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@article{Wei2000AgriculturalFP, title={Agricultural Futures Prices and Long Memory Processes}, author={Anning Wei and Raymond M. Leuthold}, journal={Agricultural \& Natural Resource Economics}, year={2000}, url={https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:14122669}}
  • Anning Wei, R. Leuthold
  • Published 1 April 2000
  • Agricultural and Food Sciences, Economics
  • Agricultural & Natural Resource Economics

Price series that are 21.5 years long for six agricultural futures markets, corn, soybeans, wheat, hogs, coffee, and sugar, exhibit time-varying volatility, carry long-range dependence, and portray excessive skewness and kurtosis, though they are covariance stationary. This suggests that the series contain nonlinear dynamics. ARCH and long memory are the two stochastic nonlinear models that are able to produce these symptoms. Though standard ARCH tests suggest that all series might contain ARCH…

14 Citations

Background Citations

6

Methods Citations

1

14 Citations

Spurious Long Memory in Commodity Futures: Implications for Agribusiness Option Pricing
    G. PowerC. Turvey

    Economics, Agricultural and Food Sciences

  • 2007

Long memory, and more precisely fractionally integration, has been put forward as an explanation for the persistence of shocks in a number of economic time series data as well as to reconcile

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THE LONG MEMORY PROPERTY OF HUNGARIAN MARKET PIG PRICES: A COMPARISON OF THREE DIFFERENT METHODS
    S. KovácsPrasert ChaitipC. ChaiboonsriP. Balogh

    Economics, Agricultural and Food Sciences

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The present study investigates the long memory property of market pig prices. Simply knowing that these time series have long term dependence could have strong significance when forecasting prices.

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    P. Dawson

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The efficient market hypothesis, where asset prices follow a random walk and incorporate all relevant information, is often invoked in financial economics. There is some evidence however to suggest

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    Ann. Oper. Res.

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The theoretical results suggest that the single terms of the index drive the long memory of the overall aggregation; moreover, interestingly, the proper selection of the parameters of the model might lead both to cases of persistence and antipersistence.

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Exploring the financial risk of a temperature index: a fractional integrated approach
    R. CastellanoR. CerquetiG. Rotundo

    Environmental Science, Economics

    Annals of Operations Research

  • 2018

This paper introduces a new temperature index, which can suitably represent the underlying of a weather derivative. Such an index is defined as the weighted mean of daily average temperatures

  • PDF
Fractional Integration in Agricultural Futures Price Volatilities
    H. JinDarren L. Frechette

    Agricultural and Food Sciences, Economics

  • 2004

This article tests whether the volatility of agricultural futures prices exhibits fractional integration. Volatility series were constructed for fourteen agricultural futures price series with over

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Investigating the long memory property of the Hungarian market pig prices by using detrended fluctuation analysis
    S. KovácsL. HuzsvaiP. Balogh

    Agricultural and Food Sciences, Economics

  • 2014

A B S T R A C T Within the scope of this study we test the Long Memory property on monthly average pig market prices including piglet, young pig, sow and slaughter pig. We also calculate the Hurst

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Commodity Futures in Asset Allocation

Commodity futures can supply fair investment return and unique diversification benefits to a portfolio manager. The relative performance between commodity futures and traditional financial assets is

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Detecting Chaos from Agricultural Product Price Time Series
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    Agricultural and Food Sciences

    Entropy

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There is chaos in agricultural wholesale price data, which provides a good theoretical basis for selecting reasonable forecasting models as prediction techniques based on chaos theory can be applied to forecasting agricultural prices.

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  • PDF
A review of aggregation techniques for agent-based models: understanding the presence of long-term memory
    R. CerquetiG. Rotundo

    Economics, Computer Science

  • 2014

The aim of this paper is to review a few techniques—though the most relevant in the authors' opinion—for studying the long-term memory as emergent property of systems composed by heterogeneous agents.

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62 References

Long Agricultural Futures Prices: Arch, Long Memory, or Chaos Processes
    Anning WeiR. Leuthold

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Price series that are 21.5 years long for six agricultural futures markets, corn, soybeans, wheat, hogs, coffee and sugar, possess characteristics consistent with nonlinear dynamics. Three nonlinear

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Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices
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A test for long-run memory that is robust to short-range dependence is developed. It is a simple extension of Mandelbrot's "range over standard deviation" or R/S statistic, for which the relevant

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Nonlinear Dynamics of Daily Cash Prices
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Daily cash price changes are not normally distributed. Their empirical distributions have fat tails and most are skewed. In addition, they are not independent. Among the diffusion-jump, extended

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The much-touted randomness of stock and bond market returns masks an underlying fractal structure. That is, there are patterns, or trends, in capital market returns, and they persist over time and

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Do Gold Market Returns Have Long Memory
    Yin-Wong CheungK. Lai

    Economics

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This study examines the long memory behavior in gold returns during the post-Bretton Woods period using a new rescaled range technique. Unlike the conventional rescaled range analysis, the new

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This paper is an empirical study of the links between monetary variables and inflation based on Cagan's equation and its rational expectations solution, when the forcing variable is a fractionally

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ARCH Models: Properties, Estimation and Testing
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The aim of this survey paper is to provide an account of some of the important developments in the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model since its inception in a seminal paper by

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Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression
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This Paper Proposes Some New Tests for Detecting the Presence of a Unit Root in Quite General Time Series Modesl. Our Approach Is Nonparametric with Respect to Nuisance Parameters and Thereby Allows

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Fractal structure in currency futures price dynamics
    Hsing FangK. LaiMichael Lai

    Economics, Mathematics

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Financial economists always strive for better understanding of the market dynamics of financial prices and seek improvement in modeling them. Although there have been many studies devoted to analyze

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