new [high or low]

  • [Index] traded [X] consecutive days above [indicator]

  • [Index] traded [X] consecutive days above [indicator 1] while above [indicator 2]

  • CLICK HERE FOR A LIST OF ACTUAL STUDIES (ISSs) INCLUDED IN THE RISK/REWARD HEAT MAP

Analysis

There are 3 ways to categorize the RRHM:

  1. Total signals (bullish and bearish)
  2. Net signals only
  3. Change (total or net) for a specific timeframe

Analysis #1 and #2 allow us to identify time periods of elevated risk or reward. Time is only one component of market forecasting, price is another - more important - one. A break below support or above resistance is usually required to start validating the message conveyed by the RRHM.

Analysis #3 allows us to identify changes. For example: The RRHM may project risk in February. If true to the projection, the S&P 500 drops X % in February, and ISSs start giving much more bullish signals, the RRHM change may indicate when a bottom is in.

The most recent RRHM will be available via the Profit Radar Report (along with a detailed interpretation and analysis of other factors), but below is a copy of the January 1 RRHM. Since January 1, an additional 56 ISS have been catolgued and included in the RRHM.

Risk/Reward Heat Map Methodology (1)

Continued updates, projections, buy/sell recommendations are available via theProfit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF, LLC and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report.Barron's rated iSPYETF as a "trader with a good track record" (click here forBarron's evaluation of the Profit Radar Report).The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, 24.52% in 2015, 52.26% in 2016, and 23.39% in 2017.

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Risk/Reward Heat Map Methodology (2024)

FAQs

How to calculate risk reward formula? ›

To calculate risk-reward ratio, divide net profits (which represent the reward) by the cost of the investment's maximum risk. For instance, for a risk-reward ratio of 1:3, the investor risks $1 to hopefully gain $3 in profit. For a 1:4 risk-reward ratio, an investor is risking $1 to potentially make $4.

What is a good risk-reward ratio for options? ›

In many cases, market strategists find the ideal risk/reward ratio for their investments to be approximately 1:3, or three units of expected return for every one unit of additional risk. Investors can manage risk/reward more directly through the use of stop-loss orders and derivatives such as put options.

What is a 1 to 2 risk reward ratio? ›

If you set a profit target of 100 pips and risk 50 pips, this equals a risk/reward ratio of 1:2. This is because, for every 50 pips you risk, you have the chance earn back a profit of double the amount.

What is the formula for reward to risk ratio using beta? ›

We can use the following formula to compute the reward to risk ratio: reward-to-risk ratio = (expected return - risk free rate) / beta.

What is a 1 to 3 risk-reward ratio? ›

Risk-Reward Ratio (1:3): For every trade you take, you are willing to risk 1 unit of your capital (e.g., $100) to potentially gain 3 units (e.g., $300) if the trade goes in your favor. Now, let's consider the win rate: 2. Win Rate: This represents the percentage of your trades that are profitable.

What is an example of risk formula? ›

Risk is commonly defined as: Risk = Threat x Vulnerability x Consequence.

Is a 2 to 1 risk reward ratio good? ›

A positive reward:risk ratio such as 2:1 would dictate that your potential profit is larger than any potential loss, meaning that even if you suffer a losing trade, you only need one winning trade to make you a net profit.

Is a 1.5 risk reward ratio good? ›

A commonly cited benchmark in trading is the 1.5 risk-reward ratio. This ratio suggests that for every unit of risk taken (usually measured as a percentage or dollar amount), an investor should aim for a potential reward that is one and a half times greater.

What is a bad risk reward ratio? ›

In general, traders avoid opening trades that have 1 risk and less than 1 reward ratio. For instance, if you find a trading setup that requires you to place Stop Loss 90 pips away and Take Profit target is 30 pips away, most professional traders will not take the trade.

What should be the risk reward ratio for beginner? ›

Industry professionals often cite 2:1 as the optimal risk-reward ratio for beginners. That would work, for example, by setting a take-profit order at twice the value of the stop-loss. This could be used alongside other risk-management strategies.

What is the highest risk reward ratio? ›

To increase your chances of profitability, you want to trade when you have the potential to make 3 times more than you are risking. If you give yourself a 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio, you have a significantly greater chance of ending up profitable in the long run.

What is a 10 to 1 risk reward ratio? ›

10:1 risk reward holds a 90.91%, break even chance, more like 1:1 has a 50%, like a coin flip. It might be difficult, but after doing some research with a random EA on MT4, bigger numbers of risk reward ratio do increase the percentage slight. Say 10(TP)/100(SL) will be 89%, and 20(TP)/200(SL) will be 90.

Is profit factor the same as risk reward? ›

Profit Factor in Trading

Simply put, it quantifies the relationship between profitability and risk, providing traders with valuable insights into the performance of their strategies. A Profit Factor greater than 1 indicates that the strategy generates more profit than loss, suggesting a favorable risk-reward profile.

Is 1 to 1 risk reward ratio good? ›

A 1:1 ratio means that you're risking as much money if you're wrong about a trade as you stand to gain if you're right. This is the same risk/reward ratio that you can get in casino games like roulette, so it's essentially gambling. Most experienced traders target a risk/reward ratio of 1:3 or higher.

How to calculate risk reward ratio in TradingView? ›

🔷 Calculating the RRR

Let's say the distance between your entry and stop loss is 50 points and the distance between the entry and your take profit is 100 points . Then the reward risk ratio is 2:1 because 100/50 = 2.

What is the formula for risk adjusted reward? ›

Sharpe Ratio = (Return - Risk Free Rate) / Volatility

You had to withstand twice as much volatility — the degree of variation in the price of a security over time — to achieve the same portfolio return for Investment B vs. Investment A, meaning Investment A was a better performer on a risk-adjusted basis.

What is the rule of 72 and how is it calculated? ›

The Rule of 72 is a calculation that estimates the number of years it takes to double your money at a specified rate of return. If, for example, your account earns 4 percent, divide 72 by 4 to get the number of years it will take for your money to double. In this case, 18 years.

What is the 1.5 risk-reward ratio? ›

The 1.5 Risk-Reward Ratio: Balancing Risk and Reward

A commonly cited benchmark in trading is the 1.5 risk-reward ratio. This ratio suggests that for every unit of risk taken (usually measured as a percentage or dollar amount), an investor should aim for a potential reward that is one and a half times greater.

What is the formula for total risk? ›

Total Risk = Market Risk + Diversifiable Risk. The total risk of a security portfolio can be divided into systematic and unsystematic risk; systematic risk is the risk that cannot be avoided by any means; it is the inherent risk of the portfolio, and also known as market risk.

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