Build The Ultimate, 6.6%-Yielding, Sleep-Well-At-Night Retirement Portfolio With These 17 Blue-Chips (2024)

(Source: Imgflip)

Back in July, when the stock market was roaring higher to ever more absurd valuations, I wrote this article to highlight the safest way for retirees to maximize long-term income.

  • How To Build A 6% Yielding Sleep Well At Night Retirement Portfolio With These 15 Blue-Chips

Not surprisingly, in recent weeks, the market pullback that all prudent long-term investors knew was coming at some point has arrived.

This means that there are even better opportunities for conservative income investors seeking maximum safe yield today.

So let me show you how to construct a safe dividend growth portfolio for maximizing both current income, but that will also let you sleep well at night no matter what the economy, pandemic, or stock market does.

Finding The Safest Ultra-High-Yield On Wall Street

You can watch the video for an in-depth explanation of how I arrived at these 17 ultra-high-yield blue-chips.

For those without the time or interest, here is a quick summary.

The Dividend Kings Master List has 470 companies on it, including:

  • All Dividend Champions (companies with 25+ year dividend growth streaks)
  • All Dividend Aristocrats (S&P companies with 25+ year dividend growth streaks)
  • All Dividend Kings (companies with 50+ year dividend growth streaks)
  • All 11/11 quality Super SWANs (5/5 safety + 3/3 wide-moat businesses + 3/3 excellent management quality/dividend cultures, basically as close to a perfect company as exists on Wall Street)

I begin every screen by selecting only those companies that are fair value or better (color-coded blue or green).

  • 78 potentially reasonable buys (color-coded blue)
  • 96 potentially good buys or better
  • 37% of the Master List is potentially worth buying

Next, I focus on quality, specifically selecting only 8+/11 above-average quality or better companies.

(Source: Imgflip)

  • 8/11 above-average quality companies: 46
  • 9/11 quality blue-chips: 60
  • 10/11 quality SWANs: 30
  • 11/11 quality Super SWANs: 11

Next, I focus on dividend safety, based on a five-point safety score that's based on 18 fundamental metrics and calibrated based on historical S&P 500 dividend cuts during recessions.

(Sources: Moon Capital Management, NBER, Multipl.com)

I use the S&P 500 as the proxy for average dividend safety in average recessions (1.4% average annual GDP Decline according to the National Bureau of Economic Research).

I then use the blue-chip economist consensus range, made up of the 16 most accurate economists out of 45 tracked by MarketWatch, to scale the risk of a dividend cut for every individual economic downturn.

Safety Score Out of 5 Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession) Approximate Dividend Cut Risk This Recession
1 (unsafe) over 4% 16+%
2 (below average) over 2% 8% to 15%
3 (average) 2% 4% to 8%
4 (above-average) 1% 2% to 4%
5 (very safe) 0.5% 1% to 2%

4+/5 dividend safety scores equate to a 4% or less risk of a dividend cut in this pandemic.

  • 4/5 above-average safety: 68 companies
  • 5/5 very safe dividends: 70 companies
  • 138 safe dividend stocks trading at fair value or better

Next, I consider credit ratings, which are highly correlated to long-term bankruptcy risk, because they are based on over 100 years of default data.

Credit Rating 30-Year Bankruptcy Probability
AAA 0.07%
AA+ 0.29%
AA 0.51%
AA- 0.55%
A+ 0.60%
A 0.66%
A- 2.5%
BBB+ 5%
BBB 7.5%
BBB- 11%
BB+ 14%
BB 17%
BB- 21%
B+ 25%
B 37%
B- 45%
CCC+ 52%
CCC 59%
CCC- 65%
CC 70%
C 80%
D 100%

(Sources: Dividend Kings Investment Decision Tool, S&P, University of St. Petersburg)

When a company defaults on its debt, it almost always goes bankrupt wiping out common equity investors.

In other words, bankruptcy risk is the ultimate proxy for fundamental risk.

Fundamental risk is Warren Buffett's definition of true risk, specifically a permanent loss of capital.

  • One BB+ rated company is eliminated due to 14% long-term bankruptcy risk
  • Two BB rated companies are eliminated due to 17% long-term bankruptcy risk
  • Two BB- rated companies are eliminated due to 21% long-term bankruptcy risk
  • 133 investment-grade companies remain

Finally, I screen out any company that doesn't have at least a 12+ year dividend growth streak. Why 12 years? Two reasons.

First, any such company has been raising its dividend every year since at least 2008, meaning it continued paying rising dividends during the Financial Crisis.

Second, during this pandemic, my fellow Dividend King Justin Law, who runs the late David Fish's CCC list (all US-listed companies with 5+ year dividend growth streaks) reports that 12 years is the safety line for this pandemic.

(Source: Justin Law)

Of the 105 CCC list companies that have cut their dividends in this pandemic, 84% of them had dividend streaks of 11 years or less.

  • 57 companies remain

I then take this list of 57 quality investment-grade companies, all of them reasonably or attractively valued, and sort them by highest to lowest yield.

The Highest Safe Yield On Wall Street

(Source: Dividend Kings Company Screening Tool) blue = potentially reasonable buy, green = potentially good buy or better.

Now that we have a list of safe high-yield and ultra-high yielding stocks, it's time to get to work building the portfolio.

How To Construct A Sleep-Well-At-Night (SWAN) Retirement Portfolio For Maximum Safe Yield

In order to construct a diversified and prudently risk-managed portfolio, I rely on guidelines I've created with feedback from colleagues with over 100 collective years of asset management experience.

So here is the safest high-yielding portfolio you can construct in this still overvalued market (S&P 500 is 38% historically overvalued).

Company Ticker Sector Weighting Yield Consensus Long-Term Growth Rate Discount To Fair Value 5-Year Consensus Return Potential Risk-Adjusted Expected Return
Magellan Midstream Partners (Uses K1 tax form) (MMP) Energy 7% 11.1% 4.0% 52% 20.4% 14.5%
Enterprise Products Partners (Uses K1 tax form) (EPD) Energy 7% 10.7% 2.0% 53% 21.5% 15.3%
Altria (MO) Consumer Staples 7% 8.6% 6.1% 37% 20.0% 13.9%
Enbridge (ENB) Energy 1% 7.9% 5.5% 32% 14.2% 10.1%
(T) Communications 7% 7.2% 2.0% 21% 15.4% 10.7%
People's United Financial (PBCT) Finance 7% 6.8% 13.7% 38% 24.8% 17.7%
Prudential (PRU) Finance 7% 6.5% 8.3% 34% 20.5% 15.3%
Philip Morris International (PM) Consumer Staples 7% 6.1% 7.0% 14% 13.9% 10.4%
United Bankshares (UBSI) Finance 1% 5.9% 8.0% 35% 16.8% 12.0%
IBM (IBM) Technology 7% 5.3% 2.6% 18% 8.3% 6.2%
AbbVie (ABBV) Healthcare 7% 5.2% 5.8% 34% 16.4% 11.7%
Walgreens (WBA) Consumer Staples 6% 5.1% 2.1% 39% 15.1% 10.5%
Telus (TU) Communications 7% 4.9% 3.7% 4% 5.7% 4.1%
Duke Energy (DUK) Utilities 7% 4.7% 4.0% 2% 7.6% 5.6%
MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) Industrial 7% 3.7% 7.9% 28% 8.8% 9.8%
Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN) Utilities 7% 4.2% 3.6% 8% 9.1% 6.1%
(JW.A) Communications 1% 4.2% 4.0% 32% 5.1% 3.7%
Weighted Average 100% 6.6% 5.3% 28% 14.3% 10.4%

This portfolio has a yield of 6.6%, which means if it were an asset class, it would be the third highest-yielding asset class in the world.

More importantly, this portfolio has strong fundamentals, and thus its yield can be depended on by retirees across the economic cycle.

Fundamental Stats On This 6.6% Yielding Portfolio

  • Average quality score: 9.0/11 blue-chip quality vs. 9.6 average dividend aristocrat
  • Average dividend safety score: 4.2/5 above-average vs. 4.5 average dividend aristocrat (about 2.5% dividend cut risk in this recession)
  • Average FCF payout ratio: 70% vs. 67% industry safety guideline
  • Average debt/capital: 55% vs. 51% industry safety guideline vs. 37% S&P 500
  • Yield: 6.6% vs. 1.8% S&P 500 and 2.3% aristocrats
  • Average discount to fair value: 28% vs. 38% overvalued S&P 500
  • Average dividend growth streak: 29.4 years vs. 41.8 aristocrats, 20+ Graham Standard of Excellence
  • Average five-year dividend growth rate: 7.5% CAGR vs. 8.3% CAGR average aristocrat
  • Average long-term analyst growth consensus: 5.3% CAGR vs. 6.4% CAGR S&P 500
  • Average forward P/E: 10.8 vs 15.0 historical vs. 22.7 S&P 500
  • Average earnings yield (Chuck Carnevale's "essence of valuation"): 9.3% vs. 4.4% S&P 500
  • Average PEG ratio: 2.61 vs. 3.63 historical vs. 2.69 S&P 500
  • The average return on capital: 84% (68% Industry Percentile, above-average quality/narrow moat according to Joel Greenblatt)
  • Average 13-year median ROC: 124% (recession effects)
  • Average five-year ROC trend: +0% CAGR (stable moat/quality)
  • Average S&P credit rating: BBB+ vs. A- average aristocrat (5% 30-year bankruptcy risk)
  • Average annual volatility: 23.9% vs. 22.5% average aristocrat (and 26.9% average Master List company)
  • Average market cap: $678 billion mega-cap
  • Weighted five-year total return potential: 6.6% yield + 5.3% CAGR long-term growth +2.7% CAGR valuation boost = 14.6% CAGR (7% to 22% CAGR with an appropriate margin of error)
  • Weighted risk-adjusted expected return: 12.0% vs 3.6% S&P 500 (238% more than S&P 500)

These are high-quality companies with safe dividends as seen by their good balance sheets, above-average returns on capital, and a nearly three-decade dividend growth streak.

They not only generate a dependable 6.6% yield that is nearly quadruple that of the broader market, but are also expected to generate more than triple the returns of the S&P 500 in the next five years.

S&P 500 Valuation Profile

Year EPS Consensus YOY Growth Forward PE Blended PE Overvaluation (Forward PE) Overvaluation (Blended PE)
2020 $130.46 -19% 25.4 23.8 55% 40%
2021 $166.62 28% 19.9 22.7 21% 33%
2022 $189.64 14% 17.5 18.7 7% 10%
12-month forward EPS 12 Month Forward PE Historical Overvaluation PEG 20-Year Average PEG S&P 500 Dividend Yield 25-Year Average Dividend Yield
$146.42 22.7 38% 2.67 2.35 1.80% 2.06%

(Sources: Dividend Kings S&P 500 Valuation & Total Return Profile Tool, JPMorgan Asset Management, F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research, Brian Gilmartin, Reuters'/Refinitiv/IBES/Lipper Financial, Ed Yardeni, Multipl.com)

That's because the S&P 500 remains extremely richly priced, about 38% historically overvalued.

S&P 500 Total Return Profile

Year Upside Potential By End of That Year Consensus CAGR Return Potential By End of That Year

Probability-Weighted Return (OTC:CAGR)

2020 -32.7% -75.1% -56.3%
2021 -13.2% -10.4% -7.8%
2022 1.6% 0.7% 0.5%
2025 28.5% 4.9% 3.6%

(Source: Dividend Kings S&P 500 Valuation & Total Return Profile Tool)

Additional Fundamental 6.6% SWAN Portfolio Stats

Here are other fundamental stats about this portfolio compared to the Vanguard High-Yield ETF (VYM), a good benchmark that yields 3.5%.

(Source: JPMorgan Asset Management)

Earning nearly double the yield of a quality high-yield index fund is the primary goal of this portfolio.

(Source: JPMorgan Asset Management)

This portfolio is 87% US stocks and 13% foreign stocks, far more international diversification than VYM.

(Source: JPMorgan Asset Management)

All of the international exposure is from our Canadian companies, ENB, and TU, because North American companies tend to be more consistent dividend payers, and avoiding dividend cuts is one of our primary goals.

(Source: JPMorgan Asset Management)

This portfolio has a deep value tilt, which is what you'd expect from a portfolio 100% built around maximizing safe high yield. It has more exposure to small-cap value, which has performed poorly this year due to the pandemic and is thus offering some very attractive safe high yields.

(Source: JPMorgan Asset Management)

This portfolio is maxed out at 20% exposure to finance and energy, two cyclical sectors that are expected to see very strong fundamentals growth next year when the economy is expected to grow by nearly 5%.

Remember that we care primarily about safe income and the FactSet analyst consensus for all these blue-chips is that they will maintain or grow their dividends through this pandemic.

(Source: Imgflip)

Buying the safest high-yielding companies naturally means buying deeply undervalued companies whose strong and growing fundamentals make it very likely they will eventually see extremely strong multiple expansion and superior returns (which we'll get to in a moment).

Investment Decision Score For This 6.6% SWAN Portfolio

I never recommend a company, much less put my own money at risk without first knowing exactly how prudent a potential investment it is relative to the S&P 500, most people's default alternative.

The investment decision score is based on valuation and the three core principles of all successful long-term investors.

Build The Ultimate, 6.6%-Yielding, Sleep-Well-At-Night Retirement Portfolio With These 17 Blue-Chips (20)

Goal 6.6% Yielding SWAN Portfolio Why Score
Valuation Potentially Strong Buy 28% undervalued 4/4
Preservation Of Capital Above-Average Weighted BBB+ stable outlook credit rating = 5% 30-year bankruptcy risk 6/7
Return Of Capital Exceptional 37.9% of capital returned over the next 5 year via dividends vs 10.6% S&P 500 10/10
Return On Capital Exceptional 12.0% RAER vs 3.5% S&P 500 10.00
Relative Investment Score 97%
Letter Grade A Excellent
S&P 73% = C (market-average)

(Source: Dividend Kings Investment Decision Tool)

Compared to the lower-yielding and 38% overvalued S&P 500, this portfolio is one of the most reasonable and prudent collections of quality income producers you can buy today.

Historical Returns: The Ultimate Proof Of Quality

(Source: Imgflip)

As Ben Graham said, the market almost always weighs the substance of a company correctly over the long term.

Thus how a company or portfolio performs over STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT periods of time, 10+ years, can confirm the quality of those companies or portfolios.

Now obviously these 17 high-yield blue-chips haven't done well in recent years. After all:

  • They are almost all in bear markets right now,
  • which is why they are 28% undervalued, and
  • why we've selected them for a portfolio targeting the highest safe yield.

(Source: JPMorgan Asset Management)

Not surprisingly since most of these 17 high-yield blue-chips are trading at their lowest valuations in a decade (or more), they have underperformed VYM for many years.

In fact, over the past decade, they've underperformed VYM 8.2% to 12.1%, which might cause some investors to assume the market is saying these companies are low-quality value traps.

  • Value trap = company with fundamentally deteriorating results that analysts expect to grow at negative rates over time (inherently unsafe dividends)

These are not value/yield traps as seen by their strong fundamentals and above-average safety and blue-chip quality.

Remember that 9% to 10% of total returns are always a function of luck; in this case the bad luck of many of these companies' 10-year returns being bookended by two bear markets.

What if we look beyond just 10 years, and instead at their returns over the last 18 years when 91% of returns are a function of fundamentals?

6.6% Yield SWAN Portfolio Since 2002 (Annual Rebalancing)

(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)

Over the past 18 years, despite the horrible bear market they are in these 17 high-yield blue-chips actually beat the S&P 500 by 5% annually, and with 9% lower volatility to boot.

In terms of excess total returns (vs 10-year Treasuries)/negative volatility (reward/risk ratio), they beat the market by 16%.

This Portfolio Has Beaten S&P 500 61% Of Years Since 2002

(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)

In 11 of the past 18 years, this portfolio beat the market, which isn't its benchmark but is a good quality proxy (since superior quality companies tend to outperform over time).

But there is a 9% probability that these objectively superior results, on an absolute and risk-adjusted basis, which clearly show these companies are superior to the S&P 500, might also be a result of luck.

So to confirm their quality as shown by total return data, let's consider historical rolling returns across all statistically significant time frames.

10- And 15-Year Rolling Returns: The Best Return Based Quality Indicator There Is

(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)

Over 10 and 15 years, 90% to 91% of results are fundamentals driven, and so by looking at a company's rolling returns vs. the S&P 500, we can gauge with 90% to 91% certainty a company's quality relative to the average company's.

Since 2002, this portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 in every time frame. That's true when you compare average returns, the lowest returns, and the highest (from bear market bottoms).

  • Best 10-year rolling return was 14.6% CAGR exactly the analyst consensus forecast for this portfolio today

Because most of these companies are trading at their best valuations in a decade (or ever in some cases), analysts expect them to deliver close to 15% CAGR total returns over the long term.

Our risk-adjusted expected return is just 12% CAGR, which factors in all the uncertainties surrounding market sentiment over time, the approximately 30% probability analysts are wrong about their growth rates, and even their long-term bankruptcy risk.

The point is that, despite years of poor stock returns, the fundamentals of these 6.6%-yielding blue-chips remain sound.

More importantly, with 5.3% CAGR-weighted, long-term growth consensus forecasts and a steep 28% historical discount, they are 90% likely to outperform the S&P 500 over the next decade, as well as VYM their actual and more appropriate benchmark.

Converting This SWAN Portfolio Into An Ultra-SWAN Portfolio

This 17 blue-chip portfolio is:

  • Diversified
  • Prudently risk-managed
  • High quality
  • Offers safe income that's almost 4X that of the S&P 500 and almost 2X high-yield funds
  • Is likely to deliver about 12% CAGR long-term total returns that will almost certainly smash the market's future returns from current valuations

However, it's still a 100% stock portfolio and that means that it, like any stock portfolio, is prone to periods of high volatility.

6.6%-Yielding SWAN Portfolio Peak Declines Since 2002

(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)

This portfolio has tended to fall less in market declines and recover record highs faster as well despite its lower long-term volatility.

But remember that SWAN does NOT mean "never falls a lot" but is a designation of fundamental quality and dividend safety.

This is where converting a SWAN portfolio of stocks into an Ultra SWAN retirement portfolio that combines prudent cash/bond allocation is crucial for most people.

Volatility caused by money managers who speculate irrationality with huge sums will offer the true investor more chance to make intelligent investment moves. He can be hurt by such volatility only if he is forced, by either financial or psychological pressures, to sell at untoward times." - Warren Buffett (emphasis added)

As Buffett says volatility is not risk...unless it turns you into a seller at a loss for financial or emotional reasons during a downturn.

SWAN and Ultra-SWAN portfolios are specifically designed to avoid extreme volatility that can cause you to sell in a panic.

They are also designed to own cash/bonds that provide stable or appreciating assets to sell without having to sell blue-chip companies at irrational bear market valuations.

Build The Ultimate, 6.6%-Yielding, Sleep-Well-At-Night Retirement Portfolio With These 17 Blue-Chips (30)Since 1945 bonds go up 92% of the time when stocks fall.

Cash is what we own for the 8% of times when stocks and bonds fall together.

  • Emergency fund (held outside your portfolio): what you tap for ultra-short-term unexpected expenses
  • Cash (1 to 2 years' worth of expenses not covered by SS + private pensions + dividends in retirement): what you sell in case both stocks and bonds are in falling
  • Investment-grade bonds: What you sell during long stock bear markets
  • Stocks: The best-performing asset class in history and the best source of generous and growing income over time

(Source: UBS)

This table can help you estimate a prudent and reasonable asset allocation based on your personal emotional risk tolerance.

In the following videos, I:

  • First, summarize the future risk profile of the 100% stock version of the 6.6% SWAN Portfolio,
  • then analyze the historical returns and future risk profile of the 75/25 version of Ultra SWAN portfolio, and
  • finally, analyze a more conservative 50/50 version of this Ultra SWAN portfolio.

6.6%-Yielding SWAN Portfolio Volatility & Future Risk Analysis

75/25 Ultra SWAN Portfolio Volatility & Future Risk Analysis

50/50 Ultra SWAN Portfolio Volatility & Future Risk Analysis

Deeper Look Videos: Two Of My Highest Conviction Recommendations From These 17 High-Yield Blue-Chips

Magellan Midstream Partners: The Safest 11% Yield On Wall Street

Deep Dive Article:

  • Magellan Midstream: A Bubble Beater That Yields 11%

Magellan Midstream Historical Market-Determined Fair Value

Metric Historical Fair Value (7 years) 2020 2021 2022
5-Year Average Yield 5.44% $76 $76 $77
Operating Cash Flow 13.0 $62 $66 $67
EBITDA 13.4 $79 $86 $88
EBIT (Pre-Tax Profit) 16.2 $75 $82 $83
Average $73 $77 $79
Current Price $36.92

Discount To Fair Value

49% 52% 53%
Upside To Fair Value 97% 110% 113%

Annualized Total Return Potential

1406% 80% 40%

(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)

Magellan is one of the most undervalued SWANs on Wall Street, trading at about half the value of this year's consensus fundamentals and a 52% margin of safety to next year's consensus forecasts.

The upside potential to fair value is stupendous as a result of this anti-bubble stock trading at its lowest valuation in 12 years, creating annualized total return potential to make grown men weep.

Magellan Midstream Growth Consensus

Metric 2020 consensus growth 2021 consensus growth

2022 consensus growth

Dividend 2% 0% 2%
Operating Cash Flow -18% 7% 1%
EBITDA 0% 9% 2%
EBIT (pre-tax profit) -5% 10% 2%

(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)

MMP is NOT a "value trap" or a "yield trap" as seen by the fact that its fundamentals are not expected to fall over time but rather grow at modest rates. That includes its mouth-watering, tax-deferred distribution.

MMP has a great track record of not just meeting analyst growth estimates but has outperformed in nine of the last 10 years.

Its margin of error adjusted analyst growth consensus range is 2% to 6% CAGR, with a 4.0% CAGR long-term analyst growth consensus.

(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)

That's slower than the 9% CAGR its grown during the midstream bear market of the last six years (distribution grew at 10% CAGR), but for an anti-bubble stock priced for negative growth, even 2% to 6% CAGR growth is enough to deliver sensational total returns and modestly growing income that far outpaces inflation.

MMP Fundamentals (Uses K-1 Tax Form)

  • Quality score: 10/11 SWAN
  • Dividend safety score: 4/5 above-average (4% to 6% dividend cut risk in this recession, 1% in a normal recession)
  • Max portfolio risk cap recommendation: 7% or less
  • Yield: 11.1%
  • Current price: $36.92
  • Potential good buy price: $70 or less
  • 2020 average historical fair value: $70 ($66 to $86 range, Morningstar estimate $55 based on 11.3 2021 EBITDA multiple, uncertainty "medium", I concur based on the fair value range)
  • Approximate discount to fair value: 52%
  • DK rating: Potentially ultra-value/anti-bubble buy
  • Historical fair value: 12 to 14 operating cash flow
  • Current blended P/OCF: 7.3
  • Cash Flow yield (Chuck's "essence of valuation"): 13.7% vs. 6.7% recommended
  • Growth priced into stock: About -0.6% CAGR according to Graham/Dodd fair value formula
  • Growth priced in according to historical PEG ratio: 0.4% CAGR
  • Long-term growth consensus: 4.0% CAGR
  • The margin of error adjusted analyst long-term consensus growth forecast: 2% to 6% CAGR
  • Five-year total return potential: 17% to 23% CAGR (analyst consensus 20.3% CAGR)
  • PEG ratio: 1.80 vs 18.77 historical vs 2.67 S&P 500 vs 2.35 historical S&P 500
  • Investment Decision Score: 97% = A excellent

Magellan Midstream Investment Decision Score

Goal MMP Why Score
Valuation Potentially Ultra-Value/anti-bubble buy 52% undervalued 4/4
Preservation Of Capital Above-Average Average BBB+ stable outlook credit rating = 5% 30-year bankruptcy risk 6/7
Return Of Capital Exceptional 61.5% of capital returned over the next 5 year via dividends vs 10.6% S&P 500 10/10
Return On Capital Exceptional 14.5% RAER vs 3.7% S&P 500 10/10
Relative Investment Score 97%
Letter Grade A excellent
S&P 73% = C (market-average

(Source: Dividend Kings Investment Decision Tool)

Magellan Midstream is one of the most reasonable and prudent high-yield SWAN investments conservative income investors can make today and represents the safest 11% yield on Wall Street.

These videos highlight why Magellan is one of the Dividend Kings' highest conviction recommendations and why we and my retirement portfolio, where I keep 100% of my life savings, have been buying it in small $250/$500 amounts each week and plan to for at least the next month if not longer.

Magellan Quality & Safety Analysis

Magellan Total Return Potential & Investment Decision Score

Magellan Historical Return, Volatility & Future Risk Analysis

Altria: The Most-Hated Dividend King Is 90% Likely To Rise From The Ashes Of This Recession And Soar To New Heights

Deep Dive Article:

  • Altria Represents One Of The Safest Ultra-High Yields You Can Find Today

Altria Historical Market-Determined Fair Value

Metric Historical Fair Value (all-years) 2020 2021 2022
13-Year Median Yield 4.97% $69 $71 $75
25-year average yield 5.25% $66 $67 $71
Earnings 14.4 $62 $66 $70
Operating Cash Flow 14.8 $67 $65 $67
EBITDA 8.7 $54 $56 $58
EBIT (Pre-Tax Profit) 9.1 $56 $58 $59
Average $62 $64 $67
Current Price $39.84

Discount To Fair Value

36% 38% 40%
Upside To Fair Value 56% 60% 67%

Annualized Total Return Potential

280% 46% 26%

(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research). Note MO's 2021 average fair value is $63 due to dividend hikes being announced in August

Based on the historical valuations that real investors have paid for MO's fundamentals I estimate it's worth about $62 for 2020 and $63 for 2021.

If the dividend hike next August is what analysts expect, then MO's intrinsic value will rise to about $64.

Altria Consensus Growth Estimates

Metric 2020 consensus growth 2021 consensus growth

2022 consensus growth

Dividend 2% (official) 4% 5%
EPS 2% 6% 5%
Operating Cash Flow 6% -3% 3%
EBITDA 8% 4% 3%
EBIT (pre-tax profit) 8% 4% 3%

(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs, FactSet Research)

Here is the proof that MO is NOT a "yield" or "value" trap. The 15 analysts that cover it on Wall Street, Morningstar, and all three rating agencies expect modest, long-term growth in the future.

That includes earnings growth of 6% and 5% in 2021 and 2022 and 4% and 5%, respective dividend hikes in those years.

Analysts are VERY accurate at forecasting this company's growth because management guidance is almost never wrong within reasonable margins of error.

The long-term growth consensus is 6.1% CAGR and the margin of error adjusted growth consensus range is 4% to 7% CAGR.

This is a very stable and predictable business model. MO has slightly beaten expectations for 11 consecutive years. And the last time it reported negative growth was in 2003, -2%.

"Value traps" do NOT have steadily growing earnings, cash flow and dividends. There is currently no objective evidence that MO is a low-quality "value" or "yield trap".

Altria Fundamentals

  • Quality score: 9/11 blue-chip dividend king
  • Dividend safety score: 4/5 above-average (4% to 6% dividend cut risk in this recession, 1% in a normal recession)
  • Max portfolio risk cap recommendation: 7% or less
  • Yield: 8.6% vs 5.0% 13-year median
  • Current price: $39.94
  • Potential good buy price: $54 or less
  • 2021 average historical fair value: $63 ($56 to $69 range, Morningstar estimate $54 based on 14 2020 PE uncertainty "medium", I concur based on the fair value range)
  • Approximate discount to fair value: 37%
  • DK rating: potentially very strong buy
  • Historical fair value: 14 to 15 PE
  • Current blended PE: 9.3
  • Earnings yield (Chuck's "essence of valuation"): 10.8% vs 6.7% recommended
  • Growth priced into stock: about 0.4% CAGR according to Graham/Dodd fair value formula
  • Growth priced in according to historical PEG ratio: 5.2% CAGR
  • Long-term growth consensus: 6.1% CAGR
  • The margin of error adjusted analyst long-term consensus growth forecast: 4% to 7% CAGR
  • Five-year total return potential: 18% to 22% CAGR (analyst consensus 20.0% CAGR)
  • PEG ratio: 1.43 vs 1.78 historical vs 2.67 S&P 500 vs 2.35 historical S&P 500
  • Investment Decision Score: 94% = A excellent

Altria Investment Decision Score

Goal MO Why Score
Valuation Potentially very Buy 37% undervalued 4.00
Preservation Of Capital Average BBB stable outlook credit rating = 7.5% 30-year bankruptcy risk 5.00
Return Of Capital Exceptional 50.4% of capital returned over the next 5 year via dividends vs 10.3% S&P 500 10.00
Return On Capital Exceptional 13.9% RAER vs 3.7% S&P 500 10.00
Relative Investment Score 94%
Letter Grade A Excellent
S&P 73% = C (market-average)

(Source: Dividend Kings Investment Decision Tool)

Altria is one of the most reasonable and prudent long-term high-yield blue-chips conservative income investors who are comfortable with the business model and risk profile can buy today.

Altria Quality & Safety Analysis

Altria Total Return Potential & Investment Decision Score

Altria Historical Return, Volatility & Future Risk Analysis

Bottom Line: Prudent, Long-Term Income Investors Can Construct A 6.6% SWAN Portfolio Even In This Overvalued Market

Build The Ultimate, 6.6%-Yielding, Sleep-Well-At-Night Retirement Portfolio With These 17 Blue-Chips (37) (Source: Imgflip)

No one can predict what the stock market or any individual company will do in the short term, because over 12-month periods, just 8% of returns are explained by fundamentals and valuations.

Fortunately, over the long term, 10+ years, 90% to 91% of returns are a function of fundamentals, not luck.

Build The Ultimate, 6.6%-Yielding, Sleep-Well-At-Night Retirement Portfolio With These 17 Blue-Chips (38)(Source: AZ quotes)

Just like in a casino, in the short term, anything can happen on Wall Street.

But also like a casino, over the long term, probability, statistics, and fundamentals ensure there can be only one outcome.

Prudent long-term investors never fear short-term market volatility; they understand that it's the cost of earning superior returns in stocks.

Great, long-term investors embrace short-term volatility and harness it to lock in incredible SAFE yields and the kind of long-term total returns that prosperous retirements are made from.

Today MMP, EPD, ENB, T, PBCT, PRU, PM, UBSI, IBM, ABBV, WBA, TU, DUK, MSM, NWN, and JW.A represent some of the highest-quality and safest ultra-yielder on Wall Street.

Together they can be combined into a blue-chip quality portfolio with a safe 6.6% yield that generates almost 4X the yield of the S&P 500 and nearly 2X the yield of high-yield mutual funds.

More importantly, even when owned within a prudently asset allocated Ultra SWAN retirement portfolio with appropriate cash/bond holdings, you can achieve a 4% to 5% safe yield that's 2X more than what a 75/25 and 50/50 balanced portfolio can offer.

And those Ultra SWAN portfolios offer exceptionally low historical and expected future volatility as well. In fact, the 50/50 Ultra-SWAN portfolio, according to JPMorgan's blue-chip economists, is expected to fall half as much as the S&P 500 during a future bear market, just 11%.

50/50 Ultra SWAN Portfolio Fundamentals

  • 4% safe yield today
  • About 2.7% CAGR long-term dividend growth that is expected to outpace inflation
  • Much lower historical and future expected volatility (50% less than S&P 500)
  • 6.5% CAGR risk-adjusted expected returns over the next five years (vs 2.5% CAGR for normal 50/50 portfolio)

THIS is the power of building a personal portfolio that is tailored to your specific needs and risk profile.

With the proper tools, such as the ones I've highlighted in this article and these 10 videos, in just a few hours, anyone can construct a 6.6%-yielding, SWAN portfolio and a 4% to 5% Ultra-SWAN retirement portfolio.

Portfolios that are 90% to 91% likely to smash their respective benchmarks, the cookie-cutter ETFs and mutual funds you can buy today, while delivering vastly superior income, and likely far lower volatility in future market downturns.

Long-term financial success isn't a function of luck. It requires only a sound strategy, a well-constructed portfolio, and the time and discipline to let your assets work hard for you, so one day you don't have to.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Build The Ultimate, 6.6%-Yielding, Sleep-Well-At-Night Retirement Portfolio With These 17 Blue-Chips (39)

Dividend Kings helps you determine the best safe dividend stocks to buy via our Valuation Tool, Research Terminal & Phoenix Watchlist.

Membership also includes

  • Access to our five model portfolios
  • Daily Blue-Chip Deal Videos
  • 50% discount to iREIT
  • 50 exclusive articles per month
  • Our weekly podcast
  • 20% discount to F.A.S.T Graphs
  • Real-time chatroom support
  • Exclusive daily updates to all my retirement portfolio trades
  • Our "Learn How To Invest Better" Library
  • Access to numerous valuable investing tools

Click here for a two-week free trial so we can help you achieve your financial goals while sleeping well at night in all market & economic conditions.

Build The Ultimate, 6.6%-Yielding, Sleep-Well-At-Night Retirement Portfolio With These 17 Blue-Chips (2024)
Top Articles
Latest Posts
Article information

Author: Frankie Dare

Last Updated:

Views: 6555

Rating: 4.2 / 5 (73 voted)

Reviews: 80% of readers found this page helpful

Author information

Name: Frankie Dare

Birthday: 2000-01-27

Address: Suite 313 45115 Caridad Freeway, Port Barabaraville, MS 66713

Phone: +3769542039359

Job: Sales Manager

Hobby: Baton twirling, Stand-up comedy, Leather crafting, Rugby, tabletop games, Jigsaw puzzles, Air sports

Introduction: My name is Frankie Dare, I am a funny, beautiful, proud, fair, pleasant, cheerful, enthusiastic person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.