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Credit Research & Insights
Our credit market research encompasses ratings performance indicators (including upgrades and downgrades, defaults, outlook changes, weakest links, rising stars, and fallen angels) alongside default and issuance forecasts and financing conditions coverage.
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- Trending" data-gtm-action="Click" data-gtm-label="ESG In Credit Ratings February 2024: A Slow Start" target="_self"> ESG In Credit RatingsFebruary 15, 2024ESG In Credit Ratings February 2024: A Slow Start
- Trending" data-gtm-action="Click" data-gtm-label="Highest January For Corporate Defaults Since 2010" target="_self"> Default, Transition, and RecoveryFebruary 13, 2024Highest January For Corporate Defaults Since 2010
- Trending" data-gtm-action="Click" data-gtm-label="Risky Credits: Debt Levels Rose 33% In North America In 2023 As Maturities Loom" target="_self"> Credit TrendsFebruary 7, 2024Risky Credits: Debt Levels Rose 33% In North America In 2023 As Maturities Loom
- Trending" data-gtm-action="Click" data-gtm-label="Risky Credits: Europe Continues To Walk A Fine Line" target="_self"> Credit TrendsFebruary 7, 2024Risky Credits: Europe Continues To Walk A Fine Line
- Credit TrendsFebruary 7, 2024Risky Credits: Silver Lining For Emerging Markets
- Credit TrendsFebruary 5, 2024Global Refinancing: Maturity Wall Looms Higher For Speculative-Grade Debt
- Credit TrendsJanuary 30, 2024Investment-Grade Credit Check: Walking The Walk
- Credit TrendsJanuary 25, 2024Global Credit Markets Update Q1 2024: Competing Forces
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U.S. Recovery Study: Loan Recoveries Persist Below Their Trend
While higher interest rates and difficult financing conditions continue to test valuations, recovery trends in the U.S. for bonds and loans have diverged. While loan recovery values have recently fallen alongside rising interest rates, the connection between recovery and interest rates historically has been more mixed, as rising rates often coincide with periods of economic growth. Through this past September, average discounted loan recoveries for 2022-2023 were down to 61.5%, nearly 12 percentage points below their long-term average. This may reflect the weakening of loan structures in previous years. During the same period, bonds averaged a 68% recovery, more than 25 percentage points above their long-term average, with most of them emerging from default following a distressed exchange or nonbankruptcy restructuring.
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Credit Research & Insights
We deliver forward-looking, actionable insights on market-moving trends and their effects on credit—leveraging our proprietary data, analytical expertise, and cross-discipline approach. Our research includes ratings analyses, risk assessments, and credit market forecasts.
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This Week In Credit
Busy On Three Fronts (March 4, 2024)
There's a lot going on this week--monetary policy meetings, economic data, and political events. The markets expect the ECB to keep rates steady when it meets on Thursday. The Bank of Canada also meets (Wednesday). Economic data will be led by U.S. payrolls on Friday, but German manufacturing orders for January (Thursday) will be scrutinized for clues as to the relative health of Europe’s largest economy. The revised European fourth-quarter 2023 GDP data and payrolls (Friday) will also be a focus. On the political front, the U.S. has a raft of election primaries on Super Tuesday and the State of the Union (Thursday). China’s National People’s Congress meeting is also on this week and will be watched for key economic policy directions as well as the growth target for the year.
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This Month In Credit
Rising Market Tides Aren't Lifting All Boats
Speculative-grade issuers are broadly benefiting from rebounding issuance and tightening credit spreads, but some weaker credits continue to struggle.
The number of weakest links declined in January, resulting more from credit deterioration (defaults) than meaningful credit improvement.
Leverage pressures may be receding--lower leverage was a factor in nearly twice as many new potential upgrades in January than in December.
Higher-rated rating trends continue to be more favorable, with three rising stars newly upgraded to investment-grade from speculative-grade, including NASCAR Holdings LLC, while there were no fallen angels or new potential fallen angels.
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Go Deeper Into Weekly & Monthly Credit Trends
Make decisions with conviction with a short- and longer-term perspective on current ratings trends. This Week In Credit is a data-driven research snapshot that delivers forward-looking, actionable insights on market-moving credit trends every Monday. On a monthly basis, This Month In Credit provides a comprehensive overview of weakest links, distressed debt, rising stars, and fallen angels, among other credit indicators.
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Market Pricing
Confronting Credit Headwinds
In the near term, we expect credit pressures to intensify—with a world order that's increasingly fragmented and fragile.
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Default & Issuance Forecasts
Default & Transition Studies
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Ratings Performance
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What We're Watching
S&P Global Ratings expects additional credit deterioration in 2024, largely at the lower end of the ratings scale. An environment of increasingly rapid change requires financial market participants to adapt their playbooks.
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- Mar 07, 2024 Americas,Latin America,APAC,EMEA
- Mar 04, 2024 Americas,Latin America,APAC,EMEA
- COMMENTS Feb 29, 2024 Americas,Latin America,APAC,EMEA
- COMMENTS Feb 29, 2024
- Feb 29, 2024 Americas,Latin America,APAC,EMEA
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Credit Conditions
Our regional and global Credit Conditions Committees—and the research publications we produce—provide financial market participants around the world with an essential resource for identifying and understanding prevailing and potential credit risks.
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