A stock market crash and a Great-Depression-style economy are among the boldest forecasts for 2023. (2024)

FAQs

Could the stock market crash and the Great Depression have been prevented? ›

The Federal Reserve could have prevented deflation by preventing the collapse of the banking system or by counteracting the collapse with an expansion of the monetary base, but it failed to do so for several reasons. The economic collapse was unforeseen and unprecedented.

Simply put, the stock market crash of 1929 caused the Great Depression because everyone lost money. Investors and businesses both put significant amounts of money into the market, and when it crashed, tremendous amounts of money were lost. Businesses closed and people lost their savings.

“The American economy is not in a silent depression. It's not even in a depression at all,” House said. “When we came into 2023, many economists thought we might slide into a recession over the course of the year, but growth in goods and services and in trade have all remained far stronger than we anticipated.”

Among the more prominent causes were the period of rampant speculation (those who had bought stocks on margin not only lost the value of their investment, they also owed money to the entities that had granted the loans for the stock purchases), tightening of credit by the Federal Reserve (in August 1929 the discount ...

It's possible in principle, but we'll have to move fast. If there is a slump that spreads to the first world oustside the U.S., then we have got to cut interest rates, start spending that budget surplus ... The Great Depression would have been easy to stop in 1930. It was very hard to get out of by 1935.

Invest in defensive stocks

Their valuations don't take a major hit even when the market is under a deep sell-off mode. So, investing in defensive stocks is one of the most popular strategies to prevent the stock market crash from affecting your investment portfolio.

Men and women lost their life savings, feared for their jobs, and worried whether they could pay their bills. Fear and uncertainty reduced purchases of big ticket items, like automobiles, that people bought with credit. Firms – like Ford Motors – saw demand decline, so they slowed production and furloughed workers.

Stock market crashes wipe out equity-investment values and are most harmful to those who rely on investment returns for retirement. Although the collapse of equity prices can occur over a day or a year, crashes are often followed by a recession or depression.

World unemployment peaked at nearly 30% in 1932 and remained in double digits through the decade. German and US production dropped to 53% of their 1929 levels. One nation after another abandoned the gold standard in the 1930s.

ITR Economics is projecting that the next Great Depression will begin in 2030 and last well into 2036. However, we do not expect a simple, completely downward trend throughout those years. There will be signs of slight growth that pop up during this period.

Is a depression coming in 2024? ›

The US economy is headed for a recession in the middle of 2024, Citi's chief US economist said. The economic data seems strong but is hinting at signs of a decline, as seen in the latest jobs report. Credit-card delinquency rates are also on the rise, and retail sales data has shown a drop in activity.

“To be sure, the economy is slowing, and the job market is cooling, but we are not in a depression,” said Sung Won Sohn, professor of finance and economics at Loyola Marymount University and chief economist at SS Economics.

The 1929 crash didn't cause the Great Depression outright, with only 10% of Americans invested in the market, but it lowered consumer spending, caused panic that worsened an ongoing recession, reduced corporations' assets and hurt their future prospects, and contributed to a banking crisis.

Business titans such as William Boeing and Walter Chrysler actually grew their fortunes during the Great Depression.

To save money, families neglected medical and dental care. Many families sought to cope by planting gardens, canning food, buying used bread, and using cardboard and cotton for shoe soles. Despite a steep decline in food prices, many families did without milk or meat.

Even if stocks were due for a downturn, a more aggressive tightening of monetary supply by the Fed could have deflated the market and perhaps helped avoid the crash, most economists argue. Most also agree that the Fed then blundered by tightening after the crash, exacerbating and extending the Great Depression.

However, as a singular event, the stock market crash itself did not cause the Great Depression that followed. In fact, only approximately 10 percent of American households held stock investments and speculated in the market; yet nearly a third would lose their lifelong savings and jobs in the ensuing depression.

Several individuals who bet against or “shorted” the market became rich or richer. Percy Rockefeller, William Danforth, and Joseph P. Kennedy made millions shorting stocks at this time. They saw opportunity in what most saw as misfortune.

Explanation: The U.S. stock market did not crash in March of 1929 due to a few combined factors of economic optimism and certain banking interventions. In this period, the roaring twenties were still in full swing, fueling economic optimism that boosted trust in stock market investments.