There was a time when Altria Group (MO 3.78%) -- back when it was still called Philip Morris -- was a powerhouse of a company. Although the tobacco giant has faced predictable problems linked to the health risks of smoking since the 90s, it's still managed to grow its top and bottom lines between then and now.
The past few years, however, have been measurably different for Altria and its peers. The entire tobacco business is at a tipping point thanks to ongoing smoking-cessation campaigns. For the second year in a row, Altria's 2023 revenue fell from the prior year's levels, as did the total number of cigarettes it sold. This year's results aren't expected to be meaningfully better, either. It's not too tough for investors to find companies with better growth prospects.
Yet, there's still a narrowly focused case to be made for stepping into Altria stock at this time.
Tobacco doesn't have much of a long-term future
Veteran investors probably know the history here. Until 2003 Altria was known by its flagship cigarette brand Philip Morris, although it's been more than just that label. It also holds the rights to make and sell Marlboro cigarettes within the U.S., plus a handful of other, lesser-known brands. Beyond cigarettes, Altria is the name behind Skoal and Copenhagen oral tobacco products, plus vaping brands like NJOY and heated tobacco products from Horizon. It even holds minority stakes in beer and cannabis companies.
It's a good mix. If U.S. consumers are going to enjoy a nicotine-based vice, Altria stands ready to serve them.
The fact is, however, all of these categories of products are living on borrowed time.
Take the data from a recent Gallup poll regarding smoking, for instance. As of 2023, 12% of U.S. adults smoke cigarettes, extending a long-term downtrend from more than 40% as of the 1970s. Fewer people are picking up the habit, too. Gallup reports that during the early 2000s, roughly one-third of young adults were at least occasional smokers. Now that number has been pared back to only 10%.
If you don't start smoking when you're younger, you're less likely to do it when you're older.
Vaping is catching on, to be fair, explaining at least part of tobacco usage's decline. Consumers of all ages still don't overwhelmingly see e-cigarettes as a remarkably safer alternative, however. That's a key reason the CDC reports e-cigarette usage from 14.1% to 10% among U.S. teenagers in 2023.
Connect the dots. The smoking-cessation movement's supporters are winning the war, and it's unlikely that Altria or any other tobacco giant will be able to turn the tide.
That doesn't mean Altria doesn't still have something to offer investors in the meantime.
Not much immediate danger
Don't misread the message. Headwinds are blowing. They're just blowing incredibly slowly. Sheer population growth is now offsetting a great deal of the declines in the domestic prevalence of smoking. Indeed, Gallup's calculation that 12% of U.S. adults smoked in 2023? That's actually up from 2022's figure of 11%.
In the meantime, although teens are now doing it less, the 18-to-24-year-old crowd remains a sizable cohort of e-cigarette users. They're also more likely to vape as well as smoke traditional cigarettes. Therefore, this age demographic is still a prime customer for tobacco companies like Altria no matter how these people choose to get their nicotine fix. There may not be a great number of them. But this group is also least likely to even attempt kicking either habit.
The point is, Altria can look forward to many, many more years of measurable demand for its goods whether or not they're tobacco-based.
This demand drives business that's remaining surprisingly profitable too, all things considered. Despite ever-rising costs in a challenging environment, half of last year's revenue was turned into operating income, while over 8% of the company's top line became adjusted net profits. And that was a pretty typical year, mirroring 2022's numbers.
This reliable flow of earnings of course supports Altria's equally reliable quarterly dividend, which has not only been paid like clockwork for decades, but (after adjusting for spinoffs and splits) has been raised every year for the past 54 years.
And this is where the case for owning Altria stock starts taking shape. There may not be any meaningful growth left in store. However, there's a ton of dividend income still left to be dished out before the company finally runs out of enough paying customers to continue making dividend payments as it is now. Newcomers will be stepping in while the dividend yield is an incredible 9.6%.
Altria's a great income stock now even if it won't be forever
Exactly how long will Altria be able to keep paying this big dividend? That's just it -- nobody knows for sure. It should be at least several more years; it could be several more decades. It's impossible to know how the world will view smoking and vaping in the future, just as it's impossible to know what the industry's legal landscape will look like down the road. Stock buybacks completed in the meantime will help support per-share payouts. Income-minded investors buying into this big dividend will just want to keep their finger on the pulse of the company's business; you'll know when you know.
Just make sure you don't wait too long to make your exit. This income-oriented equity isn't going to work like a bond, where you collect a return of your original principal once the bond matures and stops paying interest. Once Altria is no longer able to maintain its current dividend payments, the stock will have little to no value left to investors.
If you need growth and don't care about income right now, of course, there's little point in owning this terminal tobacco titan.
James Brumley has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
