Bushfires have long been a risk inAustralia, often thought of as an issue mainlyfor people living on farming or lifestyle properties surrounded by bushland.
But as the climate changes, once lower-risk houses are projected to be exposed to increasing threat.
This map shows the proportion of residential houses within each Local Government Area (LGA) that currently haveahigh bushfire risk,according to analytics firm Finity Consulting.
"High-risk" means the house has a risk score in the top 5per centof allhouses in Australia in 2023.
It isbased on factors such asvegetation surrounding a property, the slope of the property, road breaks and the climate of the location.
The darker the colour, the higher the proportion of houses in this category.
By running the models forward through the decades, with projected changes to climate as the only variable, governmentand other agencies are able to get a glimpse into how that risk may change.
By 2050, under high-emissions scenarios — regularly used to assess physical risk— the pale pink shadow over some areas of Australia deepens to crimson.
It illustrates the increasing number of homes that would be classed as high-riskby today's standards.
By 2090, many previously blank LGAsstart to show colour, while others darken to maroon.
The change in the models isparticularly evident through the Shire of Augusta Margaret River, in Western Australia.
The number of high-riskhomes in the famous wine region increases from 20 per cent in 2023to a quarter in 2050, and over half by 2090.
On the other side of the country, homes in thetourist areas of Byron Bay and Noosa also show a substantial increaseto bushfire risk.
A relatively small percentage of houses in the areaconsidered high-risktodayjumps to more than one in three houses by 2090.
Homes in Byron were threatened by bushfire as recently as last week, whena blazefanned by gale-force windstore throughcoastal bushland.
Further south,a similar story in the data can also beseen unfolding across the Blue Mountains, the Central Coast Council and the Shire of Hornsby.
One of the starkest changes nationallyis in the Blue Mountains, which changes from 26 per cent of houses being high-risktoday, to nearly 90 per cent in 2090.
For Central Coast resident Agnes Vas, who lives on acreage adjacent to bushland,it's a worrying thought.
"How do you really prepare yourself for something like that when you've never really encountered something like that?" she says.
The push to reduce risk
Finity'sdata is based on ahigh-emissions scenario, as that iswidely used bygovernments, banksand other agenciesto understand the scope of risk and inform future planning — thoughrecent peer-reviewed researchidentifies mid-range emissions scenarios as more likely, provided world energypledges come to pass.
Now the data is being used ina practical tool, flagged by the Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements, that lets individuals and communities realise their own vulnerabilities, plan for change and go into disastersbetter prepared.
Known as the Bushfire Resilience Rating, the app is a world-first rating system that assesses how vulnerable a specific house is to bushfire.
It then provides a list of ways it can be made stronger.
To do so, the appcombines information about the house, provided by the user, with detailed data about the local environment and the currentclimate.
It wascreated by the not-for-profit Resilient Building Council, with funding from the federal government, in response tothe Black Summer bushfires.
The council's chief executive, Kate Cotter, said after the fires, people were coming to them wanting to know how they could better prepare if they were faced with a similar fate.
"We're hoping we can make a differenceby helping people understand what makes their home vulnerable, and how they can change that," she said.
"Because every home is different and every location is different."
Ms Cottersaid, if possible, the councilwanted to avoid the widespread destruction experienced by many communities during the summer of 2019/20.
What is a 'resilient' house?
A resilient house is one that can defend itself against extreme weather and disasters, so its occupants havesomething liveable to return to shortly after an event.
Kalbarri in Western Australiaafter Tropical Cyclone Seroja in 2021, and Lismore in NSW following the 2022 flooding, are examples of the lasting tolldisasters can have.
Years on, residents inboth locations are still rebuilding, faced with labour and material shortages.
"There are lots of costs and consequencesthat are hard to imagine unless you go through it yourself, so we're trying to help avoid ever being in that situation," Ms Cotter said.
'Changing the story'of a burnt community
For people in the community of Shoalhaven, on the south coast of New South Wales, the consequences of fire arestill fresh.
Many residents inthe community have been involvedin trialling the newbushfire rating.
Theyincludevolunteer firefighters Ian and Annette Stevens, who spent every day of December 2019 fighting fires through the district, except the day they had to defend their own home.
"We were in town andwe saw the horrible black sky tinged with orange and we knew it did not look good," Mr Stevens said.
"The Currowan fire, it slammed through our community.
"At our place, we had a 50-metre-high wall of flames that went all the way around the house."
More than 300 homes in the small coastal town were destroyed that summerand 173 were damaged.
After spending three hours defending their home, "guiding" the fire around the sides of the property, the Stevens's home was one of 1,889 that were saved.
"We were exhausted and relieved, but also feeling some survivor's guilt, knowing that not everybody had the same outcome," Mr Stevens said.
Since that day, the couple hasbeen working to make sure their house is ready, should it happen again.
Mr Steven said using the rating, he had been able to identify several shortcomingsin his home's design that made it vulnerable to bushfires, some of which surprised him.
"I thought ourtin roof was fine. It was all Colorbond, with no issues at all," he said.
"But actually, where the ridge capping goes along, embers could enterand it needed a type of steel wool mesh to go in there to stop the embers from entering in the gulliesof the corrugated iron."
Mr Stevens said they spent $20,000 upgrading their homebased on the recommendations, but they now felt better prepared for what the future may hold.
Others in the regionwho weren't so luckyhave gone even further, attempting to make their homes virtually fire-proof.
Lake Conjola resident Greg Webb and his wifeAlexandralost their home as the bush surrounding it"lit up into a fireball".
"Every tree was alive," Mr Webb said.
"I raced into the carport,and over the next seven to 10 minutes the fireball incinerated everything. It was unbelievable."
He is now rebuilding his house to what is considered the "top standard" of resilience.
"There is nothing combustible on the inner or outer layer of the house," he said.
The houseincludesan aerated concrete floor, fire wrap within the walls, and a tank room under the house for water storage.
Mr Webb is also adding window shutters to every window, door and glass panel in the build, as was required by the bushfire building codes for his property.
The measures havecome with a high price tag.
Mr Webb estimates he has spent $130,000 making sure his house is fireproof, on top of the already stringentbushfire building standards required for his house.
After his experience in 2019, and the support the broader community gave him, Mr Webbbelieves it is something he has a responsibility to do.
"I've got to be accountable for what I'm building, and the responsibility back to myself, my family and the community," he said.
"To watch my house get scraped upand go to landfillwas incredibly emotional.
"I only wish that I had made my house more resilient for far less money than what I've got to spend now."
Insuranceincentives
The Resilient Building Council has been hoping the rating will provide a framework for insurance companies to reward individual actionby reducing premiums.
A lack of a system "to assess and record the level of resilience" in a house had previously been flagged by the Insurance Council of Australia (ICA)as a barrier for insurers to adjust premiums accordingly.
Asked whether this rating system would change that, ICA chief executive Andrew Hallsaid some companies would take individual resilience measuresinto consideration.
But he said itwas unlikely to lead to premiumadjustments across the board.
"Wherever risk can be reduced at the community or household level, this will bring down pressure on increasing premiums in those areas," he said.
"Insurance works as a pool, and sometimes if we are rewarding only those that do the resilience work, then those that live in risky areas are going to be doing more and more and it could come to a point where people can't afford insurance at all.
"It is an interesting debate we need to have as a community – do you price at an individual house level, or do you price at a community level?"
Mr Hallsaidunless the overall risk was reduced,insurance companies were at risk of leaving the home and contents market.
"At the moment, particularly in the last four or fiveyears, insurers are paying out more than they are collecting in premiums for home and contents and that is driven by extreme weather events and natural disasters," he said.
"We don't want to be like California where all the major insurance companies are now removing themselves from the home and contents market, simply because of the fire and flood risk. That would be disastrous."
The ICAis supporting theResilient Building Council in the next phase of the app, which will includecyclones, floods,heatwaves,storms and energy efficiency.
All about choice
Ms Cottersaid making a house resilient did not always require the same level of spending as residents in the Shoalhaven community were implementing, with low-cost measures also able to make a "substantial difference" to the overall strength of a home in the face of a bushfire.
But, ultimately, she said it was about providing people with all the options and information they needed, so they could make that choice.
It is a sentiment that rings true for Ms Vas, in Matcham, who ran her own house through the toolafter speaking with the ABC.
She said it had given her more to think about in the context of her own property and how it would fare in a bushfire.
"I think the greatest value of this rating is to gethome owners and tenants thinking," she said.
"Even if it is to make us realise how vulnerable we really are."
Credits
Reporting and production:Tyne Logan
Charts: Mark Doman
Photographs: Billy Cooper,John Gunn
Posted, updated
