iFOREX Daily Analysis : July 21 ,2017 | Investing.com (2024)

The dollar fell to a thirteenth-month low against most major currencies on Thursday, following a rise in the euro after European Central Bank president Mario Draghi said policymakers would discuss changes to its bond-buying scheme in September.

Investor expectations grew that the European Central Bank is moving closer to cutting down its bond-buying program, after Draghi said the central bank saw signs of “unquestionable improvement” in the euro zone growth and gave signs that policymakers would discuss changes to the bank’s monetary policy in September.

The euro reached near-two-year-highs at $1.1658 against the dollar, following Draghi’s comments and remained on track to post gains for a fifth consecutive month.

The single currency also made significant gains against sterling, with EUR/GBP rising to a seventh month high of £0.8961.

Today, the UK is to report on public sector net borrowing and Canada will be closing the week with data on inflation and retail sales.

GBP/USD

Sterling, fell to $1.2931 against the dollar, giving back some of its recent gains, despite UK retail sales data exceeding expectations.

Retail sales rose by 1.5% in the three months to the end of June, recovering from the 1.4% drop in sales sustained over the first three months of the year.

The UK currency also reached seven month lows against the euro after ECB President Mario Draghi said the bank's Governing Council put off any discussion of the options for a possible shift in monetary policy until the fall.

The focus for today is shifted towards the UK report on public sector net borrowing.

Pivot: 1.2855 Support: 1.2855 1.281 1.277 Resistance: 1.292 1.2945 1.2975 Scenario 1: long positions above 1.2855 with targets at 1.2920 & 1.2945 in extension. Scenario 2: below 1.2855 look for further downside with 1.2810 & 1.2770 as targets. Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum. Gold

Gold prices edged higher on Thursday, reaching $1247 per ounce during the US session, following a sharp drop in the dollar.

A report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s manufacturing index showed an unexpected drop in manufacturing activity to a seasonally adjusted 19.5 in July, well below expectations of a reading of 24.

However, gains in the precious metal were limited by Draghi’s press conference where he said the ECB saw signs of “unquestionable improvement” in Eurozone growth, and indicated that policymakers would discuss on a potential tightening of monetary policy in September.

Pivot: 1239 Support: 1239 1235 1232.5 Resistance: 1248 1252 1255 Scenario 1: long positions above 1239.00 with targets at 1248.00 & 1252.50 in extension. Scenario 2: below 1239.00 look for further downside with 1235.00 & 1232.50 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish. WTI Oil

Crude oil price settled lower on Thursday, as uncertainty ahead of the Opec meeting offset recent data showing a drop in U.S. crude inventories for a third-straight week.

OPEC output increased in June despite an accord to curb production and some members, appear reluctant to introduce further measures to curb supply, insisting that it’s too early to determine whether the current level of production cuts need to be deepened.

OPEC and non-OPEC producers are due to hold a meeting in Russia later this week to discuss the current market situation.

Pivot: 47.22 Support: 46.55 46.32 46.14 Resistance: 47.22 47.46 47.74 Scenario 1: short positions below 47.22 with targets at 46.55 & 46.32 in extension. Scenario 2: above 47.22 look for further upside with 47.46 & 47.74 as targets. Comment: the RSI broke below a bullish trend line. US 500

The S&P and the Dow traded little changed on Thursday, weighed by a drop in retailers and moderate earnings from some big names, while the Nasdaq moved slightly higher.

Home Depot (NYSE:HD) fell 4.1 percent, adding significant pressure on both the Dow and the .

Still, overall earnings continue to beat expectations which, along with a rally in technology shares they are supporting all three major indexes.

Analysts are estimating an 8.6 percent rise in second-quarter earnings and a 4.6 percent increase in revenue for the S&P 500 companies from a year earlier, according to Thomson Reuters.

Pivot: 2469 Support: 2469 2465 2461.25 Resistance: 2478 2482 2487 Scenario 1: long positions above 2469.00 with targets at 2478.00 & 2482.00 in extension. Scenario 2: below 2469.00 look for further downside with 2465.00 & 2461.25 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.