Odds Ratios and St. Patrick's Day: Are 4-Leaf Clovers Really All That Lucky? (2024)

Happy St. Patrick’s Day! You might have found yourself thinking about four-leaf clovers and trying to find one yourself lately. According to Irish tradition, those who find a four-leaf clover are destined for good luck, as each leaf in the clover symbolizes good omens for faith, hope, love, and luck for the finder.

A lesser-known fact about four-leaf clovers is that they aren’t the luckiest symbol after all. Irish legend indicates that those who find a five-leaf clover will actually have more luck and financial success than those who just find a four-leaf clover.

However, good luck can be hard to come by if you’re onlyrelying on finding a four-leaf clover, let alone a five-leaf clover! The estimated statistical odds of finding a four-leaf clover on your first try is 10,000 to 1, and the odds skyrocket to 1,000,000 to 1 if you’re looking to find a five-leaf clover on your first try. (The majority of the clovers you see outside have only three leaves.)

Suppose you want to delve deeper into descriptive statistics and compare the odds of finding a four-leaf clover to the odds of finding a five-leaf clover. In what is known as an odds ratio, you can compare the odds of two events, where the odds of an event equals the probability-the-event-occurs divided by the probability-it-does-not-occur.

In this case, you would find that your odds ratio is 100, showing that it is much more likely for you to find a four-leaf than a five-leaf clover. You can conclude that the odds of finding a four-leaf clover are 100 times greater than your odds of finding a five-leaf clover. (But keep in mind the odds here: it’s still pretty difficult to find a four-leaf clover, especially over a three-leaf clover!)

Are good luck charms actually lucky? Read our post to find out.Odds Ratios and St. Patrick's Day: Are 4-Leaf Clovers Really All That Lucky? (1)

Why Are Odds Ratios Important?

Odds ratios are not just important for comparing the odds of two events (like we did above with the clovers) — they also play an important role in logistic regression. With binary logistic regression (Stat > Regression > Binary Logistic Regression in Minitab Statistical Software), you can investigate the relationship between a binary response and one or more predictors. You can then use the odds ratio for the predictors to quantify how each predictor affects the probabilities of each response.

For example, supposeyou are analyzing data from people who have found four-leaf clovers to determine whether the finder’s gender and age affect their finding abilities. You could create a logistic regression model with the following variables:

VariableTypeDescription
FindBinary responseEquals 0 if the person did not find, and 1 if the person did find
GenderBinary responseEquals 0 if the person is male, and 1 if the person is female
AgeContinuous predictorEquals the person’s age

Suppose the logistic regression procedure declares both predictors to be significant. If gender has an odds ratio of 2.0, you conclude that the odds of a woman finding a four-leaf clover is twice the odds of a man finding a four-leaf clover. If age has an odds ratio of 1.05, you conclude that, for each additional year of the finder’s age, the odds of finding increase by 5%.

For each predictor variable in the logistic regression model, Minitab displays an odds ratio and a confidence interval for the odds ratio.

Of course, this is only a hypothetical example! I’m not sure your age or gender reallymatters—I think finding a four-leaf clover is all about LUCK. And that's pretty difficult to quantify!

Odds Ratios and St. Patrick's Day: Are 4-Leaf Clovers Really All That Lucky? (2024)

FAQs

Odds Ratios and St. Patrick's Day: Are 4-Leaf Clovers Really All That Lucky? ›

In this case, you would find that your odds ratio is 100, showing that it is much more likely for you to find a four-leaf than a five-leaf clover. You can conclude that the odds of finding a four-leaf clover are 100 times greater than your odds of finding a five-leaf clover.

Is a four-leaf clover actually lucky? ›

It's a rare variation of the common three-leaf clover, and because your chances of finding one with four leaves is about 1 in 10,000, they're considered lucky. Four-leaf clovers have been around for ages, and their supposed lucky powers are talked about in centuries-old legends.

What are the odds of finding a lucky four-leaf clover? ›

A quick Google search says the odds of finding a four-leaf clover on your first try is about 1 in 10,000 - but a 2017 analysis of 5.7 million clovers over six countries suggests your chances are closer to 1 in 5,000 - and while that's much better, it looks like four-leaf clovers are a rare find no matter how you slice ...

What are the chances of finding a four-leaf clover on St. Patrick's Day? ›

The odds of finding a four-leaf clover are one in ten thousand.

What ratio of shamrocks actually have the lucky 4th leaf? ›

It is debated whether the fourth leaf is caused genetically or environmentally. Its relative rarity (1 in 5,000 clovers) suggests a possible recessive gene appearing at a low frequency. Alternatively, four-leaf clovers could be caused by somatic mutation or a developmental error of environmental causes.

What's more lucky 3 or 4 leaf clover? ›

The four-leafed clover, or “lucky clover”, is an uncommon variation of the three-leafed clover, and widely considered to be a symbol of good luck. Because they are a mutation, they are rare, and not found in the same abundance as the shamrock, and thus, considered lucky.

Is it really rare to find a four-leaf clover? ›

According to The Weather Network, a four-leaf clover is rare, and difficult to find. A quick Google search said the odds are 1 in 10,000, but a 2017 study says chances are much better, with a 1 in 5,000 chance. Inside Science also reported 1 in 10,000 odds.

How rare is a 5 leaf clover? ›

Five-leaf clovers are incredibly rare.

It's estimated that you only have about a 1 in 10,000 chance of finding a four-leaf clover. That's already a pretty rare find, so imagine how much rarer a five-leaf clover must be. Some estimate that your chances of finding a five-leaf clover is about 1 in 100,000!

Which is more rare 3 or 4 leaf clover? ›

According to Readers Digest, an independent survey of 5.7 million clovers conducted by researchers in Switzerland had a more encouraging conclusion. They observed one four-leaf clover for every 5076 three-leaf specimens in the study. The rarity of this phenomenon has to do with genetics.

Is finding a 5 leaf clover lucky? ›

Five-leaf clovers are also meant to bring more luck and financial success to the finder than a four-leaf.

Should I pick a four-leaf clover? ›

Why are four-leaf clovers lucky? Four-leaf clovers are considered lucky for their rarity. In the Middle Ages, it was believed by some Celtic groups that wielding a four-leaf clover would help you see fairies, as well as ward off evil spirits and grant the holder good luck.

What does it mean if you always find four-leaf clovers? ›

Different types of four leaved clovers you can find in nature. Finding a four leaved clover is said to bring good luck and fortune to those who come across them. While the traditional three leaved clover is common, the four leaved variety is said to be luckier and rarer to find.

What is 🍀? ›

A four-leaf clover, a symbol of good luck.

Is St. Patrick's Day a 3- or 4-leaf clover? ›

A shamrock is a three-leaf clover and is the symbol of Ireland. Legend has it that St. Patrick used the shamrock to explain the Holy Trinity to the Irish people.

What is the profit margin for Patrick's four-leaf clovers? ›

A merchandising company's income from operations is determined by subtracting cost of goods sold from net sales. What is the profit margin for Patrick's Four Leaf Clovers? The profit margin is calculated as follows: $23,360 ÷ $172,800 = 13.5%.

How much luck does a four-leaf clover give? ›

According to Irish tradition, those who find a four-leaf clover are destined for good luck, as each leaf in the clover symbolizes good omens for faith, hope, love, and luck for the finder. A lesser-known fact about four-leaf clovers is that they aren't the luckiest symbol after all.

What is the spiritual meaning of the 4 leaf clover? ›

In fact, the four-leaved clover has been deeply rooted in mythology and symbolism throughout history. Some cultures believed that each of the leaves represents something, such as faith, hope, love, and luck. Others saw it as a symbol of protection against evil spirits.

Is it bad luck to pluck a four-leaf clover? ›

As Adam and Eve were leaving the Garden of Eden, Eve is said to have plucked a single four-leafed clover as a souvenir of paradise, and this religious connection has led to them being considered lucky ever since.

Should you wish on a four-leaf clover? ›

If you find a four-leaf clover, make a wish on it. As you wish on it, hold it over your head or put it in your shoe. Another tradition is that after you have wished on a four-leaf clover, toss it away, or if you see one, do not pick it, but make a wish and the chances of it coming true will grow as the clover grows.

What does it mean when you are my four-leaf clover? ›

A four-leaf clover is an idiom often used to represent luck and good fortune. It refers to a rare variation of the common three-leaf clover plant, where a fourth leaf grows on a single stem.

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