Bonds look increasingly attractive as equities plummet and recession risks grow. Here's how to invest in fixed income to maximize returns, according to TD Securities' Head of Global Rates Strategy. (2024)

FAQs

Should you invest in bonds during a recession? ›

In a recession, investors often turn to bonds, particularly government bonds, as safer investments. The shift from stocks to bonds can increase bond prices, reduce portfolio volatility, and provide a predictable income. However, drawbacks include lower yield potential, default risks, and interest rate risks.

Bond prices move in inverse fashion to interest rates, reflecting an important bond investing consideration known as interest rate risk. If bond yields decline, the value of bonds already on the market move higher. If bond yields rise, existing bonds lose value.

While interest rate sensitivity may have pinched fixed income investors in 2021 and 2022 as inflation soared, fixed income is poised to earn healthy total returns this year. In general, prices rise as yields fall in fixed income.

Fixed-income provides stability and regular cash flow, while stock investments offer growth over time, albeit at the expense of volatility. So a good investor can design a portfolio with both elements to meet their short- and long-term needs.

Where to put money during a recession. Putting money in savings accounts, money market accounts, and CDs keeps your money safe in an FDIC-insured bank account (or NCUA-insured credit union account). Alternatively, invest in the stock market with a broker.

Don't: Take On High-Interest Debt

It's best to avoid racking up high-interest debt during a recession. In fact, the smart move is to slash high-interest debt so you've got more cash on hand. Chances are your highest-interest debt is credit card debt.

Vanguard's active fixed income team believes emerging markets (EM) bonds could outperform much of the rest of the fixed income market in 2024 because of the likelihood of declining global interest rates, the current yield premium over U.S. investment-grade bonds, and a longer duration profile than U.S. high yield.

What to consider now. We suggest investors consider high-quality, intermediate- or long-term bond investments rather than sitting in cash or other short-term bond investments. With the Fed likely to cut rates soon, we don't want investors caught off guard when the yields on short-term investments likely decline as well ...

How do you survive on fixed income? ›

Reducing your cost of living can be one of the most strategic money moves when you're on a fixed income. This might look like staying in your area but moving to a home with a lower cost to maintain, like trading in the big house with high utility bills or property taxes for a more affordable, lower-maintenance home.

What does living on a fixed income mean, exactly? Living on a fixed income generally applies to older adults who are no longer working and collecting a regular paycheck. Instead, they depend mostly or entirely on fixed payments from sources such as Social Security, pensions, and/or retirement savings.

Interest rates tend to begin to decline three months ahead of recessions and reach a cycle low about five months into recessions. During economic downturns, fixed income has been shown to provide diversification benefits and reduce the volatility of portfolios that include risk assets such as equities.

The U.S. stock market is considered to offer the highest investment returns over time. Higher returns, however, come with higher risk. Stock prices typically are more volatile than bond prices. Stock prices over shorter time periods are more volatile than stock prices over longer time periods.

Healthy large cap stocks also tend to hold up relatively well during downturns. Investing in broad funds can help reduce recession risk through diversification. Bonds and dividend stocks can provide income to cushion investors against downturns.

What's happening: The Fed bought a ton of government-backed bonds between 2020 and 2022 to help support economic recovery after the pandemic-induced recession. Those purchases ended up pushing down interest rates in certain parts of the economy, like housing and auto sales.

High-quality bond investments remain attractive. With yields on investment-grade-rated¹ bonds still near 15-year highs,² we believe investors should continue to consider intermediate- and longer-term bonds to lock in those high yields.

When the crisis hit, junk bond yield prices fell and thus their yields skyrocketed. The yield-to-maturity (YTM) for high-yield or speculative-grade bonds rose by over 20% during this time with the results being the all-time high for junk bond defaults, with the average market rate going as high as 13.4% by Q3 of 2009.