REITs Thriving as Interest Rates Rise (2024)

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) allow individual investors to purchase shares in commercial real estate portfolios that generate income from the retail, health care, industrial and residential property sectors. Equity REITs trade on the stock exchange, which provides ample liquidity to buy and sell for income, capital growth or a mix of both.

REITs' exposure to the property market means they typically have a low correlation with other stocks and bonds, which can help diversify a portfolio. When considering an investment in this asset class, investors should be mindful that REITs pay the majority of income back to investors through dividends, so only a low amount of taxable income is reinvested. REITs may also incur high management and transaction fees.

Although a higher interest rate environment like we are in now can reduce corporate profit margins, it also indicates a growing economy that allows tenants to afford increased rents. "Over the past 25 years, the total return of REITs in rolling four-quarter periods was positive 87% of the time when interest rates were also rising," according to the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (Nareit), as reported by Reuters.

Investors who want to add REITs to their portfolio should consider these three companies. Let's look at suitable entry points.

Realty Income Corporation (O)

Realty Income, listed in 1994, aims to provide shareholders with dependable monthly income. The company generates cash flow from nearly 6,000 properties leased under long-term agreements to commercial tenants. As of Dec. 10, 2018, Realty Income stock has a market capitalization of $19.5 billion and known as the monthly dividend company, it pays investors a 4.13% forward dividend yield. It is up 6.2% over the past month while returning 19.48% year to date (YTD).

Like most REITs, Realty Income's share price started to trend higher from mid-February. After a minor period of consolidation throughout September and early October, the price continued upward to make a YTD high of $66.42 on Dec. 7. Momentum investors could take an entry on minor retracements to the $64 level, while investors who favor deeper pullbacks should seek to buy near $58, where price finds a confluence of support from an uptrend line dating back to April and horizontal line price action.

REITs Thriving as Interest Rates Rise (1)

Ventas, Inc. (VTR)

Ventas, with a $23.5 billion market cap, holds a diversified portfolio of more than 1,100 properties, which include medical offices, life science facilities, hospitals, rehabilitation centers and acute care facilities. The company owns 40 properties in Canada and the United Kingdom and continues to seek opportunities in countries with mature health care systems. Trading at $65.47, Ventas stock pays a forward yield of 4.98% and has returned nearly 10% over the past month, outperforming the REIT healthcare facilities industry average by 4.3% over the same period as of Dec. 10, 2018.

The Ventas share price tracked lower for the first three months of 2018 before commencing an uptrend in late April. The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) – used by investors to gauge the general market trend – has acted as significant support, with price bouncing off this popular technical indicator in July, September and October. Investors looking to join the short-term trend should look for dips back to the two-month uptrend line at $62. Alternatively, pullbacks to the $59 level provide a high-probability entry point – an area where price finds support from the August swing high.

REITs Thriving as Interest Rates Rise (2)

Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR)

Headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah, Extra Space Storage owns and operates approximately 1,600 self-storage facilities in 39 states plus Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico. In total, the company's properties comprise roughly 122 million square feet of rentable space used to store boats, recreational vehicles (RVs) and business equipment. Extra Space Storage pays a 3.7% forward yield and has a market cap of $13.04 billion. As of Dec. 10, 2018, the REIT has returned 10.24% over the past month while returning 15.72% YTD.

The share price of Extra Space Storage rallied from a low of $75.44 in February to $100.98 in June – a gain of almost 34%. Buyers lost interest between July and September before returning in October. Those who want to buy could look for an entry point at the $92 level, where the price should find support from an uptrend line. More conservative investors may wait for the price to break above the June swing high and enter on the first retest of that level.

REITs Thriving as Interest Rates Rise (3)

REITs Thriving as Interest Rates Rise (2024)

FAQs

Do REITs do well when interest rates rise? ›

REIT Stock Performance and the Interest Rate Environment

Market interest rates typically increase during periods when macroeconomic conditions are strengthening, the same strengthening that often drives positive REIT investment performance.

Will REITs do well in 2024? ›

Among the strongest factors shaping the REITs market as we move into 2024 is the likelihood of federal interest rate cuts. If those do materialize, we could see a lot of growth for the sector. According to Sakwa, that scenario holds true if the Federal Reserve cuts rates multiple times.

Is it a good time to buy REITs now? ›

With rate cuts on the horizon, we believe investors have an opportunity to continue investing into S-Reits as the high estimated dividend yield of close to 7 per cent in 2024 will look increasingly attractive.

Have REITs outperformed the S&P 500? ›

They've certainly done that over the years. Over the long term, our research found that REITs have outperformed stocks. Since 1994, three REIT subgroups stood out for their ability to beat the S&P 500.

Do REITs perform well during inflation? ›

As interest rates rise, they can depress the price of these REITs. So while dividends may climb with interest rates, the price of publicly-traded REITs may decline. Historically, REITs are one of the better-performing sectors during inflationary periods.

Are REITs expected to rise? ›

Looking to 2024 and beyond, it's clear that potential total return outperformance, attractive pricing with converging valuations, and solid balance sheets likely will increase the appeal of REITs and offer investors tactical and strategic investment opportunities.

Will REITs ever recover? ›

Bottom line. Investors eyeing REITs may find a potential recovery ahead. With rate cuts on the horizon, many publicly traded REITs have rebounded, and the industry as a whole seems well-poised for a recovery in the coming year.

Are REITs safe long term? ›

As with any investment, there is always a risk of loss. Publicly traded REITs have the particular risk of losing value as interest rates rise, which typically sends investment capital into bonds.

How are REITs performing? ›

REIT operational performance remained solid in the third quarter of 2023 (the most recent data available). Aggregate REIT NOI rose by 6.3% over the past four quarters, indicating that REITs have been keeping pace with inflation.

Do REITs go down during recession? ›

REITs historically perform well during and after recessions | Pensions & Investments.

Is it better to invest in REITs or real property? ›

Direct real estate offers more tax breaks than REIT investments, and gives investors more control over decision making. Many REITs are publicly traded on exchanges, so they're easier to buy and sell than traditional real estate.

Are REITs riskier than stocks? ›

Investing in REITs is generally less risky than regular stocks due to the regular stream of cash flows from the dividends. However, REITs can still lose value as interest rates rise, and prices depend on market supply and demand, especially when bought after the offer period.

Do REITs do well in rising interest rates? ›

Interest Rates. During periods of economic growth, REIT prices tend to rise along with interest rates. The reason is that a growing economy increases the value of REITs because the value of their underlying real estate assets increases.

Why are REITs not performing well? ›

Interest rate risk. The biggest risk to REITs is when interest rates rise, which reduces demand for REITs. 6 In a rising-rate environment, investors typically opt for safer income plays, such as U.S. Treasuries. Treasuries are government-guaranteed, and most pay a fixed rate of interest.

Which REIT has the best returns? ›

Best-performing REIT ETFs: May 2024
SymbolETF name5-year return
XLREReal Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund3.48%
NURENuveen Short-Term REIT ETF3.47%
REZiShares Residential and Multisector Real Estate ETF3.07%
USRTiShares Core U.S. REIT ETF2.59%
1 more row

Why are REITs not doing well? ›

Interest rate risk. The biggest risk to REITs is when interest rates rise, which reduces demand for REITs. 6 In a rising-rate environment, investors typically opt for safer income plays, such as U.S. Treasuries. Treasuries are government-guaranteed, and most pay a fixed rate of interest.

Why have REITs crashed? ›

Mortgage REITs were affected by the sharp rise in interest rates during 2022 and 2023, and again have been under pressure on the “higher for longer” news. Even as its floating rate portfolio hasn't been directly squeezed by rising rates, BXMT stock is not out of the woods.

Why do REITs earn higher returns? ›

Because of their lower volatility, REIT returns are less correlated with the stock market. That makes REITs an excellent way for investors to build a diversified portfolio and improve their risk and return profile.

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