China’s US$3 trillion dollar debt ‘could trigger a financial crisis’ (2024)

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China’s US$3 trillion dollar debt ‘could trigger a financial crisis’? ›

Massive domestic debt has long been a headache for Beijing, but it is China's growing external US dollar leverage that is being underestimated and it could possibly trigger a major financial crisis, according to Kevin Lai, chief economist for Asia excluding Japan at Japanese investment bank and securities brokerage ...

Since the U.S. dollar has a variable exchange rate, however, any sale by any nation holding huge U.S. debt or dollar reserves will trigger the adjustment of the trade balance at the international level. The offloaded U.S. reserves by China will either end up with another nation or will return back to the U.S.

China's debt overhang far exceeds the burdens facing the United States. As recently as 2020, total debt in the United States relative to GDP exceeded China's. But as of mid-2022, China's relative debt burden stood 40 percent higher than America's.

The United States pays interest on approximately $850 billion in debt held by the People's Republic of China. China, however, is currently in default on its sovereign debt held by American bondholders.

China is in the midst of a profound economic crisis. Growth rates are flagging as an unsustainable mountain of debt piles up; China's debt-to-GDP ratio reached a record 288% in 2023.

China owns 384,000 acres of American agricultural land. That's a 30% increase just since 2019. And on top of that, they own land near an air force base in North Dakota.

At the end of September 2023, domestic creditors held 77 percent of the outstanding debt held by the public. Foreign creditors held the remaining 23 percent.

The United States supported China's entrance into the World Trade Organization at the turn of the millennium, which led to an export boom of Chinese goods into the U.S. China ended up parking much of its sales in U.S. Treasurys, CNN reported, because of their perceived safety as an investment.

Japan has the highest percentage of national debt in the world at 259.43% of its annual GDP.

Though China owns a large amount of U.S. debt, it isn't the United States's largest creditor. The greatest amount of U.S. debt is owned by the U.S. government, while the largest foreign creditor is Japan. China owns around 2.6% of U.S. debt, which it buys because the Chinese yuan is pegged to the dollar.

What country owns most of the United States? ›

Among other countries, Japan and China have continued to be the top owners of US debt during the last two decades. Since the dollar is a strong currency that is accepted globally, holding a substantial amount of US debt can be beneficial.

London's Centre for Economics and Business Research calculated that China would indeed become the world's largest economy for 21 years, before the US reclaims the lead in 2057, itself to be overtaken by India around 2081.

The counterintelligence and economic espionage efforts emanating from the government of China and the Chinese Communist Party are a grave threat to the economic well-being and democratic values of the United States. Confronting this threat is the FBI's top counterintelligence priority.

China's Economy Falls Further Behind US

But it also reflects a more vibrant state of economic activity. Consumer spending continues to contribute the bulk of growth, while private-sector investment and trade also contributed, along with government spending.

Selling Treasurys is a fast way to whip up U.S. dollars, and China will sometimes use extra dollars to go out on the global market and buy up their own currency. That artificially pumps up its value. It's like planting someone at an auction to drive up your prices.

The latest figures show China held $782 billion of Treasuries in November - a large amount, but also around its smallest in 15 years and down significantly from the peaks of $1.3 trillion in 2011 and 2013. More importantly, China's footprint in the U.S. bond market is a fraction of what it once was.

The largest holder of U.S. debt is the U.S government. Which agencies own the most Treasury notes, bills, and bonds? Social Security, by a long shot. The U.S. Treasury publishes this information in its monthly Treasury statement.

The costs to the U.S. economy if we were to prohibit domestic companies (impacting companies such as GE, Honeywell, Collins, and Parker Aerospace) from engaging with COMAC would be significant: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce estimates that losing access to China's aviation market would translate into a loss of $38 ...