Even we were concerned with Bitcoin briefly traded below $6k in late June. Yet, the recent upside price move was incredibly quick and the price of Bitcoin ran right up to our upper price channel. We believe this will become a new price peak over the next few days/weeks where the price of Bitcoin should continue to drop from these levels near $7500. We know there are many Bitcoin investors that want to hear us state that it should continue to push higher, but there are other factors at play here that may limit this movement.
The price channels that are currently constraining the price of Bitcoin originate back in February and March of 2018. The low and high price rotation within these months start the points of interest for our research team. From these points, we have continued to identify key price levels that appear to contain breakouts.
You can see from the chart below, the upper BLUE channel line is our downward sloping price channel that is acting like an upper ceiling for the price. Additionally, you can see our “drawn Red and Green arrows” showing what we believed Bitcoin would potentially do over the next few months. We believed that Bitcoin, as it traded lower, towards $6k, may find support and rally (based on our time/price cycles) towards a peak near July 16 (showing as the end of the Green Arrow). From this point, we believe the price of Bitcoin will trail off, heading lower, with the intent to retest channel support near $5700 if the price cannot break through and hold above the blue upper channel.
This longer term daily Bitcoin chart shows a larger picture of our analysis work. You can clearly see the channels that are constraining price at the moment – the BLUE support channel and the RED resistance channel. The most recent lows established a new lower price point for the Blue channel – which indicated a downward sloping pennant formation is in place.
There are two things we want to caution Bitcoin investors and traders about. First, the rotation that we are expecting to complete this pennant formation could happen very quickly within a fairly tight range ($7400 to $5700). For traders, this is an excellent range for some quick profits. For investors, this could create some stress as price rotates.
Second, by our estimates, at least one more low price rotation is required before any real breakout will be attempted. If our analysis is correct, this current price peak will end with prices falling back below $6k, forming another “lower bottom” and rallying again to near the upper price channel (near $6700 or so) before trailing off for the last time – nearing the apex of the pennant formation. We believe the current outcome of this price setup will be a low price breakout, forming a potential wave 5 that should end near or below $5500. After that bottom is reached, we should be looking for a new bottom formation setting up a new advancement leg higher.
Could our analysis change, of course, it could depending on what price action shows us. Right now, this pennant formation and the wave counts are driving our analysis. The Time/price cycle analysis helps us to determine when and where price target/peaks/troughs may happen, but they are not set in stone. If you are a trader and are long Bitcoin, this may be the highest price you will see over the next few months.
If you are an investor and think this is the start of a bigger move higher – we don’t agree with you. We believe we are very close to the final leg lower that should form the new price bottom – at least for a while. Once this bottom forms, we’ll be able to provide a better understanding of what we believe will happen in the future. For right now, our target low for the bottom is $4400 on or near August 20, 2018. We’ll see how it plays out.
We keep a close eye using our proprietary ADL Fibonacci and ADL Cycle forecasting systems using the Bitcoin investment trust which trades like a stock/ETF, the symbol is: GBTC.
If you want to learn how we can help you stay ahead of these global market moves and help you plan for and execute greater trades, please visit The Technical Traders site to learn how we assist you. We offer comprehensive research, analysis, daily video, trading signals and much more to our valued subscribers. We also offer access to our specialized proprietary price modeling systems that have proven to be timely and accurate.
FAQs
Bitcoin halvings and cycle highs
| Halving date | Cycle max price |
|---|
| Cycle 1 | 2012 Nov 28 | $1,1632013 Nov 29 |
| Cycle 2 | 2016 Jul 9 | $19,3332017 Dec 15 |
| Cycle 3 | 2020 May 11 | $68,982.202021 Nov 10 |
Apr 19, 2024
You can invest in Bitcoin directly by using one of the major cryptocurrency exchanges, such as Coinbase or Binance. Another way to gain investment exposure to Bitcoin is to buy shares in a company with significant Bitcoin exposure, such as a Bitcoin mining company.
How does bitcoin work? ›
Bitcoin is a form of digital currency that uses blockchain technology to support transactions between users on a decentralized network. New Bitcoins are created as part of the mining process, as a reward to people whose computer systems help validate transactions. Buying Bitcoin exposes you to a volatile asset class.
Is bitcoin a good investment? ›
Bitcoin is a risky investment with high volatility, and generally should be considered only if you have a high risk tolerance, are in a strong financial position already and can afford to lose some or all of your investment.
How much will Bitcoin go up after halving? ›
The past three halvings – in 2020, 2016 and 2012 – have resulted in an average price increase of 16% over the 60 days that followed, according to data from the asset research firm 10x Research. The 2016 halving resulted in a decrease of 6% over the following 60 days, although it then rallied strongly throughout 2017.
Is it worth buying Bitcoin before halving? ›
This halving, scheduled to occur on or about April 20, will reduce Bitcoin's supply growth to roughly 0.8% a year. The effect of halvings has historically been dramatic, and this one is shaping up to be just like the past. Here's why Bitcoin is still worth buying before April 20.
How much will I get if I put $1 dollar in Bitcoin? ›
1 USD equals 0.000016 BTC. The current value of 1 United States Dollar is -0.63% against the exchange rate to BTC in the last 24 hours. The current Bitcoin market cap is $1.25T. Create a free Kraken account to instantly convert USD to BTC today.
How much to invest in Bitcoin to become a millionaire? ›
While this is a lower-bound scenario, we can use it as a baseline to show what it takes for investors to become Bitcoin millionaires. Assuming an annualized return of 30%, one would need to invest roughly $85,500 annually for five years to hit millionaire status. Over 10 years, this number falls to around $18,250.
What is the next Bitcoin like investment? ›
Established titans like Bitcoin and Ether are going to be portfolio mainstays. But rising stars like Solana and Injective are also vying for a piece of the digital future. Prepare yourself, as 2024 promises to be a profitable year for crypto investors. We take a look at the top coins and tokens to invest in 2024 below.
How many people own 1 Bitcoin? ›
However, some estimates can be made based on blockchain data and surveys of Bitcoin holders. According to data from Bitinfocharts, as of March 2023, there are approximately 827,000 addresses that hold 1 bitcoin or more, representing around 4.5% of all addresses on the Bitcoin network.
One of the easiest ways to cash out your cryptocurrency or Bitcoin is to use a centralized exchange such as Coinbase. Coinbase has an easy-to-use “buy/sell” button and you can choose which cryptocurrency you want to sell and the amount.
Who owns the most Bitcoin? ›
Who owns the most Bitcoin in the world? The top Bitcoin holder is still believed to be Satoshi Nakamoto, the anonymous creator of Bitcoin, who reportedly holds around 1.1 million BTC across many wallets. Despite this large holding, the top 10 holders collectively only possess about 5.5% of the total Bitcoin supply.
How much will $1 Bitcoin be worth in 2025? ›
Bitcoin Overview
| Year | Minimum Price | Average Price |
|---|
| 2024 | $84,475.55 | $87,676.23 |
| 2025 | $121,440.85 | $124,947.50 |
| 2026 | $166,264.37 | $171,262.87 |
| 2027 | $251,829.81 | $258,680.13 |
8 more rowsIf Wood is correct and Bitcoin does reach $3.8 million by 2030, an investment of $1,000 would be worth over $60,000. This would result in a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 100%. Read Next: Bitcoin has jumped another 45% already this year – how much would you need to get started today?
Could Bitcoin go to zero? ›
It is theoretically possible. Bitcoin has been around for close to 15 years now, and although it has survived several dramatic crashes before making new highs, its extreme volatile nature puts investors at risk of losing all their money.
When in 2024 is the next Bitcoin halving? ›
The next Bitcoin halving is set for ~April 19, 2024, bringing opportunities and uncertainties for the Bitcoin community. This event, built into Bitcoin's foundational code, changes the rewards for miners and could significantly influence Bitcoin's value and role within the broader ecosystem.
What will happen in 2024 Bitcoin halving? ›
The much-anticipated bitcoin halving event has come and gone, quietly marking a historic moment in the world of digital assets. On April 19, 2024, the block reward for bitcoin miners was reduced by half, from 6.25 BTC per mined block to 3.125 BTC per mined block. However, you wouldn't know it from the lack of fanfare.
Will Bitcoin drop after halving? ›
Since hitting record highs last month, bitcoin's price has sunk below $64,000. JP Morgan analysts said this week they expect the price to fall further after the halving. Establishing the reasons for a crypto rally is also hard, not least as there is far less transparency than in other markets.
What is Bitcoin halving in 2024? ›
A Bitcoin halving event occurs when the reward for mining Bitcoin transactions is cut in half. Halvings reduce the rate at which new coins are created and thus lower the available amount of new supply. Bitcoin last halved on April 19, 2024, resulting in a block reward of 3.125 BTC.
