An Analysis of Bitcoin’s Use in Illicit Finance (2024)

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Preface Introduction However, based on our research and discussions with industry experts, I have confidence in two conclusions: Download the 11 page PDF report on 'Analysis of Bitcoins Use in Illicit Finance --> here Support NCFA by Following us on Twitter! March 7, 2024NFT Market Divergence as Cryptocurrencies Soar March 7, 2024Rising AI Energy Use: A Call for Sustainable Innovation March 7, 2024Borderless Banking: The Role of Fintech in Simplifying Cross-Border Money Transfers for Canadians March 6, 2024Michael Katchen and Rachel Zimmer Launch Simple Ventures March 6, 2024BRICS Announces Launch of Blockchain Payment System March 6, 2024FINTRAC Responds to Cyber Incident with System Shutdown March 6, 2024NCFA Congratulates Canadian Fintechs Selected for the UK’s Fintech CTA Program March 6, 2024Experian to Include Apple’s BNPL Data in Credit Reports March 5, 2024SEC Delays Approval for BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF March 5, 2024Amazon to Invest $1 Billion in AI-Driven Robotics Startups March 5, 2024Anthropic Unveils Claude 3, Its Most Advanced Chatbot March 5, 2024United Efforts to Expand Access to Private Markets March 4, 2024Investors Launch Argo Digital Gold to Tokenize Gold March 4, 2024Expert Tips For Managing Small Business Finances March 4, 2024Conservative Backlash Leads to DEI Retreat on Wall Street NFT Market Divergence as Cryptocurrencies Soar Rising AI Energy Use: A Call for Sustainable Innovation Borderless Banking: The Role of Fintech in Simplifying Cross-Border Money Transfers for Canadians Michael Katchen and Rachel Zimmer Launch Simple Ventures BRICS Announces Launch of Blockchain Payment System FINTRAC Responds to Cyber Incident with System Shutdown NCFA Congratulates Canadian Fintechs Selected for the UK’s Fintech CTA Program Experian to Include Apple’s BNPL Data in Credit Reports SEC Delays Approval for BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF Amazon to Invest $1 Billion in AI-Driven Robotics Startups Anthropic Unveils Claude 3, Its Most Advanced Chatbot United Efforts to Expand Access to Private Markets Investors Launch Argo Digital Gold to Tokenize Gold Expert Tips For Managing Small Business Finances Conservative Backlash Leads to DEI Retreat on Wall Street Related Posts FAQs

Crypto for Innovation | Michael Morell | Apr 6, 2021

An Analysis of Bitcoin’s Use in Illicit Finance (1)

Preface

Today, the rapid adoption of blockchain technologies, and the cryptocurrencies they support, are on their way to revolutionizing global financial and payment systems. And, as expected, we are beginning to see a balancing between innovators and regulators, with prominent voices weighing in— some touting cryptocurrency as the future of finance and others raising concerns about the illicit finance implications of the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

Having devoted my career to protecting and advancing the national security interests of the United States, I recognize the importance of ensuring that technological advancements related to critical industries are accompanied by smart, informed, and timely adjustments to regulatory frameworks, policies, and laws. Those who safeguard our nation simply must have the right tools to do their jobs. Period.

See: Binance Under the Microscope: Former FBI Agent Discusses Possible Investigation of World’s Largest Crypto Exchange

It is against this backdrop that I, and two of my colleagues from Beacon Global Strategies, conducted an analysis regarding the degree of illicit activity associated with cryptocurrencies in general and Bitcoin in particular. The project was sponsored by a group of leading cryptocurrency innovators and investors. The terms of the engagement were that I would “call it as I see it,” with objectivity and transparency, just as I had done throughout my career as an intelligence analyst. I am hopeful that this analysis will help advance a healthy and fact-based dialogue as policymakers determine how to best ensure that these financial innovations serve the national interest.

Introduction

So far, 2021 has been a year of significant developments and milestones for Bitcoin. Its price surpassed $60,000 for the first time in its history.1 Major corporations, from Tesla to Square to MicroStrategy, are adding it to their balance sheets.2 Large banks are providing Bitcoin-related services, with Morgan Stanley saying it will soon offer access to three Bitcoin funds for its wealth management clients.3 Canada has approved Bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETFs).4 There is grow-ing momentum for Bitcoin’s emerging use as a store of value.

Yet there is a common belief that the Bitcoin market is rife with illicit activity, with many holding this belief pointing to several high-profile incidents. When the illicit Silk Road darknet market (DNM) was shut down in 2013, more than 26,000 Bitcoin were seized by the FBI.5 AlphaBay, formed in 2014 and widely viewed as an heir to Silk Road, was shuttered by international authorities in 2017 after building a customer base of over 400,000, with transactions conducted largely in Bitcoin.6 The 2017 WannaCry ransomware attack that infected more than 200,000 computers worldwide required payment in Bitcoin.7 Bitcoin was even used to help fund some of those involved in the insurrection at Capitol Hill on January 6.

See: Goldman Sachs Reconsiders Whether Bitcoin is Legitimate Asset

The conventional wisdom on this issue has been rein-forced by public statements from senior government officials on both sides of the Atlantic who have sug-gested that Bitcoin is used primarily for illicit activities. Eye-catching media reports, like a recent Buzzfeed article titled, “Secret Documents Show How Terrorist Supporters Use Bitcoin – And How the Government is Scrambling to Stop Them,” add weight to such remarks.

In undertaking our analysis, we consulted a diverse group of experts in the fields of cryptocurrency tech-nology and investment, financial services, payment sys-tems, global intelligence and security, financial regula-tion, and law enforcement. We interviewed executives from major blockchain analytics firms, former senior Treasury Department officials, a senior official from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and a former CIA intelligence analyst, as well as aca-demics, venture capital investors, former federal pros-ecutors, and a former leader in the banking industry. We also consulted studies from the U.S. Department of Justice; the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN); the Financial Action Task Force (FATF); major blockchain analytics firms; the Brookings In-stitution; RAND Corporation; BAE Systems; and the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.

Sigal Mandelker, former Acting Deputy Secretary of the Treasury and Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, as well as a former Department of Justice official and prosecutor, gave us a significant amount of her time to tap into her wealth of experience on the issue.

See: Online casino real money

I began this work expecting that I would find a set of facts supporting the conventional wisdom on this issue. After all, I believed that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are a largely anonymous way to transfer funds anywhere in the world nearly instantaneously. And I assumed that those officials who have raised concerns about the use of Bitcoin in illicit activity—with the objective of ensuring regulatory vigilance—must be among the best-informed experts on this issue.

However, based on our research and discussions with industry experts, I have confidence in two conclusions:

• The broad generalizations about the use of Bitcoin in illicit finance are significantly overstated.

• The blockchain ledger on which Bitcoin transactions are recorded is an underutilized forensic tool that can be used more widely by law enforcement and the intelligence community to identify and disrupt illicit activities. Put simply, blockchain analysis is a highly effective crime fighting and intelligence gathering tool.

Download the 11 page PDF report on 'Analysis of Bitcoins Use in Illicit Finance --> here

An Analysis of Bitcoin’s Use in Illicit Finance (2)The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org


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An Analysis of Bitcoin’s Use in Illicit Finance (2024)

FAQs

What is illicit use of Bitcoin? ›

Some forms of illicit cryptocurrency activity, such as darknet market sales and ransomware extortion, still take place predominantly in Bitcoin. [2] Others, like scamming and transactions associated with sanctioned entities, have shifted to stablecoins.

What do analysts say about Bitcoin? ›

Some analysts remain optimistic about bitcoin's prospects. Proponents of a bullish outlook highlight bitcoin's growing adoption as a store of value and its increasing integration into mainstream financial systems.

What criminal activity is using crypto? ›

Much like fiat currency, crypto has been used in connection with scams, ransomware, money laundering, child exploitation, terrorist financing, sanctions evasion, and darknet market commerce. In 2023, $24.2 billion of total crypto transaction volume was tied to illicit activity.

What approach is used by the financial model to value Bitcoin? ›

Today, a handful of approaches are considered appropriate for valuing Bitcoin and its peers, including those based on scarcity, its network, and its marginal cost of production. There are also those who deny that Bitcoin has intrinsic value, citing no company involvement, lack of adoption, and its convertibility.

Why is Bitcoin used by criminals? ›

Criminals can use cryptocurrencies instead of the formal banking system to move large sums of money which entails a potentially lower risk of being detected by law enforcement or the traditional financial institutions which are required to submit suspicious transaction reports.

How much of Bitcoin is used for illegal? ›

Sex, Drugs, and Bitcoin: How much illegal activity is financed through cryptocurrencies? Using novel approaches that exploit the blockchain to identify illegal activity, we estimate that around $76 billion of illegal activity per year is financed through payments in bitcoin (46% of bitcoin transactions).

How much will $1000 Bitcoin be worth in 2030? ›

If Bitcoin continues this pattern into 2030, the price could peak around 2029 or 2030. If Wood is correct and Bitcoin reaches $3.8 million, if you invested $1,000 in Bitcoin now, it would be worth $54,280 in 2030. This would result in a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 95%.

What is the analysis of Bitcoin? ›

Bitcoin is within an approximate horizontal trend channel in the short term. This indicates that investors are uncertain and waiting for signals of further direction. A break upwards will be a positive signal, while a break downwards will be a negative signal.

How much will $1 Bitcoin be worth in 2025? ›

Long-term Bitcoin price prediction for 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029 and 2030
YearYearly LowYearly High
2025$ 70,785$ 168,544
2026$ 111,134$ 177,384
2027$ 87,271$ 117,152
2028$ 76,257$ 118,360
2 more rows

Can you go to jail for using crypto? ›

If the government sees evidence that you may have participated in the unlawful gain of cryptocurrency, you could be charged with theft. These are just some of the federal criminal offenses that can be charged with the use of cryptocurrency.

How much crypto is illicit? ›

Executive Summary. Scams and frauds accounted for approximately a third of all crypto crime in 2023, according to TRM Labs data. Despite the overall proportion of total illicit funds in the crypto ecosystem shrinking by 9% year-on-year, criminals still handled over USD 34 billion worth of cryptocurrencies.

Can Bitcoin be traced back to me? ›

Bitcoin works with an unprecedented level of transparency that most people are not used to dealing with. All Bitcoin transactions are public, traceable, and permanently stored in the Bitcoin network. Bitcoin addresses are the only information used to define where bitcoins are allocated and where they are sent.

How is Bitcoin financially backed? ›

Backing a currency is done by the currency's issuer to ensure its value. Bitcoin, gold, and fiat currencies are not backed by any other asset. Bitcoin has value despite no backing because it has properties of sound money.

What is bitcoin's value based on? ›

What Drives the Price of Bitcoin? Bitcoin's price is primarily driven by supply, demand, fear, and greed. Some people argue that its price is correlated to its cost of production, its utility as a store of value, or its intrinsic value—but if these were true, it would not be as volatile and reactive as it is.

Does Bitcoin produce cash flows? ›

It is not a vehicle for investment, not a store of value, and not an inflation hedge. BTC is not a capital asset: it does not generate cash flows derived from economic returns on capital.

Can you go to jail for using Bitcoin? ›

You can face federal criminal charges for various acts using cryptocurrency, so it is essential to speak to an experienced federal criminal defense attorney when facing criminal allegations related to cryptocurrency.

What is illicit crypto mining? ›

What is illicit cryptomining? An illicit cryptominer is potentially unwanted or malicious code designed to hijack the idle processing power of a targeted device and misuse it to mine cryptocurrency. The mining activity is usually hidden or runs in the background without obtaining consent from the user or admin.

How can Bitcoin be illegal? ›

While Bitcoin is welcomed in many parts of the world, several countries are wary of its volatility and decentralized nature. Some also perceive it as a threat to their current monetary systems while being concerned about its use to support illicit activities like drug trafficking, money laundering, and terrorism.

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